Why a Market Crash Doesn’t Matter [View article]
"Investing giants like Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch are on record as ignorers of the general stock market. Instead, they are only interested in the specific companies they own."
Well that's obvious. If you own large stakes in a couple of dozen companies then of course the company specific issues are dominant in your mind. But there are millions of US investors who - on the advice of their consultants - have exposure to the wider market, the S&P 500, or Russell Indices, so for you to dismiss their wider "stock market" worries as unfounded is a bit unsympathetic.
Let's not forget the Dow 30 is lower now than it was 10 years ago. There's plenty to be legitimately worried about if you are exposed to equities I think.
"The petty, brain-dead politicians in California are still engaged in their suicidal, ideological stand-off."
I love it. Show me a politician or box-ticking state bureaucrat who understands real economics and there you will have a rare commodity indeed. Maybe one even worth voting for.
Shift in U.S. - China Dialogue Is Louder than Words [View article]
Really strong article. The choice between living in the United States of Goldman Sachs or China is not quite the easy decision it was 2-3 years ago. The US has, as you so articulately put it, lost the moral high ground.
The Real Crisis Is Food: Beginning of the Bull for Agriculture [View article]
I think the writer, Graham, is right. Falling supplies of water in marginal farmland will hit supply. Australia is a prime example. Rising food prices is also a function of wider inflation which we have seen in energy commodities for some years. Admittedly that rally suffered a setback a few months ago but it has recently reasserted itself. Demand for food stuffs is inelastic. Society doesn't eat less potatoes when there's a recession on!! Actually, I think society eats more basic foodstuffs at the expense of higher cost luxury foods? Long agri commodities is a good call I think.
Flash Trading: Goldman Sachs Front Running Everyone Else [View article]
Outstanding. As always. It would be an easier scenario to unravel if the Fed, treasury and US government weren't so cosy with (GS). I still can't get over GS's profits so soon after it got a tax-payers bail-out. I didn't think re-distribution of wealth was quite so explicitly designed to disadvantage the man on the street and boost the bonuses of GS bankers.
Is a Case of Quant Trading Sabotage About to Destroy Goldman Sachs? [View article]
"Goldman went from 1st to N/A in one week." Says it all.
Well done Tyler. You are truly the 'Batman' of Wall Street.
There is obviously something very strange going on. An industrial spy penetrating the prop desk of GS. Incredible. I wonder if GS can escape and re-use its strategy or if it is forever corrupted and lost.
To what degree will this hit GS earnings, if it is lost? What percentage of their earnings comes from the prop desk in question? If there are analysts with a in-depth knowledge of the GS P&L I would very much appreciate guidance.
Policy Lessons from the Great Depression [View article]
I see no evidence at all the the current batch of policy makers in the US and UK have learned anything from the 1930's depression.
If the government wants to stimulate the economy and is willing to print or borrow hundreds of billions in dollars to do it, it should be investing in projects that can generate new streams of economic wealth.
Helping financial institutions with their liquidity so they can speculate and drive up the price of commodities and equities, does not create real economic growth. It creates asset price inflation.
25 Reasons We Will Not Have a Depression [View article]
Good article but I just see 25 outcomes from unprecedented monetary easing and stimulus.
I see no sustainable economic growth. Who is going to pick up the growth baton when interest rates rise - as they will have to and when the government stimulus is withdrawn? The consumer? Not at 10.2% unemployment with thousands of profit focused US firms increasingly obsessed with outsourcing more jobs to Asia.
I admire your optimism, but hope is not a strategy.
No One Saw This Economic Crisis Coming? [View article]
"No one saw it coming" is of course a correct generalisation. If a mass of investors saw the bubble 3 years ago, we would have had the crash then, not late 2008. Bubbles grow, by their very nature, because only a tiny minority are either smart enough or lucky enough to forsee the problems ahead. As soon as that view spreads and secures a large enough consensus, you then have the selling frenzy, lack of liquidity and asset price collapse.
Bubbles could not be created if the majority of active investors saw a financial meltdown ahead. Therefore most of the investment community, who still commit cash to risky assets in the months before an asset price collapse are obviously wrong, ill-informed, over confident or just plain stupid.
Let me clarify that, most people in our industry are not as smart as they think they are. I provide 2008 as indisputable proof.
Here in London I spoke to maybe a 1000 investment professionals over the year prior to the collapse. Only one was the voice of economic doom. But he has been the anti-christ of confidence for 10 years and a broken clock investing strategy (wait long enough and it will eventually be right), is no strategy at all for a life-time of challenges and changes.
A Tale of Two Markets: Overvalued Stocks and the Declining Dollar [View article]
I would suggest there is a considerable gap between what the Fed is saying:
1. Investor confidence improving. 2. Low rates can stay as inflation pressures remain subdued. 3. Strong dollar good.
And what is it thinking:
1. Risks of another asset price bubble are increasing fast. 2. Low rates have to stay in place as neither businesses nor consumers are ready to maintain the recovery. 3. Weak dollar good.
The Fed is one of the primary parties that got us into this mess. I am not reassured that they have the competence to get us out.
State and Local Governments Increase Jobs: Even the Experts Are Shocked [View article]
We shouldn't be surprised the government employee count is increasing. It's the same here in the UK.
