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S&P: Much Ado About... 5.5 Percent  When the Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied above 10,000 in mid-October, it understandably got a lot of attention from Wall Street and Main Street. But the time to get excited about this rally was back in March. Investors who waited until the economy improved enough to give them confidence to buy stocks again did so just as the rally slowed to a virtual halt.  Read More

Bonds: How Will They Do in a Deflation?  Investors got burned twice over the past few years: first it was the drop in the stock market, then in commodities in 2008. So now they are piling into bonds. How will that turn out?  Read More

U.S. Dollar 'Flies': A Blip or Start of Something Big?  The Fed's chairman Bernanke said on Monday they were watching currencies markets to "help ensure that the dollar is strong"; the ECB's Trichet said that Bernanke's statement was "very important." Apparently, forex traders interpreted both comments as bullish for the dollar... but if you've been watching the EUR/USD's Elliott wave patterns, you didn't have to wait for the morning news to tell you that. See this chart...  Read More

Commodities Feast of Opportunities: Dig In  As you wait for that frozen turkey to thaw, there's plenty of time to indulge in the analytical "feast" that awaits you regarding the world's largest commodity markets. Elliott Wave International's chief commodity analyst Jeffrey Kennedy sets the commodity table with mouth-watering insight in his just-published November Monthly Futures Junctures.   Read More

Cross-Straits Negotiations and the TAIEX: What's Next for Taiwan?  Will closer ties to China improve or impair Taiwan's economy? Are the best years passed or yet to come? Is it time to get in or out of the TAIEX? What's next for the NTD? What can recent news items can tell us about what's most likely to happen next?  Read More

14,700 Americans disclose offshore accounts; how will Swiss markets react?  As of yesterday's deadline, it looks like US citizens decided that keeping a numbered account in a private bank is more scary than paying taxes. Switzerland's economy is highly dependent on financial services, and an estimated one-third of all offshore accounts are held there. Sounds like doom for the Swiss Market Index (SMI), right?   Read More

Free Report: Discover the Top 100 Safest U.S. Banks Is Your Bank Safe? By the end of 2009, more than 130 banks will have failed in the United States. What if your bank fails? Did you know you could be left in the lurch for days, weeks, even months before you get your money back from the FDIC? What happens if the FDIC can't cover your funds? How do you find a safe bank to protect your deposits right now? Find answers to these questions and more in the original "Safe Banks" report from Elliott Wave International. Download your free report.

By Robert Prechter

The following article is an excerpt from Robert Prechter's Elliott Wave Theorist. For more information from Robert Prechter on bank safety, download his free report, Discover the Top 100 Safest U.S. Banks.

Perhaps the single greatest reason for the unbridled expansion of credit over the past 50 years is the existence of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, another government-sponsored enterprise created by Congress. The coming rush of bank failures is an outcome made inevitable the very day that Congress created the FDIC. The reason is that the creation of the FDIC allowed savers to believe that their deposits at banks are “insured” against loss.

But the FDIC is not really an insurance company. No enterprise, absent fraud, could possibly insure all the banking deposits in a nation. Nor does the FDIC do so, despite its claims. The FDIC is like AIG, the company that sold too many credit-default swaps. It contracted for more insurance than it could pay upon. Because depositors believe the sticker on the door of the bank, they have abdicated their responsibility to make sure that their banks’ officers handle their deposits prudently. This abdication allowed banks to lend with impunity for decades until they became saturated with unpayable debts.

Today, most banks are insolvent, and the FDIC is broke. This condition is deflationary for three reasons: (1) Banks are coming to realize that the FDIC cannot bail them out in a systemic crisis, so they have become highly conservative in their lending policies, as described above. (2) The main way that the FDIC gets its money is to dun marginally healthy banks for more “premiums” (meaning transfer payments) to bail out their disastrously run competitors. The more money the FDIC sucks out of marginally healthy banks, the less money those banks have on hand to lend, which is deflationary. (3) The banks that have to cough up all this money will become more impoverished at the margin, so banks that otherwise might have survived a credit crunch will be thrown even closer to the brink of failure. This is another deflationary risk.

A friend of mine whose family owns a bank told me that the FDIC recently raised its 6-month assessment from $17,000 to $600,000. In the FDIC’s latest announcement, it is considering requiring banks to pre-pay three years’ worth of “premiums,” i.e. triple the normal annual fee in a single year. It will be a miracle if the money lasts through 2010. When these funds are gone, the FDIC will have two more options: to issue its own bonds and pressure banks to buy them; and to tap its “credit line” of up to half a trillion dollars with the U.S. Treasury. It’s the same old solution: take on more new debt to back up failing old debt. More debt will not cure the debt crisis.

Meanwhile, the FDIC is contributing to the deflationary trend. It has “tightened rules on required capital levels,” which forces banks’ loan ratios to fall; and it has “extended its extra monitoring of new banks from the first three years of operation to seven years” (AJC, 11/19), meaning that banks will now have to wait four additional years before they can go crazy with loans.

