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TraderRob

 
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  • Is It Time to Get Out of Bonds? [View article]
    The question in the title is valid...

    But my answer would be, "get out of bonds and go where?"

    Clearly there's no conviction in equities and it will be another quarter before any convincing rebound in macro data could even muster a turnaround higher in equities.

    Maybe gold... the December 1255 futures calls on GC (Gold) have been hot recently. Playing that is fun. The VIX is weak. SPX is weak... It's a spread trader's game here, until it isn't and we break through a range... Hazards abound......
    Aug 19 06:08 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • One Step Closer to Explicit Debt Monetization [View article]
    Yes I agree with you on the TYO, but most homegamers don't have the exposure to futures and futures options. Those are certainly the way to go if you have conviction and time it right. Long dated expiration futures options are the way I like to play this, but I feel that the majority of SA readers are probably running on ETFs for exposure.

    It looks like the 10-yr will go lower in the mean time, so entry is a ways off... First stocks decline and treasuries spike, then treasuries fall and gold spikes, then gold stagnates and food spikes... and that's about the end of the world folks...
    Aug 12 08:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China's Government to Banks: Here Comes Trouble [View article]
    Great piece... I've been covering the "off balance sheet" issue since Feb., it's a big deal. Don't expect local governments to be able to sustain themselves once these loans are forced to be accounted for.
    Aug 12 02:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • One Step Closer to Explicit Debt Monetization [View article]
    Great article InflationTrader. First I've seen in SA in a long string of trash...

    All you needed to say is summed up in this quote from the piece, "Bond buyers are going to increasingly feel bulletproof until one day they are not."

    The 10yr yield is near the lowest on record as debt/GDP nears the highest on record. You don't need a calculator to figure out where the Yield is headed in the long term. It's all a matter of timing now.

    I really don't understand why all the so called "long term investors" don't just park 100% of their IRA in the TYO (3x 10 yr Treasury Bear ETN)???

    It may take a while for wonderland to unfold, but TYO is a winner!
    Aug 11 12:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Making Sense of Low Bond Yields [View article]
    If you didn't read the article and skipped to this comment, good for you, you've saved yourself some time.

    Bond yields are lower because the fed put a floor on the securities held portion of it's balance sheet at $2 trillion USD. They are planning to use revenues from performing MBS they had bought of Fan and fred to purchase 10+yr Treasury debt.

    That's how you make sense of low bond yields...

    Will they stay low? Of course not. Does anyone seem to care? Of course not.

    See you in the bread line with our wheelbarrows full of cash...
    Aug 11 12:09 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China: The Mother of All Bubbles [View article]
    ignorant
    Aug 10 10:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Equities Update: Stocks End Lower, Helped Modestly By Fed's Latest Pledge [View article]
    God Almighty, will someone please say something worth saying???

    Markets have been salivating over the Fed "stimulus" for the past three sessions, and now that they have it the bulls don't know what to do.

    How is the Fed's plan to purchase T-Bonds with MBS revenues bullish? How is this going to do ANYTHING to change the trajectory of the economy? Okay, so we're going to see lower mortgage rates and potentially lower credit card rates...

    Why didn't someone think of this earlier, since high borrowing costs have been the factor leading to lower consumer spending, lower production growth, home sales tanking, etc., etc., etc.

    The only thing that will do anything to stop this economy from tanking this year is more government spending. Perhaps the real strategy behind Bernanke purchasing treasuries is to buffer the spike in T-bond yields, which would result from the government's stimulus 2.0.

    Wonderland Continues
    Aug 10 08:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China: The Mother of All Bubbles [View article]
    Okay... maybe you should read some of my stuff and stop flashing off snide comments with no basis. I have no interest in owning stocks for the long run, nor would I advise others to do so.
    Aug 10 11:46 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Bernanke Been Backed Into a Corner? Think Again [View article]
    Come on SA... Really? This guy's piece is already ridiculous from the first line. He's talking about the Fed cutting rates... Yeah, maybe he didn't get the memo... Rates are cut to 0%, as he states in his intro.

