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TraderRob

 
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  • Google and the Evolution of Search III: What's Next in Search? Much, Much Better Search [View article]
    What makes Google so effective is it's wide range of advertising channels, through which it makes contact with consumers. Ad Sense has taken advertising out of the hands of traditional marketing firms and made advertising revenues accessible to any person or corporation with available web space. Google has been so effective at creating a trusted horizontally integrated media franchise that consumers wishing to use their cloud computing platforms or simply watching free video through their subsidiary You Tube come in contact with relevant advertising, which may be earning money for any number of entities. While the company has the capacity to reach into any form of digital business, such as their recent release of a web browser and mobile phone, the business platform ultimately "brings home the bacon" in the form of advertising dollars.

    The empire continues to grow... let's hope it doesn't become one bent on evil.
    Jun 7 03:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Friday Bank Failure #37 [View article]
    S&L was a different era before the widespread consolidation similar to the one to be witnessed in the near future. The result of the S&L crisis was the consolidation of local banks into regionals, while the current trend will yield regionals combining with other regionals and nationals to stay afloat. The FDIC can do it's job with these regionals but is under-capitalized to combat failure by any of the 19 largest.
    Jun 7 01:46 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Takes Stock of Crude Realities [View article]
    GS are the smart money, but they might also be the dirty money. Heavy Handed Hank forcing liquidity down the throats of the nations largest banks and the current GS captain Blankfein in cahoots with Big Ben during last minute stress test alterations suggest gray lines and mixed interest.

    Corruption aside, Goldman predicted the price/barrel of crude would rise to $300 during the summer of '08 at a time near the $147 peak for the commodity. There's no question that an inflated USD will cause the price of commodities to rise as Treasury debt becomes increasingly devalued, yet the actual demand for the resource misrepresented under the current price structure.
    Jun 4 04:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank ETF Investors: Regionals Are Not too Big to Fail [View article]
    As the foreclosure moratorium ended in March the number of defaults and thus foreclosures will undoubtedly rise. This will be a drain on consumers' balance sheets, yet the real issue is the jump in REO (real estate owned) properties seen in April that will continue to parallel increased foreclosures into the future. REO's aren't often discussed by mainstream media, but they are extremely important given the current recession. REO's are the properties which have gone into foreclosure where no reasonable bids were made at auction and banks were forced to buy back and hold the properties on their balance sheets. These are the properties responsible for the "write downs" that banks have endured to date and an increase in REO's will be solely responsible for the bankruptcies of hundreds of regional banks moving forward.
    May 22 01:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nasdaq 100 Bounces Nicely Off Its 50-DMA [View article]
    I just pulled up a chart of the NASDAQ-100 and I think you've got the wordage mixed up a bit. The trend line in your chart looks more like the 200 Day SMA @ 1375 on Monday's close. It looks like the NAS100 might break below that "nice" level by the end of Tuesday trading as it's trading down 30 points at 1365 (12:17pm). Also notable is the fact that the NAS100 is trading 7%+ above its 50 day and 10%+ above its 100 day. The chart is telling us the NADAQ is incredibly strong... do the fundamentals verify the trend or does it seem more likely that the U.S. Tech Leaders may be ahead of themselves?
    May 12 12:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is the Recession Over? [View article]
    *** Diluting not deluding... sorry
    May 7 03:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is the Recession Over? [View article]
    To the "green shoots" in unemployment argument, I'm less than convinced. Output is falling faster than manufacturers can slash jobs and the cost per unit of labor jumped 16% in the first quarter of 2009. While inventories have fallen substantially, a "turnaround" in manufacturing is unlikely given the current conditions plus the unknowns from GM and Chrysler mentioned above.

    Concerning the cost of credit, the Fed has committed to buying Treasury notes as large as 30-yr contracts to the tune of 300 billion dollars in order to keep rates low and finance the $2 trillion of stimulus put in place to date. The U.S. is deluding it's shareholders so to speak as it floods the Treasury market with new paper. How long can the Fed beat the 30-yr note below the 3% mark it is comfortable with. Yes the short term paper has fallen out of favor, but this is extremely normal given the "flight from safety" given a 30% run in the S&P 500 over a two month period.

    Copper and the dry shippers are naturally rallying alongside U.S. equities and on stimulus plan announcements from china, but I argue these are simply the result of the far reaching "hope for global recovery trade".