For more information from Robert Prechter on bank safety, download his free report, Discover the Top 100 Safest U.S. Banks. You'll learn how to find a safe bank, the critical difference between lending and banking, tips on international banking, and more.

 Is Your Bank Safe? More than 130 banks will have failed by the end of 2009. What if your bank fails? Did you know you could be left in the lurch for days, weeks, even months before you get your money back from the FDIC? What happens if the FDIC can't cover your funds? How do you find a safe bank to protect your deposits right now? Find answers to these questions and more in the original "Safe Banks" report from Elliott Wave International. Learn more and download the "Safe Banks" report now.

Please read the following Bloomberg news item carefully. It has a direct impact on the safety of your money.

Sept. 24 (Bloomberg) -- In May, the FDIC said it was projecting $70 billion of losses during the next five years due to bank failures. The agency said it expects most of those collapses to occur in 2009 and 2010.

The FDIC’s problem is that it didn’t collect enough revenue over the years to cover today’s losses. The blame lies partly with Congress. Until the law was changed in 2006, the FDIC was barred from charging premiums to banks that it classified as well-capitalized and well-managed. Consequently, the vast majority of banks weren’t paying anything for deposit insurance.

Of course, we now know it means nothing when the FDIC or any other regulator labels a bank “well-capitalized.” Most banks that failed during this crisis were considered well-capitalized just before their failure.

By the end of 2009, more than 130 banks will have failed. Most depositors will have little clue their bank was even at risk. Worse yet, the string-pullers in Washington are doing everything in their power to hide information about the safety of your bank from you.

So far, the FDIC has had enough money to cover insured depositors. But that money is quickly running out.

Just last week, the FDIC voted to mandate early payment of insurance premiums to help cover at-risk banks. Here's what the Associated Press reported on Thursday, Nov. 12:

WASHINGTON (AP) -- U.S. banks will prepay about $45 billion in premiums to replenish a federal deposit insurance fund now in the red, under a plan adopted Thursday by federal regulators.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. board voted to mandate the early payments of premiums for 2010 through 2012. Amid the struggling economy and rising loan defaults, 120 banks have failed so far this year, costing the insurance fund more than $28 billion.

Worse yet, three more banks failed the very next day, Friday, Nov. 13.

This is a very real problem and a direct threat to your money. It's more important now than ever to personally ensure the safety of your bank. The free 10-page "Safe Banks" report from our friends at Elliott Wave International can help.

Inside EWI's revealing free report, you'll discover:

The 100 Safest U.S. Banks (2 for each state)
Where your money goes after you make a deposit
How your fractional-reserve bank works
What risks you might be taking by relying on the FDIC's guarantee
Please protect your money. Download the free 10-page "Safe Banks" report now.

Learn more and download the "Safe Banks" report now.

The following article is provided courtesy of Elliott Wave International (EWI). For more insights that challenge conventional financial wisdom, download EWI’s free 118-page Independent Investor eBook.

Large banks and more recently pension funds have suddenly become infatuated with gold. They chant the mantras that gold bugs have known for years: gold is a store of value; owning gold is financial insurance; an ounce of gold will always buy a good suit. The idea is that if the economy continues to weaken and share prices decline, a strategic allocation of the precious metal will hedge and offset some of the losses in the financial sector.

On the surface it seems to make sense and it’s hard to argue with the logic. Even so, logic can sometimes get twisted, whereas facts cannot. The evidence is found in the chart we describe as “All the Same Market.” Gold, stocks, currencies (versus the dollar), oil, grains, meats, softs, all decline in a deflationary environment. As liquidity dries up and credit contracts, people, businesses, and institutions sell everything to get dollars. Cash is once again king. This is bearish for gold.

Looked at another way: as the dollar advances from its lows, things denominated in dollars lose value against the dollar. As long as the dollar remains the global senior currency, assets will depreciate: not just stocks and commodities but residential and commercial property, works of art, collectible cars, pretty much everything. Of course, this outlook presumes a deflationary environment and that’s been our view for quite some time. But that’s another conversation. The topic here is stocks down/gold up - or not.

The long-time editor of the Elliott Wave Financial Forecast Short Term Update, Steven Hochberg summed it up succinctly in a recent issue:

“The other important aspect to a dollar bottom is the implication to all the other markets that have been moving opposite to this senior currency. The start of a major dollar rally should roughly coincide with a turn down in stocks, commodities, oil and the precious metals. So there are likely to be important trend reversals across nearly all major markets.”

Don’t fall into the trap of group-think. If investing was that easy we’d all have (insert your own private fantasy).

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For more information, download Robert Prechter’s free Independent Investor eBook. The 118-page resource teaches investors to think independently by challenging conventional financial market assumptions.

Learn more about the method that has kept Robert Prechter out of the herd and in the game for more than three decades. His company, Elliott Wave International, has an extremely useful Elliott Wave Tutorial for free online. It’s broken up into 10 lessons across 50 pages, so it’s easy to read and review at your leisure:

Learn more about the free Tutorial.

