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TraderRob

 
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  • Equities Update: Techs Lead Lower [View article]
    There might be a lot of bears here on SA, but it doesn't mean we're wrong... SPX 100 day SMA breached for first time since April 2009!

    Check out this piece on how the China led rebound is running out of steam: www.diamondslice.com/d...
    Jan 29 02:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bernanke: Will He Stay or Will He Go? [View article]
    Obama now sees how it's sometimes difficult to talk to financial markets and I think he will be hesitant to hold Geitner's hand through the shadow in the valley of death without 'ol Ben carrying the torch a few yards ahead.

    Ben's a sure thing, because if he's gone the bottom will fall out and everyone (congress, Obama, Geitner, Blankfien, Dimon, etc.) knows it. Anything we see now is just a charade to give the popullist masses something to chew on while Obama raises taxes and tells us it's for the middle class.

    Take a break from the bs and get a true assesment of the market at www.diamondslice.com
    Jan 25 09:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Existing Home Sales Decline: Much Ado About Nothing? [View article]
    Ohh Calafia Beach... how surprising
    Jan 25 08:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Google Shares Dive Despite Earnings Beat [View article]
    I'd have to disagree with mysurgeon that this was a predictable miss. Google has been beating estimates and growing revenues through much of the economic downturn and this was a surprise to most.

    What is not surprising to me is that the CEO tried to mend over the strong stance made by Sergery Brin and Larry Page (co founders with majority voting power) in the conference call, making claims that Google still valued it's business in China. However Hu Jintao's government has been flexing muscles rather than resting them in recent months when it comes to direct competition with the U.S. and the recent hacks into U.S. firms by the Chinese are the first signs of Google pulling out. The MIT prodigy tag team have always ran the company with altruistic motto, "don't be evil", and I'd find it hard to believe that the majority voting rights between the two won't find at least a few things evil with-in the communist giant.

    Check out www.diamondslice.com for more macro analysis...
    Jan 21 11:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Equities Update: Another Steep Drop [View article]
    It's the Windsun mentality that has markets at these frothy levels. Bears were wrong on the way up for not listening to the stubtle whispers of market technicals and bulls will be wrong for the same reaasons if they aren't careful on the way down.

    Take a look at the WTIC crude oil spot. It just broke through the 50 day sma at 77.50 after a pause at the level amid a bearish MACD cross and led has acted as a leading indicator of the SPX in recent months. Don't take these moves lightly.

    Get a professional trader's edge at www.diamondslice.com
    Jan 21 10:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Earnings Preview: Google [View article]
    GOOG will undoubtedly blow out estimates, but the firm is too expensive up here at these levels, even with increased profits. Online marketing is just too good to pass up in the current environment; targeted, cheap, efficient.
    Jan 21 08:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kraft: Cadbury Accepts Final Offer [View article]
    Too bad Kraft felt they needed to push the deal through... selling the pizza division at a discount to buy Cadbury at a premium doesn't make much sense. But don't take my word for it... Take it from Warren Buffet.
    Jan 21 08:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing Starts vs. Skeptics [View article]
    No surprise here from Calafia Beach, more signs of recovery... It's nice to have that side of the argument from our friend's desk overlooking a beach in south Cali but it's tough to really take him seriously. Perhaps it's this type of manager whose clients believe the story and will never bring the money out of the game. Perhaps markets are moved more by an electoral system, where managers are trusted with making decisions for investors and thus strengthening the rigid nature of stable markets. Should we thank the recovery hawks for strengthening markets or shame them for pushing todays economic woes under the proverbial rug to fester and ferment for years?
    Jan 21 08:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Scott Brown’s Upset Senate Election Victory and Healthcare ETFs [View article]
    He definitely seemed to be enjoying the limelight during his acceptance speech and dropped more than a few hints on how he planned to block the bill.
    Jan 21 08:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Obama is set to announce new rules today limiting the size of banks and their proprietary trading in order to reduce excessive risk-taking. Supposedly the rules smack of Depression-era curbs, and could significantly harm big banks' bottom lines.  [View news story]
    Tax the banks and tell them to lend... something doesn't add up.
    Jan 21 07:36 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Banks to Face New Trading Restrictions [View article]
    Specific efforts to decrease risk taking by enacting specific constrictions on the activities within banks will not achieve their goal. Financial services firms in the United States are some of the most sophisticated, highly adaptable, and creative among all industries all over the world. As such, these restrictions on trading activities will only breed a new profit seeking endeavor and leave the entire industry littered with higher fees. Since most financial firms are horizontally diversified, the fees on trading activities will no doubt effect the cost of borrowing funds on everything from credit cards to home loans.