2008 and the greed and incompetence of bankers has given those who seek bigger government all the ammunition they need.
In the race between the tortoise (government employees) and the hare (entrepreneurs), the tortoise has won this race. Anyone who has aspired to build their own business, risk their own capital and create something has been grossly disadvantaged.
Those who sought low risk job security in government employment have done very nicely recently.
Elliott Wave International are a lot more pessimistic than you, and unfortunately they are very, very good at forecasting. I see you are citing mainly fundamental arguments. Their view is purely technical.
Worrying indeed. I don't pretend to know the answer as my predicting skills are quickly diluted over multi-month horizons relative to a few days.
Why a Market Crash Doesn’t Matter [View article]
Well that's obvious. If you own large stakes in a couple of dozen companies then of course the company specific issues are dominant in your mind. But there are millions of US investors who - on the advice of their consultants - have exposure to the wider market, the S&P 500, or Russell Indices, so for you to dismiss their wider "stock market" worries as unfounded is a bit unsympathetic.
Let's not forget the Dow 30 is lower now than it was 10 years ago. There's plenty to be legitimately worried about if you are exposed to equities I think.
Nouriel Roubini, One on One: More Doom and Gloom [View article]
I see little improvement in the real economy. Just froth from monetary easing.
California's Default Is Certain [View article]
I love it. Show me a politician or box-ticking state bureaucrat who understands real economics and there you will have a rare commodity indeed. Maybe one even worth voting for.
McKinsey: 28% of Asset Managers Suffering from 'Depression and Denial' [View article]
Another 71% aren't as smart as they think they are.
Please urgently pass me the contact details of the remaining 1%.
Shift in U.S. - China Dialogue Is Louder than Words [View article]
The Real Crisis Is Food: Beginning of the Bull for Agriculture [View article]
Flash Trading: Goldman Sachs Front Running Everyone Else [View article]
Aleynikov's Code Dump Uncovered [View article]
I wonder what event occured in your interesting life to give you such determination to change the flawed and corrupt status quo.
Good luck.
Is a Case of Quant Trading Sabotage About to Destroy Goldman Sachs? [View article]
Well done Tyler. You are truly the 'Batman' of Wall Street.
There is obviously something very strange going on. An industrial spy penetrating the prop desk of GS. Incredible. I wonder if GS can escape and re-use its strategy or if it is forever corrupted and lost.
To what degree will this hit GS earnings, if it is lost? What percentage of their earnings comes from the prop desk in question? If there are analysts with a in-depth knowledge of the GS P&L I would very much appreciate guidance.
Bravo, Tyler.
Policy Lessons from the Great Depression [View article]
If the government wants to stimulate the economy and is willing to print or borrow hundreds of billions in dollars to do it, it should be investing in projects that can generate new streams of economic wealth.
Helping financial institutions with their liquidity so they can speculate and drive up the price of commodities and equities, does not create real economic growth. It creates asset price inflation.
www.dukascopy.com/iben...
25 Reasons We Will Not Have a Depression [View article]
I see no sustainable economic growth. Who is going to pick up the growth baton when interest rates rise - as they will have to and when the government stimulus is withdrawn? The consumer? Not at 10.2% unemployment with thousands of profit focused US firms increasingly obsessed with outsourcing more jobs to Asia.
I admire your optimism, but hope is not a strategy.
No One Saw This Economic Crisis Coming? [View article]
Bubbles could not be created if the majority of active investors saw a financial meltdown ahead. Therefore most of the investment community, who still commit cash to risky assets in the months before an asset price collapse are obviously wrong, ill-informed, over confident or just plain stupid.
Let me clarify that, most people in our industry are not as smart as they think they are. I provide 2008 as indisputable proof.
Here in London I spoke to maybe a 1000 investment professionals over the year prior to the collapse. Only one was the voice of economic doom. But he has been the anti-christ of confidence for 10 years and a broken clock investing strategy (wait long enough and it will eventually be right), is no strategy at all for a life-time of challenges and changes.
A Tale of Two Markets: Overvalued Stocks and the Declining Dollar [View article]
1. Investor confidence improving.
2. Low rates can stay as inflation pressures remain subdued.
3. Strong dollar good.
And what is it thinking:
1. Risks of another asset price bubble are increasing fast.
2. Low rates have to stay in place as neither businesses nor consumers are ready to maintain the recovery.
3. Weak dollar good.
The Fed is one of the primary parties that got us into this mess. I am not reassured that they have the competence to get us out.
tradinghelpdesk.ning.c...
State and Local Governments Increase Jobs: Even the Experts Are Shocked [View article]
2008 and the greed and incompetence of bankers has given those who seek bigger government all the ammunition they need.
In the race between the tortoise (government employees) and the hare (entrepreneurs), the tortoise has won this race. Anyone who has aspired to build their own business, risk their own capital and create something has been grossly disadvantaged.
Those who sought low risk job security in government employment have done very nicely recently.
Why the Dow Is Headed to 6000 [View article]
Elliott Wave International are a lot more pessimistic than you, and unfortunately they are very, very good at forecasting. I see you are citing mainly fundamental arguments. Their view is purely technical.
Worrying indeed. I don't pretend to know the answer as my predicting skills are quickly diluted over multi-month horizons relative to a few days.