Greetings Investor,

“Successful market timing depends upon learning the patterns of crowd behavior. By anticipating the crowd, you can avoid becoming a part of it.”

I pulled this quote directly from the opening paragraphs of the free Elliott Wave Online Tutorial. It’s critical to your understanding of how markets really work.

Now some might say, “What’s wrong with following the crowd? I’m just following the easy money, right?” The problem with this logic is that most investors follow the crowd (or herd) all the way up the mountain … then right off the cliff.

Look at today’s situation: How many people you know got out of the stock market before the October 2007 top? Heck, how many you know cut losses and cashed out even six months after the top?

If you’re like most people, your answer ranges from “zero” to “very few.”

Being a successful investor over the long-term means you must always strive to be part of that “very few.”

Famed market analyst Robert Prechter, the leading practitioner of the Elliott wave method of market analysis, once said, “Missing a market move may be a shame, but getting caught on the wrong side of one means you lose money. People who have gone through the experience know there’s a big difference.”

To be a successful individual investor, you must understand what it means to take risks when the probabilities are behind you and shun risk when they’re not. Robert Prechter’s method of analysis, the Elliott Wave Principle, is designed to help him and his subscribers do just that.

Buy and hold is dead. Trading isn’t any easier. Having a big-picture outlook doesn’t mean you must “set it and forget it,” as the late-night infomercial guy says. And it certainly doesn’t mean you must be in and out of the markets every day. It simply means you can see the forest for the trees.

You can go long when the markets are behind you, short if you have the guts, and stay out completely when the risk is too high. Simply put, adopting an independent, unbiased method is the very best way to ensure you don’t get caught up in the investment herd.

Elliott wave analysis is not for everyone. It’s highly technical. And it presents probabilities, not certainties (there’s no such thing as a black box trading system). The most successful investors and analysts – the guys who are still around after 30 years like Prechter – are able to assign probabilities and assess risk; and they act only when probabilities are high and risk is not.

I encourage you to learn more about the method that has kept Robert Prechter out of the herd and in the game for more than three decades. His company, Elliott Wave International, has an extremely useful Elliott Wave Tutorial for free online. It’s broken up into 10 lessons across 50 pages, so it’s easy to read and review at your leisure.

Check it out at the link below, give yourself some time to digest it, and decide for yourself if Elliott is a method you should add to your investment arsenal.

Separate your investments from the herd; get started with the free ...

 Previous session overview

The euro remained strong against the dollar in early New York trading Monday, hovering around the psychologically important USD1.50 mark, after rising global stocks suggested markets would shake off last week's disappointing U.S. jobs data and continue to load up on risk.

Finance ministers and central bankers at this weekend's meeting of the Group of 20 industrialized and developing nations didn't mention currencies in their official communique, removing what had been a possible obstacle to placing bets on higher-yielding currencies.

The Dollar Index, a trade-weighted basket of six currencies, was at 75.109 from 75.784 late Friday. The index was flirting with nearly 15-month lows.

GBPUSD gapped higher and rallied for a high print at USD1.6846 absorbing semi-official offers at key tech levels; low prints in Asia at USD1.6615 were quickly bought to ignite the rally.

USDJPY failed to follow on higher with stronger equities overnight topping out at tech resistance at JPY90.28 before turning lower; low prints in Europe at JPY89.68 with the rate holding under the JPY90.00 handle in early New York.

Positive Australian housing data overnight sent investors interest into the Australian dollar, which lifted other higher-yielding currencies. The Australian dollar hit a two-week high, at USD0.9299, on the data that showed Australian housing-finance approvals rose 5.1% on the month in September, more than the 3% rise expected.

Market expectation

If U.S. stocks follow the lead of Asian and European exchanges, the euro and other higher-yielding currencies are likely to extend their gains against the dollar. U.S. stocks are expected to open higher.

EURUSD high print notched around USD1.5020 but very light flows in the pair on the move up, or at least, not a lot of noise, a trader says. Decent offers spied on 'the machine' to USD1.5025, perhaps damping the impact of earlier noted stops.

Pound getting pulled higher by euro-dollar's extended rally, though cable seen struggling to get a toe hold back above USD1.6800 at writing. Offers seen placed to USD1.6805, with further interest seen close behind at USD1.6815/20.

USDJPY deflating slowly with dollar slippage elsewhere but remaining above the overnight low notched at JPY89.70, but only by about 10 pips or so as risk-appetite from firmer US stocks offsets dollar weakness here. Flows light currently but chatter notes that exporter offers have been lowered to JPY90.25 area of overnight high. Break below JPY89.70 expected to flush a few light stops but area of JPY89.50 said to hold mixed interest as bids and stops conflict.

There are no key U.S. data Monday, which means the euro and other higher-yielding currencies should track the direction of the stock market.

Dukascopy Currency Trading