TradingHelpDesk

Crops Headed for a Tough Harvest

Excellent review of the fundamentals but the dollar and technicals are also relevant. Here's an Elliott Wave analysis of grains which is a little more bullish than your analysis.

www.elliottwave.com/a....

Gold Is Not in a Bull Market

"Gold Is Not in a Bull Market "

I disagree. And so does the gold chart.

It rallied in Q4, as the dollar also strengthened, on economic fears

And it rallied further as the dollar fell on inflationary, budget deficit fears.

It seems to me gold is pretty determined to stay strong now but maybe $1,200 to $1,250 is a firm ceiling?

tradinghelpdesk.ning.c...

U.S. Growth Probably Now at 4.5 Percent

Decent summary of the good news.

Is 9.8% unemployment and $11 trillion of government debt worth a mention to balance the scales a little?

And 4.5% growth is a little optimistic considering the US consumer is not yet ready to replace the government stimulus to drive economic growth:

www.bullionvault.com/#...

Winning Commodity ETFs for a Falling U.S. Dollar

ETF's are much bigger business in the US than here in the UK.

For broad equity exposure ETF trackers like Vanguard make sense as so few active managers beat the benchmark but for gold I would rather hold the physical asset with a firm that offers custodian services and liquidity. This firm for example hold around 18 tonnes for retail investors: www.bullionvault.com/#...

U.K.: Individual Liability for Government Debt

Really strong article. Great work. Well worth a follow.

China in a Bubble?

Sounds like a bubble to me. Good article.

U.S. Economic Growth Deconstructed

Good article.

The US GDP data was better than expected but I couldn't see much real sustainble economic growth in there. Just froth and stimulus. Neither of which bodes well for 2010 and beyond with the US carrying $11 trillion of debt.

The UK is even worse shape and didn't even post positive GDP despite the BoE and Labour government chucking hundreds of billions in printed money at the banks.

www.dukascopy.com/iben...

Sentiment Overview: How Are Investors Responding to the Correction?

"The ratio of the bulls to bears is 2.15 - higher than it has been for months."

There you have a great bearish signal then? I think so.

www.dukascopy.com/iben...

Conservatives Miss The Cause Of The Economic Crisis

"The Conservative mantra of the day blames the current financial crisis on the government’s over-regulation of an otherwise sound banking system."

Surely no-one is that stupid? God help us all.

Reality Hits: Q3 GDP Growth Breakdown

How does the relocation of US jobs to India and the rest of Asia help the typical American?

I can see it would help US corporate profits, but that does not mean the typical American will benefit. We can't all be day traders. Surely some of us have to have real jobs.


On Nov 01 02:20 AM aarc wrote:

> You are wrong!
>
> There are 2.5 Billion consumers in the developing countries alone
> including the BRIC. That is 2,500 Millions of potential customers
> by international based manufacturing companies that are US-owned
> that has re-located into the developing countries since the early
> 2000 to take advantage of cheap labor abroad and be able to compete
> anywhere in the world without the shackles of exorbitant US labor
> costs.
>
> And that will funnel back to the US government tax receipts in the
> future as the developing countries start their recovery sans the
> "Made in the USA" financial crisis.
>
> 2.5 billion consumers vs. 300 million they used to cater to.
>
> Ask the US government for a commonwealth policy once those giga-corporations
> start repatriating their profits in perhaps 2 to 3 years time since
> the US will remain shackled with high unemployment rates.
>
> Those giga-corporations are not coming back to the US after spending
> trillions relocating their operations to the developing countries.
>

Reality Hits: Q3 GDP Growth Breakdown

I think we are due a reasonable correction but I don't envisage a return to March's low.

The GDP data was good, but as you say much if it was stimulus driven. I didn't see much sustainable activity in there and I can't see business and consumers replacing the the stimulus spend as it withdrawn.

www.dukascopy.com/iben...

On Oct 30 11:52 PM j-dub wrote:

> My elliott wave work says we make another run for the 1075-1090 level
> on the S and P before all hell finally breaks loose and we begin
> the next wave down unabated. Whether I'm right or wrong, THE TOP
> IS IN. It's just a matter of whether or not they can scare the bears
> into cracking up JUST one more time. If we hit 1080 on the S and
> P, I'll mortgage my great grandmother's house to short the overbloated
> pig.
>
>
> I can see reality rising from just over them hills for all to see...........

Paul Tudor Jones: The Great Liquidity Race and Gold

"The forceful policy response to avert depression tail risks posed by the financial crisis has likely unleashed a wave of liquidity which is probably greater than that of 2001-2003."

Not "probably" Sir. It is definitely greater.

We have never seen such a wave of liquidity forced on markets. If that liquidity is well spent (on projects that can generate new streams of economic value) we will have a sustainable recovery.

If the liquidity is wasted on zero-sum financial speculation or on propping up fundamentally flawed industries we are just digging a bigger hole for ourselves.

www.dukascopy.com/iben...

Are Deficits Irrelevant if We're Unaware?

Deficits are a problem. Ignorance of deficits is just as big a problem. You can't solve it if you can't understand it.

China has a surplus of $2,000bn. The US has a deficit of $11,000bn.

That discrepency will mean US citizens will become tax-slaves for a decade, squeezing US economic growth potential. (2/3rds of US economic growth previously came from consumer spending).

The incompetence of US politicians and the greed and poor risk controls of Wall St "Masters of the Universe", has accelerated the trend and advantage China and Asia already had over the US (and the UK where I have the economic misfortune of being based).

www.dukascopy.com/iben...

Harvard Professor: Does Capitalism Have a Future?

"Does Capitalism Have a Future?"

I believe it does. You have to reward entrepreneurs and hard work. But we need a reformed moral framework of capitalism that punishes greed and failure, particularly failure thats costs the taxpayers hundreds of billions of dollars.

Also we need to move the investment industry away from its obsession with financial speculation, and towards economic investment that can create real jobs and new streams of real economic wealth.

Another Reason You Should Be on the Sidelines Now

You articles continue to be a must read.

I learn something everytime. Thanks.