Seeking Alpha Partners with InfoNgen to Empower Its Contributors [View article]
Would someone please note that there is a fool systematically giving the "thumbs down" to all articles. What kind of idiot would red mark these remarks thanking InfoNgen and Seeking Alpha for giving us this offer? Really pathetic.
Stocks Enter a Sustained Bullish Period [View article]
I agree. ETF's are under utilised for most long term investors. Active stock picking is arguably better suited to short and medium term investment horizons, but for a long term investment strategy based on asset class diversification, ETF's are superior once you consider the costs of buying and trading within such instruments relative to active mutual funds, the inability of most fund managers to consistently outperform their benchmark. I would also add that inflationary pressures are still building on commodities and I see no reason why oil, copper, coal etc will not be even more expensive one year from now, than today. China never went into recession, nor will it. There is upward pressure on the prices of all scarce resources, due to global demand, irrelevant of the mess in US Wall Street and Main Street.
Secular Bull in Commodities Remains Intact [View article]
Another great article. No doubt the insular bears that think the NYSE is the global economy will knock you, but you are spot on. Inflation is coming back strong.
You would be right if there was a perfect correlation between equity markets and GDP/economic progress. But there is not. It is perfectly feasible that one, equity markets, would 'out-perform' the other, the economy, over the short to medium term. And also, quite possibly, the market was so oversold in March that half of the rally we have seen, maybe more, is just correcting the mis-pricing. Also, we have seen unprecedented monetary easing and stimulus. This wall of money has, is and will continue to help liquidity, the life-blood of markets. I am not saying the economy is in good shape, it's structurally flawed but the defeatism and conspiracy theories circulating around Seeking Alpha presently have just gone too far. Please someone name a recession that the US economy didn't recover from and subsequently return to growth? Exactly.
CNBC's Rosenberg: Four Factors at Play in the Market [View article]
Not more manipulation theories? There is no more manipulation now then there was 6 months or 6 years ago. The market is flawed, but it has been for decades. Buying>Selling=Prices go up. Or am I wrong?
Stocks Will Fall 37% or Gold Will Rally 60% [View article]
I think suggesting the acceleration in stock ownership as a reason for a imminent stockmarket decline is not robust. The same could have been said for cars, TV's, vacations. Just because the demand for a new product increases quickly, that doesn't mean it has to fall back. The world is changing and the appetite for risky assets, non cash instruments, will not necessarily structurally decline just because the number of participants increased quickly.
Telltale Signs That a Significant Correction Isn't Imminent [View article]
I am bored with conspiracy theories. Maybe, just maybe, there have been more buyers than sellers in the market since March and as gurb says, we see a lot of action pre-close for very good reasons.. .short covering and institutions putting their remaining deals in for the day. From my recent article.
"For some weeks now this weekly review has ‘called’ Q1 or Q2 2009 as the trough of the economic cycle. Initially there was much risk in the statement as the global and US recovery was by no means certain, but as the weeks have progressed the ongoing stream of economic data has increasingly supported this view. The consensus among market commentators has also moved towards our more optimistic pro-recovery stance and now a Q3/Q4 recovery is a mainstream prediction, rather than the hopeful rhetoric of the enlightened minority. Our view did of course fully consider the unusually bitter and sharp contraction in growth primarily caused by very poor leadership in the global banking sector, ineffective regulatory risk controls and appalling credit procedures in the mortgage and commercial lending market place. But whilst we accepted this scenario as depressingly and worryingly unique in modern times, with only the depression of the 1930’s having close similarities, we also reflected on the impact of the unprecedented wall of money flooding into the global economy via government and central bank stimulus packages and its effect on demand. The global economy has never enjoyed such internationally co-ordinated monetary easing or the simultaneous hard–cash injections by governments, to shore up the balance sheets of strategically important institutions. The consequences of this combined stimulus are already being seen in the price of commodities, including oil and gold. Looking beyond the current market-wide inflation data which does not yet fully reflect improving demand outside of the resource sector, we predict that deflation will not only fade from the vocabulary of pessimistic US economists, but that concerns over inflation will return with vengeance within 18 months. The real challenge for 2010 is not achieving stronger global economic growth, a scenario which looks inevitable relative to 2009, but how to restore stable economic growth without killing the US consumer spending recovery with sharp interest rate rises, the usual primitive remedy for rising inflation. We would stress this view is not implying the deep structural problems within capitalism are being fixed. A move away from a cyclical, debt based economic system would need to be implemented for that. Nor is it an equity market prediction, which is below. But we do think the US and global economy, in terms of Gross Domestic Product, is set for a significant improvement from its Q1/Q2 trough."
We briefly mentioned oil. It’s worth taking a closer look at the market as the recent price action, we suggest, is a fore-taste of further inflationary pressures to come in other areas of the global economy. Reflecting for a moment, a barrel of oil fell from $147 during mid-2008, to a little over $32 by December of the same year. Since then oil has pursued a near-relentless recovery to pass $65 on Friday, twice its cyclical low. Statements from OPEC members have reinforced the view that the current rally is not a false dawn for oil bulls. The Saudi Arabia Oil Minister, Ali al-Naimi, long respected for moderate and reasonable analysis of the sector commented the market is “ready” for $75-$80 per barrel prices later in 2009. His views are based on already firming Asian, Middle Eastern and Latin American demand, not pie-in-the-sky guess work. The start of the US holiday driving season also suggests we are more likely to see $80 than $50, next. From a technical view, the price of oil has crossed its 200 day moving average and a number of oil analysts are now suggesting $60 is the new floor in prices. Politicians who side-lined their pro-green sound bites through the worst of the recession will soon be marketing their renewable energy credentials again.
htex, your comment "It would seem like a recovery led by a transfer of borrowed money from one debtor to another leaves us on the same path that got us here" is spot on. The US economy is a debt economy. US Treasuries, mortgages, junk bonds. As the country is so reliant on debt funding the Fed is forced to use monetary policy to try and boost lending (it crudely calls it "growth") and then as we saw in before this recession, increase the cost of borrowing to ease inflation when prices are rising too quickly (though most of that rise was China/Asia related buying of commodities, little to do with US demand). Each recession, 2001, 2008, needs sharper rate cuts and more stimulus to dig it self out of the same secular hole that decades of debt dependence has created. The US is in serious trouble unless it can create goods and real assets of worth and export more than its imports. Service industries only fix part of the problem.
