Eurozone Pays the Price for Pursuing Paper Wealth [View article]
Thank you both for taking the time to read and comment on my article.
Re Spain, for years the Euro-zone interest rate, decided in Frankfurt, was inappropriate for both Spain (and Ireland). Anyone, and I mean anyone, was able to get a cheap mortgage which was the fault of both the ECB and the commercial banking sector.
I struggle to see how a single interest rate can ever meet the unique needs of 16 different countries many of which are at different stages of the economic cycle and therefore require a country specific monetary policy.
I also admit I pushed the envelope quite some way, in terms of my criticism, in an attempt to secure interaction and I totally empathise with your views whether they are aligned to mine, or represent the polar opposite view.
U.K. Outlook: Recession Might Be Over [View article]
Every day that passes, without the new collapse in equities that you have been promising for weeks, your comments toward those who have hope are becoming more intellectually challenged.
Why We Over-Weight Emerging Markets [View article]
I agree. Equity asset allocation strategies have embraced more Emerging Market assets in recent years, but not enough to maximise risk-adjusted returns. I think the US, Europe will continue their relative economic decline and that must reflect sooner or later in the under-performance of 'Western' risky assets compared to Asian equities, etc. Of course, it depends on one's investment horizon. But I am to invest for 5-10 years, I am very comfortable being over-weight Asia relative to any commonly used institutional benchmark.
Mistrofan, you are 100% right. Nominal increases in the price of assets, whether they be gold, oil or equities is worth little under a regime of loose monetary easing and near-reckless government spending. But in that environment with its long-term structural concerns isn't it better to have at least flat, or marginally positive economic growth, than to continue with negative GDP? Thanks for taking the time to read my article.
Can Rising Stock Markets Serve as a Confirmation of a Crashing Economy? [View article]
Unfortunately, there are a lot more average traders than brilliant economists in this business. Accurate and thought-provoking analysis of the US economy doesn't move markets. Herds of buyers (or sellers) do. That is why you may be right, or wrong, re the near-term direction of equities, irrelevant of the fact you have a strong grip on the structural problems the economy faces.
Stocks Undervalued in Current Economic Environment [View article]
Mad Hedge Fund Trader, are there 10 of you or something? I am amazed at your depth of knowledge and contacts. You are right, most of the time too. Anyway, onto business. Steinhilber, the writer, is correct I feel. Stocks, denominated in dollars, are going to get a secular boost over the next 5 years.... but not because we are entering a period of economic Nirvana, although GDP will recover, but because inflation is coming strong in 2010 and beyond and in pure monetary terms that will push the price of stocks up. In real purchasing power terms, things will also improve. Inflationary pressures have been deliberately manufactured by the Fed and US Gov to erode the real value of the debt burden. Gold, oil and equities will enjoy that inflation. The consumer less so. And did you know here in the UK we enjoyed positive GDP in April MoM? The bears will be sitting a bit lower in their seats shortly, hiding behind their trading screens.
Falling Equities Still Key for U.S. Dollar [View article]
This site, Seeking Alpha, is just excellent. There is little need to surf around from the FT to Reuters to Bloomberg. There is enough intelligent analysis, like this article, to keep abreast of the economy, learn and form one's own opinion. My own view is that the USD will and has to weaken further. I am convinced that's what the Fed, and US Gov want. A weaker dollar will fix the trade deficit and indirectly, via higher dollar inflation, help erode the real value of the trillions of debt. Equities should stay firm. I am not saying the structural problems are easy to fix, but GDP is going to be positive QoQ in Q3 and that will provide the excuse for more speculators to take the S&P 500 on another leg up to 1,000. Globally, the economy is recovering well. First estimates for UK GDP in April were positive. (I don't mean better than before, I mean literally positive MoM). China is looking at 7% GDP growth in 2009. Inflationary pressures are build fast, globally, though the bears on this site can't, won't, see it yet.
Economy Watch: We're In an Inflationary Recession That May Start to Accelerate [View article]
"We're In an Inflationary Recession That May Start to Accelerate" You almost got the headline right. It should read "We're In an Inflationary Recovery That May Start to Accelerate". There is a whole world out there outside of the US. In the UK for example the respected National Institute of Economic and Social Research predicts the UK economy experienced positive MoM GDP in April. China never even went into a recession. Commodity prices are rising strongly. Banks are back in profit. We have seen unprecedented monetary easing and government stimulus. Futures, last Friday, priced in a 59% chance of the Fed having to increase rates by November. Stagflation is not even on the agenda.
The Coming Economic Collapse, Part 2 [View article]
Your article is excellent and re-inforces my view that the US Gov and Fed want inflation to erode the value of its debt burden. 10 years at 5% a year inflation would do nicely. That's one of the unspoken aims of the stimulus package.
Bing: Google, Wave Goodbye to those Long Profits [View article]
The investment time horizon was 1-2 days. The article was published at $439.72 with a "short" call. Since then in just 30 hours it has gone as low as $426 and is now $427.
Bing: Google, Wave Goodbye to those Long Profits [View article]
I am suggesting the combination of factors; falling ppc revenues, new competition, social media growth and the recession, collectively suggest GOOG is a short, especially after it had 9 successive positive days. But you are right, Bing, by itself shouldn't be reason to sell. Thanks very much for your feedback. I appreciate you would take the time to read my article.
Eurozone Pays the Price for Pursuing Paper Wealth [View article]
Re Spain, for years the Euro-zone interest rate, decided in Frankfurt, was inappropriate for both Spain (and Ireland). Anyone, and I mean anyone, was able to get a cheap mortgage which was the fault of both the ECB and the commercial banking sector.
I struggle to see how a single interest rate can ever meet the unique needs of 16 different countries many of which are at different stages of the economic cycle and therefore require a country specific monetary policy.
I also admit I pushed the envelope quite some way, in terms of my criticism, in an attempt to secure interaction and I totally empathise with your views whether they are aligned to mine, or represent the polar opposite view.
Forex Trading Secrets: How to Profit from the G8 Summit [View article]
U.K. Outlook: Recession Might Be Over [View article]
Why We Over-Weight Emerging Markets [View article]
Seeking Alpha Welcomes Its 3000th Contributing Author: William Smead [View article]
Unbelievable. I typed in the article headline in Google Search and there were links on Reuters, AOL Money & Finance and bunch of other great sites.
Thanks SA.
Economy Watch: We're In an Inflationary Recession That May Start to Accelerate [View article]
UK Equity Bears Seek Early Hibernation [View instapost]
DIY Stress Test 2: Final Spreadsheet [View article]
Can Rising Stock Markets Serve as a Confirmation of a Crashing Economy? [View article]
Stocks Undervalued in Current Economic Environment [View article]
Falling Equities Still Key for U.S. Dollar [View article]
Economy Watch: We're In an Inflationary Recession That May Start to Accelerate [View article]
The Coming Economic Collapse, Part 2 [View article]
Bing: Google, Wave Goodbye to those Long Profits [View article]
I most humbly rest my case.
Bing: Google, Wave Goodbye to those Long Profits [View article]