TradingHelpDesk

NY Times: Goldman Should Be Paying the National Debt

Very good NYT article. Thanks. Worth a read.

Is the Fed Getting Real About Valuation and Bubbles?

"Federal Reserve officials are stepping up scrutiny of the biggest U.S. banks to ensure the lenders can withstand a reversal of soaring global-asset prices".

They are too late... again.

Here's a list of the 2 safest banks in every state by Elliott Wave.

www.elliottwave.com/r....

5%+ Dividend Yields in the S&P 500

Sorry. Doh! Here's the right link:

www.elliottwave.com/r....


On Nov 22 08:13 AM TradingHelpDesk wrote:

> If you have to have equity exposure it's a great idea to go for dividend
> paying stocks with a good dividend coverage ratio. They should prove
> more defensive if we have another stock market retreat which in my
> view is becoming increasingly likely. I just see froth on the of
> price risky assets not real economic growth.
>
> Elliott Wave have done some great analysis comparing the 1929 collapse,
> subsequent 1930 dead cat bounce and the following depression to the
> 08/09 economic scenario we are experiencing now.
>

Top Three Singapore Banks by Assets

Interesting but of course size does not mean security. Lehman's was big after all!

For sector buffs here's a link to a Elliott Wave report that lists, in their opinion, the 2 safest banks in every US state. More interesting but painful reading from the perma-bears.

www.elliottwave.com/r....

Where's the Financial Accountability?

Good article. I wonder if the rating agencies actually learned anything from the 2008 chaos. Banks are still going bust and the excess liquidity from the Fed is just creating another risky asset price bubble.

Elliott Wave have done a review of the banking sector and have nominated the 2 safest banks in each state. Unfortunately, Gulp!, mine isn't one of them!

Source: www.elliottwave.com/r....

Goldman's Human Face

A criminal who apologises for his crimes is still a criminal.

Supply, Demand and the U.S. Dollar

You are write David. A nominal return of your capital is an economic poke in the eye if the real purchasing power of your capital has been eroded.


On Nov 22 07:56 AM Dave Wrixon wrote:

> Holding to maturity won't solve anything if inflation has rendered
> your principal, which is denominated in dollars, worthless.

Why a Market Crash Doesn’t Matter

"Investing giants like Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch are on record as ignorers of the general stock market. Instead, they are only interested in the specific companies they own."

Well that's obvious. If you own large stakes in a couple of dozen companies then of course the company specific issues are dominant in your mind. But there are millions of US investors who - on the advice of their consultants - have exposure to the wider market, the S&P 500, or Russell Indices, so for you to dismiss their wider "stock market" worries as unfounded is a bit unsympathetic.

Let's not forget the Dow 30 is lower now than it was 10 years ago. There's plenty to be legitimately worried about if you are exposed to equities I think.

Brazil and Petrobras - Part Deux

Great articles (parts 1 and 2).

Have been a big fan of the Brazilian economy for years and its progress is now much more concrete. The Olympics was well deserved too.

Bill Gross: Anything But 0.01%

You are right Bill.

The Fed have created another risky asset price bubble that has no relation to real and sustainable economic activity - of which we have very little.

Double-dip recession here we come.

Spend and Borrow: Economists Are Wrong Again

Keynes policies are nothing like the current US economic solution.

Keynes encouraged borrowing to invest in new projects that could generate new streams of economic wealth.

The current administration are papering over the cracks and its borrowing and monetary policy is encouraging speculation and 'consume now, pay later' capitalism which has already guaranteed us all another debt fuelled recession as bad as this one.


On Nov 22 08:19 AM Leftfield wrote:

> This Treasury bubble is the biggest of all time. Symbiotic relationships,
> such as with China, abound to keep the lid on for the moment. But,
> like tulip bulbs, the inherent worthlessness of this paper will become
> evident in time.
> Academic economists are an arm of the state, like MSM. So, they
> have no interest in examining the fallacy of "Keynesian" debt spending
> at these levels and for profoundly wasteful programs. And assume
> the government can absorb these quantities of private debt without
> consequences.
> It only adds up when you look at their track record.

Global Markets in Review: Share Prices Too Far Ahead of Economic Reality

I agree the prices of risky assets have gone beyond fair fundamental value. But the rally was inevitable due to the stimulus package and monetary policy. Recent confirmation from the Fed that it is to keep rates at 0.0%-0.25% for another six months will lead to another asset price bubble and a double-dip recession.

I see no real and sustainable economic activity just froth in markets and rising unemployment. The consumer, who historically contributed 2/3rds to economic activity, is not ready to replace the stimulus.

Unemployment is at 10.2% and rising. Another 7% are jobless but not on benefits. Another maybe 30 million workers are working part-time, or on less income compared to 3 years ago.

The Fed is making the same mistake as post 2001. It is confusing investor confidence, greed and speculation with real economic investment.

Elliott Wave did a great 75 page report on the issue for those with a little time on their hands!. Source: www.elliottwave.com/r....

5%+ Dividend Yields in the S&P 500

If you have to have equity exposure it's a great idea to go for dividend paying stocks with a good dividend coverage ratio. They should prove more defensive if we have another stock market retreat which in my view is becoming increasingly likely. I just see froth on the of price risky assets not real economic growth.

Elliott Wave have done some great analysis comparing the 1929 collapse, subsequent 1930 dead cat bounce and the following depression to the 08/09 economic scenario we are experiencing now.

Source: elliottwave.com/r....

The King Canute Economy: Governments' Futile Attempt to Stem the Tide

"While the peg certainly is responsible for much of the world's problems"

I couldn't disagree more. Anyone who blames a manipulated Chinese currency for the flaws of the US (and UK) economies needs to study basic economics.

The US recession was built on greed, borrowing and inadequate financial regulation. The US recession did not occur because of Chinese export strength.

It is Asia and China in particular that has helped the global economy come out of recession. Australia and Japan are the most obvious beneficiaries but there are others.

Spend and Borrow: Economists Are Wrong Again

Borrowing to consumer just brings forward economic activity. That debt has to be repaid later. Borrowing to speculate creates asset price bubbles. Only borrowing to invest in projects that can provide new streams of economic wealth and new jobs can create sustainable economic wealth. It economics 101. A basic lesson that the Fed and government seem to have forgotten.