That being said the near-term direction of risky asset prices still looks positive, coming back from March's over-sold positions, but I wouldn't want to be the Commander in Chief of the US balance sheet. It's in an awful mess.
After Two Consecutive Strong Days, What's Next? [View article]
Great article. I have voiced my bullish sentiment in relation to the near term direction of equities (I am less bullish on the economy but still more upbeat than most), for some weeks on Seeking Alpha via my own articles and comments, and generally have been criticised by bear's, gold salesmen and serial pessimists. It's good to see someone scratch the surface and analyse some technicals rather than just shoot from the hip. I think we may well see a day or 2 pause but we are going up in the short to medium term and the S&P 500 will nudge 1,000 over the summer. Most of the rally we have seen to date is just fixing the over-sold scenario. As soon as the US, UK and other governments should up and 'guaranteed' to prop up the banks (ex-Lehman of course) prices were only going one way and that's up. I admit there are structural problems in the economy but even taken those into consideration the enormous monetary easing and other stimulus measure, which are unprecedented, made this rally and more gains inevitable.
Great article but backward looking analysis is always vulnerable to data-mining. I saw similar exercises pitching equities a year ago. But what is clear is that diversifying a portfolio across a larger range of asset classes, each with their own performance characteristics, does improved risk-adjusted returns, so in that respect I applaud you.
A Complete Guide to Precious Metal ETFs [View article]
I think most retail investors should be guided to ETF's for all asset classes not just commodities. There are a lot of investment professionals, bank bosses and risk control experts.... that are not as smart as they think they are. The past year, I suggest, is proof. There should be more focus on asset classes and diversification between them to create a portfolio with a good risk-return profile rather than promoting a 'stock picking' culture which to be fair largely follows the market in bear and bull markets, but with more costs. ETF's get my vote. I know too many average fund managers for my conscience to suggest.
The Price of Oil: Parasite Economics Explained [View article]
Absolutely superb article. I don't agree with everything you write, I think consumer demand for oil slows quicker than you think when prices are rising fast, but overall it's a 1st class article.
Seeking Alpha Partners with InfoNgen to Empower Its Contributors [View article]
Stocks Enter a Sustained Bullish Period [View article]
Secular Bull in Commodities Remains Intact [View article]
Is This Rally the Real Thing? [View article]
CNBC's Rosenberg: Four Factors at Play in the Market [View article]
Seeking Alpha Partners with InfoNgen to Empower Its Contributors [View article]
Stocks Will Fall 37% or Gold Will Rally 60% [View article]
Telltale Signs That a Significant Correction Isn't Imminent [View article]
"For some weeks now this weekly review has ‘called’ Q1 or Q2 2009 as the trough of the economic cycle. Initially there was much risk in the statement as the global and US recovery was by no means certain, but as the weeks have progressed the ongoing stream of economic data has increasingly supported this view. The consensus among market commentators has also moved towards our more optimistic pro-recovery stance and now a Q3/Q4 recovery is a mainstream prediction, rather than the hopeful rhetoric of the enlightened minority. Our view did of course fully consider the unusually bitter and sharp contraction in growth primarily caused by very poor leadership in the global banking sector, ineffective regulatory risk controls and appalling credit procedures in the mortgage and commercial lending market place. But whilst we accepted this scenario as depressingly and worryingly unique in modern times, with only the depression of the 1930’s having close similarities, we also reflected on the impact of the unprecedented wall of money flooding into the global economy via government and central bank stimulus packages and its effect on demand. The global economy has never enjoyed such internationally co-ordinated monetary easing or the simultaneous hard–cash injections by governments, to shore up the balance sheets of strategically important institutions. The consequences of this combined stimulus are already being seen in the price of commodities, including oil and gold. Looking beyond the current market-wide inflation data which does not yet fully reflect improving demand outside of the resource sector, we predict that deflation will not only fade from the vocabulary of pessimistic US economists, but that concerns over inflation will return with vengeance within 18 months. The real challenge for 2010 is not achieving stronger global economic growth, a scenario which looks inevitable relative to 2009, but how to restore stable economic growth without killing the US consumer spending recovery with sharp interest rate rises, the usual primitive remedy for rising inflation. We would stress this view is not implying the deep structural problems within capitalism are being fixed. A move away from a cyclical, debt based economic system would need to be implemented for that. Nor is it an equity market prediction, which is below. But we do think the US and global economy, in terms of Gross Domestic Product, is set for a significant improvement from its Q1/Q2 trough."
Why I'm Starting to Fear Inflation [View article]
Is Market Liquidity Returning? [View article]
That being said the near-term direction of risky asset prices still looks positive, coming back from March's over-sold positions, but I wouldn't want to be the Commander in Chief of the US balance sheet. It's in an awful mess.
After Two Consecutive Strong Days, What's Next? [View article]
How Much Gold DO You Need? [View article]
A Complete Guide to Precious Metal ETFs [View article]
Excellent article by the way.
The Price of Oil: Parasite Economics Explained [View article]
It's Time for Post-Apocalyptic Pricing [View article]