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  • Global Market: 'Goodnight and Good Luck' [View article]
    In the uncertainty lies the evidence for my Bearish stance... and also the major sell off today in global equities and production input commodities...
    Jun 29, 2010. 10:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed Stands Pat for an Extended Period [View article]
    Marc, the reason you're seeing bond yields on flagship western debt, is because there is a flight to safety underway. The so called "pocket book votes" are actually just money coming out of equities and into relatively safer assets as managers reallocate. It's like when the troops fall back from the outposts to the fortress. When the whole kingdom flees to the fortress within the fortress, we'll know we are unraveling... those places will be cash and then gold.
    Jun 24, 2010. 05:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed Stands Pat for an Extended Period [View article]
    I think I heard CNBC bleep out some of the FOMC announcement... Bernanke looks like he's staring down a freight train
    Jun 24, 2010. 02:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Baltic Dry Index Down 17 Days in a Row [View article]
    Anyone who reads this article and calls for commodities to go higher in the next 3 months should be silenced with duct tape.
    Jun 23, 2010. 12:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Today in Commodities: Full Calendar [View article]
    I'm selling against you here Matt. Oil has failed at 75 bucks twice and each time has closed lower on the downside. Sure there's a few catalysts out there, but we're heading back to 70 before we break 75.
    Jun 10, 2010. 02:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The G20 Votes for Global Depression [View article]
    While I agree with many of these points, there is definitely a certain atmosphere of bullishness in the U.S.

    Geitner went to the G20 waving the red, white and blue, calling for more spending, less fiscal responsibility, and shunned the calls among EU states for "austerity measures".

    We heard from Germany's Angela Merkel on Monday that they will enact 80 billion euros of cuts over 4 years, aiming to bring their deficit to 0.35% per year. If the rest of the EU follows suit they will have recessions in the short term but may avoid depression.

    I wish I could say the same for the U.S. economy. Check out our recent article that examines the G20 outcome and responses from the smartest guys in the room over at PIMCO...
    Jun 8, 2010. 02:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Today in Commodities: Market Dichotomy [View article]
    All should realize fundamental differences exist between precious metals (i.e. gold and silver) and industrial input commodities (i.e. Crude Oil, Copper, Wheat, Sugar, Pork Bellies, etc.).

    Crude Oil has all the fury of passionate carry traders now covering positions, the inflation play which is now defunct, and the recovery play that is clearly not reality...

    Crude stands to lose a lot, but that doesn't mean gold and silver are going down with it.... remember that.
    Jun 6, 2010. 03:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Not Just Hungary [View article]
    As an analyst living in Korea, I can tell you that Asia for one, thinks that this "issue" in EU is not connected.

    I guess they missed the memo, "it's about the coupling... stupid".

    Decoupling was debunked during the global recession when there was no where to hide, because financial markets are extremely liquid and therefore intertwined through every back door and down every alley on the planet.

    How many Hungary, Romania, and Kazahkstans fail at auction or haircut the big boy Western Financial players before the shell game goes bust?
    Jun 5, 2010. 12:04 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Not Just Hungary [View article]
    Take a note from Kazahkstan and force holders to take haircuts...

    Or wait, that would definitely make the holes in the EU Sovereign backstop far too visible... we'd better keep the responsible fiscal activity to the Kazahkstanians and the monopoly money solvency can stay in the G20.

    Short the hype and leverage your perspective with three of our recent winning trades at
    Jun 4, 2010. 07:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market recap: Stocks fell from the beginning and kept sliding all day, thanks to... Hungary? It's a small country that will have little actual impact on the U.S., but the early headlines added a new layer of uncertainty about European debt problems. Then when jobs failed to hit their whisper number, the die was cast for the day. As concerns intensified again, investors turned away from equities and risky assets and back toward safe-haven shelters.  [View news story]
    They did more than "miss the whisper"... They missed the boat. +41k private jobs and revised down jobs in April?