    Jobless claims outpaced the true deterioration in the economy as firms slashed jobs given the negative outlook of firms leading into the 1st quarter, so a pull back makes some since. While the shift in the second derivative of job destruction has been a breath of fresh air, it is extremely possible that we expected too much destruction in Q1 and the real pain will come as firms realize they might miss Q2 guidance and begin roll more heads down into Mrs. Antoinette's lap.
    May 7 03:57 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Verizon, AT&T: Trouble Ahead for Wireless Carriers? [View article]
    I appreciate the analysis and definitely agree with the deterioration that must be felt by major wireless players, especially AT&T, due to expensive device subsidies. Wireless has held up nicely throughout the downturn as consumers cling for dear life to their data plans and unlimited use contracts. Contract erosion due to pre-paid plans further strengthen the argument for a dismal consumer.
    May 7 03:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks to Watch if Crude Oil Heats Up [View article]
    Tickets are cheap on the "buy commodities bus" with all of the chatter about hard and soft resources, yet we've seen a historic run up in these recently. While crude is correlated to SQM I think the correlation is less signifcant than the correlation of fertilizer stocks to soft commodities. The inflation play isn't out of the gates yet as deleveraging is still the trend, so I'd pay close attention to the tethered relationship that all commodities are exhibiting with respect to global equity prices. Take a step back and wait for a pull back.
    May 7 03:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peak Oil as a Function of Earth's Volume [View article]
    An ill composed argument. The title refers to "oil as a function of the Earth's volume", yet no mathematical functions to be found. Disappointing at best.
    Apr 29 12:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Preview from Europe: Swine Flu, Stress Tests and Green Shoots [View article]
    While U.S. stimulus may be siphoned off by European "green" energy producers, the prospects for growth in the EU are dismal at best. Germany has seen major declines in manufacturing, foreshadowing drastic rises in unemployment for the manufacturing leader. While the EU has extensive safety net programs for their unemployed, high taxes throughout the Union won't make up for the decline in profits among its citizens and firms, causing substantial declines federal revenues. Watch as this region lags the global economy in growth for the next few years. Government subsidies aimed at keeping EU firms afloat may stifle export destruction while a rise in the cost of living makes up the difference.
    Apr 29 12:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Snap-On: The Future Looks Promising [View article]
    We may see a pop in sales for "best in breed" brands in many sectors of retail. Snap-On has been producing professional grade wrenches dating back to the 1920's and have since integrated the brand into a wide spectrum of shop tools and equipment. Tax rebates and cuts from the stimulus will allow some middle income earners a one-time pop in disposable income that should benefit brands like Snap-On. Dire economic times inspire many to plunge into DIY projects instead of taking the car to the shop, causing the return on investment of "Lifetime Warranty" products like Snap-On to become more attractive.
    Apr 29 11:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Equities Are Likely Heading Lower: Resist the Temptation to Short Them [View article]
    Inflation is not a real threat in the short term. All firms are hoarding cash and non-AAA+ credit rated firms are unable to raise capital. Deleveraging is the current reality and will continue until the consumer resurfaces. Take a look at Goldman's store sales data for April minus Easter week... not exactly consumer renaissance.
    Apr 28 11:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Stress Tests: Tangible Common Equity a Critical Metric [View article]
    The problem is that the government doesn't want to make any specific requirements for banks. They have endorsed a "hand holding" mentality when addressing banks and will not end up announcing any tangible information concerning banks.

    The banks are holding a ridiculous amount of real estate on their balance sheets as the median home prices are still falling throughout the country.

    Anyone with the mental capacity to do simple subtraction could make short term profits borrowing money at 0.5% and lending it at 4.75%. And what about the consumer?

    The hope in the market is ridiculous and can't sustain itself as stocks are trading around and above 100 and 200 day SMA's in some cases.

    Hello... anybody home McFly???


    Apr 24 04:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Paring Back on My Leveraged ETFs [View article]
    I agree the market must sell off from these levels. Among those of us who follow "top down" signals along-side sentiment and momentum, this market has jumped off the track. What I find most significant is the apparent ability of bank stocks to gain every time earnings for other banks come in better than expected. Investors' optimistic take on Banks and Retailers will not stick. Take a look at these retail stocks, many of which are trading upwards of their 200 day SMA's!!!

    For those who want to stay in equities, find somewhere to hide that hasn't had a run. The best "non-short" positions are gold or T bills.
    Apr 24 01:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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