    Maybe he's referring to MBS purchase plans or Treasury bond purchases... but he seems to just be awestruck by some kind of negative interest rate scheme up Big Ben's sleeve.

    Also hats off for the usage of "opine", definitely a scholar with a simple two step plan that will save us all. Horray!!

    Damn it, I'm reading the whole article now and realize that his plan IS AN MBS PURCHASE PROGRAM. That is quantitative easing just with a couple degrees of separation!!!
    Aug 10 07:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Economy Will Recover With Inflation, Not Deflation, Likely to Follow [View article]
    Not sure if you read my comment, but that was kinda the point I was trying to make...

    No room for a little facetious jarring in your busy schedule of board meetings at the PE group? Or are you just using the label "private equity" to describe your IRA so that you'll sound important?
    Aug 10 07:28 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China: The Mother of All Bubbles [View article]
    Mr. Quinn, you really do have a lot of time to field these delightful comments. I trust not on University time...
    Aug 10 07:23 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China: The Mother of All Bubbles [View article]
    A bit late to the show here James, but nice piece. The charts look great, but since it is China, I'd like to know if those were independant numbers or 'ol Wen's numbers.

    The issue with the china bubble which I would like to expand on, rests solely on real estate valuations, yes, but there's more to the story.

    China's public finance issues are the real problem. In China the highest tiers of government spend more then their sub governments and receive proportionately more revenue. Therefore the Munies and Counties are the poorest, and around 2000 had major shortfalls. They were poor and without basic social services and infrastructure.

    Then a trend of "off balance sheet financing" caught on in the small governments as real estate in China began to take off. Local governments began pledging government land as collateral for loans from private banks. Of course they had no intention of paying it off, because the politicians would hope to be promoted after they found a way to make this money appear from nowhere.

    So it began and has continued until now, that the government has been leveraging the value of real estate to finance basic services and projects within it's borders; amassing huge debts which would break at the slightest fall in land values.

    Get the full story, which I wrote in an international op-ed for the Korea Times newspaper:

    www.koreatimes.co.kr/w...
    Aug 10 05:24 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Economy Will Recover With Inflation, Not Deflation, Likely to Follow [View article]
    The good 'ol "double dip"... "Will we get it?" "Will we not?"

    Can we all assume for five seconds that we're adults, who are intelligent, and who don't need to use the kind of lingo one would expect to hear at the employee water cooler of a Scott Trade office?

    No I guess we can't, because all we want to talk about is the double dip. But who the heck really cares? What we care about is whether the S&P 500 is going recede. Not the economy.

    YES, the S&P is going to go down, and whether it takes the economy with it is of no real concern to my investment portfolio. Few that are reading this are still in the positions they held in 2007, so we know that the whole "long term outlook" thing is complete BS.

    Look at the charts and tell me why the market recovered last Friday when an economy signals that it is maintaining 9.5% unemployment with 1.5 million workers exiting the labor force in the past 3 months. Tell me why the market is trading higher on days where the street is anxiously anticipating more QE and Stimulus.

    We are a nation of junkies and it's time to go to rehab. It's like that show intervention... They can't force them to go, but they can follow them around with a camera as they drink 2 liters of Johny Red and then shoot heroin between their toes... The QE and Stimulus will continue because it would be political suicide to say "we were wrong" and without it we will hit the bottom quicker. Like the addict, we'll only seek help when we're out of options and afraid for our lives.

    Get a reality check...

    www.diamondslice.com/2.../
    Aug 10 05:13 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Global Market: 'Goodnight and Good Luck' [View article]
    Tom no worries here... I'm always looking for a bit of jarring

    Cheers and Happy Hunting!
    Jul 5 08:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Global Market: 'Goodnight and Good Luck' [View article]
    Okay let's play...

    Check out the site for the full list of positions we hold, only SDS was related to this article.

    Others include: DTO, VXX, DRV

    Our trading Ledger (www.diamondslice.com/d.../) is updated weekly, while our twitter feed @ DS_SHOUTBOX reveals our trading positions on a daily basis...
    Jul 2 11:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
222 Comments
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