    As a moderate it's disappointing to watch Obama slide further and further left as he has come under heat for the spending on his watch and tried to recoup the losses by taxing the profitable American enterprise.

    Further Financial Market Analysis at: www.diamondslice.com
    Jan 21 07:34 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The NYT's Paywall [View article]
    The NYT is a powerful franchise and demands a great deal of respect as a leading international paper, but it is foolish to move straight into a paywall scheme. A bit of creativity is an order here. They are no doubt trying to emulate the WSJ paywall scheme which has fared well for the NY based business focused competitor, yet one news outlet which has a truly clever and inviting scheme is the FT.

    FT.com allows any unregistered user to view any two articles per day (IN FULL) for free. Then once a user registers for free on FT.com, they can access up to 10 articles per month free of charge. This scheme allows unregistered users access to articles from links, social media sites (Digg, Mixx, Newsvine, Twitter, etc.), and advertisements without an expensive monthly premium. This taste before you buy schema mixed with limited ads on the site allow the FT to capture revenue from dedicated readers while fostering a relationship with individuals new to the content.

    The NYT on the other hand is taking an elitist approach to the news business and should think twice before embarking on this path to exclusion in an environment where the news can be obtained for free from a hundred different sources.
    Jan 21 12:04 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China's Conundrum: Low Wages vs. Consumer Culture [View article]
    One element of the chines consumer equation rests in public rather than private finance. As we all transpose our western understanding for how compensation works here to a Chinese reality, we forget that the country is not truly a free market and that the government has assumed more control of late through it's stimulus measures. Like Mark pointed out, the governement may decide that one of the free economic zones has had it's run and open up another free market bubble elsewhere in an area where economically endentured farmers would jump at the chance to make a few yuan more per hour.

    China is a massive geographic locale where the mere transportation costs for one to pick up and move to a free economic zone for higher pay is unnafordable, causing for massive voids of prosperity from region to region.

    To my main point, Public Finance in China is so different from the U.S. and the vast majority of investors don't even know it. Yes we know it's communist, but did we know that the federal government there puts mandates on spending and economic growth which it then bears only a fraction of the cost. In China the trend is for the highest level of government to bring in more taxes than it pays out in benefits/spending. This relationship is true among lower tiers as well, where the regional governments pay a fraction of the cost of lower tier government expenditures despite mandating the magnitude of outlays in those sectors.

    The result are community governments which are literally at the mercy of the economy in those areas. These community governments partake in widespread off-balance sheet revenue raising, where the small amount of higher government funding is leveraged by investment in the private sector to pay their own bills. When the economy is too weak at these lower levels, the communities generally either pay for their education, healthcare, and infastructure themselves or go without it.

    We hear a great deal of "good news" coming from China across the pond, but the consumers in that country bear a very different economic burden in their every day lives from anything imaginable to most U.S. investors. Life is good for some Chinese and awful for others, while economic data is many times mis-construed or diliberately altered by public officials to support their goals. The new found domestic "strength" among the Chinese consumer base should be treated with skepticism as investors rely on the communist economy for global economic strength over the next year.

    For more macro analysis check out www.diamondslice.com
    Jan 20 10:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shorting the Double Dip [View article]
    It's no secret that the U.S. is in need of some selling points for Treasury debt, but the Chinese aren't stupid. They were one of the few major buyers when crude was at $40 and everyone thought they were crazy. They have excess U.S. reserves, but I think that a short term pop in treasury yields as haven's from riskier bets will be as transparent to the Chinese as it should to all of us. Treasury yields remain near thirty year lows and are unsustainable at these levels given the sheer amount of debt added to the U.S. balance sheet and the potential for more borrowing when the GSE's continue to need MBS backing past the proposed march deadline and the Dem's propose Stimulus 2.0. Make no mistake, Obama will ram another stimulus through congress if the market tanks and unemployment deepens.

    Follow treasuries closely and look for chances to short the 10 year, using a vehicle like TYO, once the safety relative to stocks wears thin and U.S. solvency is called back into question. China and India have already shown where they're parking their trade surpluses. Hint: A 4 letter word starting with "G"...
    Jan 17 04:40 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Dividend Stocks Still Trading Below Fair Value [View article]
    Dividend yields will only last as long as confidence remains for the firms to pay them. Trust the pharma tech play and Mickey D's, but don't put the farm on an insurance firm when you don't know where the premiums are getting stashed. Ask AIG about that one.

    Get a recap of where AA suggests industrials are headed this earnings season at www.diamondslice.com/d...
    Jan 15 10:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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