    Find some alpha with our recent winning trades where we called a short term top in S&P 500 and Crude Oil, and an entry on a pullback to play the VIX as it soars higher. Get your analytical slice of the markets @
    Jun 4, 2010. 06:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Today in Commodities: Market Dichotomy [View article]
    Crude doesn't have anything left. Markets have been reading into the bad and writing off the good on the fundamentals front, and the general economic theme is proving now a good time to get out of your longs or start looking at shorts. The employment report was a monster...

    Check out our recent trade flash, where we called three trades in Oil, S&P 500, and the VIX which are all higher as we speak at
    Jun 4, 2010. 06:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Today in Commodities: Market Crossroads [View article]
    The BLS is a data collection service. If you have gripe with their efficiency or methods of collection, so be it, but let's not go too far down the rabbit hole in our heads...

    That said, we are definitely at a crossroads. In our view the S&P 500 has the reigns on global markets void of news from the EU, b/c the index is nudging right up against it's 200 day moving average at 1106.

    We have three public trades in the game. Long the VIX, Short the S&P 500, and Short Crude Oil. The Employment report will be the bellwether. If we get +500k jobs, we're covering those shorts. If we get less, we're waiting to see what the S&P 500 does near it's 200 day MA. If it crosses, we're back to cash sports fans!

    Check out our analysis @
    Jun 3, 2010. 05:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Today in Commodities: New Month, Fresh Perspectives [View article]
    Crude stalling at $75 bucks is no good for the bulls. I like your unbiased stance here Matt, but I have to disagree. We're short Crude and it doesn't look like the price is going to reach the 50 day SMA.

    The risks to growth are growing...

    Check out our recent bearish call on Crude, the S&P 500, and our long VIX play at
    Jun 2, 2010. 04:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weekly Spectrum: Adding Insult to Injury, Global Markets in Decline [View article]
    The interesting thing about interest rates is that they are all indirectly tied to each other, some more directly than others. The significance of the LIBOR rate is that it is a bellwether of the willingness of banks to lend capital to one another. We've seen the federal funds rate and discount rate in the U.S. plummet to record lows over the past 18 months and still we're in an environment of contracting consumer credit. Why is that? It's partly due to applicants having crummy financial situations, and the unwillingness of consumers to take on new debt amid a current trend of households "deleveraging" their lifestyles and cutting costs. This can be seen in the decline of cyclical credit via credit cards over the past year.

    However, banks in the U.S. and abroad have still been very hesitant to lend to consumers, and as a result the effects of the Fed's quantitative easing haven't been felt or taken advantage of by the majority of small businesses and households because banks have been unwilling to let the FREE MONEY out of the ranks of the banks themselves. Rather, we've seen banks lending to large institutions and among themselves as they use the cash to re-leverage their trading businesses and invest in risky assets (e.g. the S&P 500, Crude Oil, etc).

    So when LIBOR spikes it says that banks specifically doing business in the U.K., Europe, and the U.S. are pricing the risk of lending money to other banks for 3-months higher than they have since July 2010. If the banks are raising these rates among themselves, the effects will trickle down to every single loan they make to businesses and households as everything from mortgages to credit card fees rise, even as the economy is still stuttering and the housing market seems to be having a post-stimulus "relapse".

    Higher LIBOR = higher interest rates for the Western World
    Therefore, Lower growth
    May 31, 2010. 09:11 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Longer Will S&P Rally Go? [View article]
    @ buzzer

    The notion that Wall St cowboys are jumping in and steering the herd has been a popular stance, since it provides a sense of clairvoyance when markets seem very erratic. However, you might remember that even the big banks have been driving stocks up for the past year through prop trading and now stand to lose more than any other if equities turn around and go belly up. The selling we are seeing now, is the result of institutional selling, but it's rational selling that has finally perked up through the tar pit of exuberance, most recently coined as "wonderland."

    p.s. i'm really glad so many SA members are disagreeing with me now. It means there's still plenty of fish to eat.
    May 30, 2010. 08:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment