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  • Eurozone Pays the Price for Pursuing Paper Wealth [View article]
    Nooby73, spot on again. You, Sir, have a brain the size of Texas.
    Jun 17, 2009. 05:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dr. Stephen Leeb on Commodities and Inflation - Is He a Genius or Alarmist? [View article]
    "BRAC". I like that a lot. Great article. I agree with the vast majority of your contents and it reinforces my view that the US is in a prolonged period of relative economic decline. The goods it imports, commodities, are going to suffer higher inflation than the the goods it typically exports. The US desperately needs a weaker dollar.

    Admittedly you could say the same of China but the Chinese balance sheet is fundamentally stronger and will enjoy GDP growth about 2.5 times higher than the US as 20 million Chinese a year move from the country to the cities and buy the goods you and I take for granted.
    Jun 17, 2009. 04:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eurozone Pays the Price for Pursuing Paper Wealth [View article]
    nobby73, great points.
    Jun 17, 2009. 03:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eurozone Pays the Price for Pursuing Paper Wealth [View article]
    Old limey, I did not say the US and UK would be spared a recession did I? I specifically said they are trailing the field to escape recession, primarily because the ECB cut rates so late and so slowly you would be forgiven for thinking they were trying to pre-empt the next recession, not fix this one.

    Nor did I say the US or UK were spared property prices declines. But ECB action is proving less effective than in the US or UK because there is less action in Europe. Anyone who thinks one monetary policy can fit 16 different countries is a politician first, a dreamer second and a bureacrat 3rd. Most worldy-wise economists would agree. And as for Europe bashing, I am not, I am ECB bashing. There is a difference.

    Have you even met a Central Bank chairman or someone on the ECB interest policy team or for that matter the BoE MPC committee. I have, and I can assure you there are not as smart as they think are, nor are they as smart as some of the better contributors here on SA.

    However, I greatly appreciate you would take the time to read and comment on my article and I look forward to correcting you again in the future.
    Jun 17, 2009. 03:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eurozone Pays the Price for Pursuing Paper Wealth [View article]
    Thank you both for taking the time to read and comment on my article.

    Re Spain, for years the Euro-zone interest rate, decided in Frankfurt, was inappropriate for both Spain (and Ireland). Anyone, and I mean anyone, was able to get a cheap mortgage which was the fault of both the ECB and the commercial banking sector.

    I struggle to see how a single interest rate can ever meet the unique needs of 16 different countries many of which are at different stages of the economic cycle and therefore require a country specific monetary policy.

    I also admit I pushed the envelope quite some way, in terms of my criticism, in an attempt to secure interaction and I totally empathise with your views whether they are aligned to mine, or represent the polar opposite view.
    Jun 17, 2009. 01:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Forex Trading Secrets: How to Profit from the G8 Summit [View article]
    I learn something new every time I read your articles. Thanks.
    Jun 14, 2009. 01:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.K. Outlook: Recession Might Be Over [View article]
    Every day that passes, without the new collapse in equities that you have been promising for weeks, your comments toward those who have hope are becoming more intellectually challenged.
    Jun 13, 2009. 01:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why We Over-Weight Emerging Markets [View article]
    I agree. Equity asset allocation strategies have embraced more Emerging Market assets in recent years, but not enough to maximise risk-adjusted returns. I think the US, Europe will continue their relative economic decline and that must reflect sooner or later in the under-performance of 'Western' risky assets compared to Asian equities, etc. Of course, it depends on one's investment horizon. But I am to invest for 5-10 years, I am very comfortable being over-weight Asia relative to any commonly used institutional benchmark.
    Jun 13, 2009. 11:39 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seeking Alpha Welcomes Its 3000th Contributing Author: William Smead [View article]
    Yes, an outstanding site. The InfoNgen tool is pretty damn good too. Most pleasing, two of my articles were syndicated by SA onto a link.

    Unbelievable. I typed in the article headline in Google Search and there were links on Reuters, AOL Money & Finance and bunch of other great sites.

    Thanks SA.
    Jun 11, 2009. 07:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Economy Watch: We're In an Inflationary Recession That May Start to Accelerate [View article]
    I hope I am right too. Millions of unemployed do as well.
    Jun 11, 2009. 07:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • UK Equity Bears Seek Early Hibernation [View instapost]
    Mistrofan, you are 100% right. Nominal increases in the price of assets, whether they be gold, oil or equities is worth little under a regime of loose monetary easing and near-reckless government spending. But in that environment with its long-term structural concerns isn't it better to have at least flat, or marginally positive economic growth, than to continue with negative GDP? Thanks for taking the time to read my article.
    Jun 11, 2009. 07:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DIY Stress Test 2: Final Spreadsheet [View article]
    Another genius on Seeking Alpha. I get more depressed, acutely aware of my own intellectual inadequacies, every time I re-visit this site.
    Jun 11, 2009. 01:09 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Rising Stock Markets Serve as a Confirmation of a Crashing Economy? [View article]
    Unfortunately, there are a lot more average traders than brilliant economists in this business. Accurate and thought-provoking analysis of the US economy doesn't move markets. Herds of buyers (or sellers) do. That is why you may be right, or wrong, re the near-term direction of equities, irrelevant of the fact you have a strong grip on the structural problems the economy faces.
    Jun 11, 2009. 12:11 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks Undervalued in Current Economic Environment [View article]
    Mad Hedge Fund Trader, are there 10 of you or something? I am amazed at your depth of knowledge and contacts. You are right, most of the time too. Anyway, onto business. Steinhilber, the writer, is correct I feel. Stocks, denominated in dollars, are going to get a secular boost over the next 5 years.... but not because we are entering a period of economic Nirvana, although GDP will recover, but because inflation is coming strong in 2010 and beyond and in pure monetary terms that will push the price of stocks up. In real purchasing power terms, things will also improve. Inflationary pressures have been deliberately manufactured by the Fed and US Gov to erode the real value of the debt burden. Gold, oil and equities will enjoy that inflation. The consumer less so. And did you know here in the UK we enjoyed positive GDP in April MoM? The bears will be sitting a bit lower in their seats shortly, hiding behind their trading screens.
    Jun 11, 2009. 11:48 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Falling Equities Still Key for U.S. Dollar [View article]
    This site, Seeking Alpha, is just excellent. There is little need to surf around from the FT to Reuters to Bloomberg. There is enough intelligent analysis, like this article, to keep abreast of the economy, learn and form one's own opinion. My own view is that the USD will and has to weaken further. I am convinced that's what the Fed, and US Gov want. A weaker dollar will fix the trade deficit and indirectly, via higher dollar inflation, help erode the real value of the trillions of debt. Equities should stay firm. I am not saying the structural problems are easy to fix, but GDP is going to be positive QoQ in Q3 and that will provide the excuse for more speculators to take the S&P 500 on another leg up to 1,000. Globally, the economy is recovering well. First estimates for UK GDP in April were positive. (I don't mean better than before, I mean literally positive MoM). China is looking at 7% GDP growth in 2009. Inflationary pressures are build fast, globally, though the bears on this site can't, won't, see it yet.
    Jun 11, 2009. 11:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment