Trae Boyd

Trae Boyd
Contributor since: 2012
Company: Gold Spade Capital
Intangible - Thanks, welcome your thoughts on VTNR - do you see any downside to a reverse split, aside from the frictional costs?
On the second TCEP facility/margins issue - it sounds to me from what management has said thus far that it would require a capacity build in their aggregation arm first - basically reach a broader supply of used oils - in order to avoid raising the price of the feedstock. That should be easy enough to do - that might be a good question for management at the next call.
Glad you found it useful - hope you made some money. A note - I used expected value in the article based on various probabilities - realistically though I think it's worth about $5 on current combined ops, EVA always understates value but is useful for decision making.
I'm adding to my position for whatever that's worth. Incredibly cheap. That said I haven't done any additional research in the last couple of months so could be missing something.
Galileo - short positions are not shown in holdings... bcs implicitly a short is not a holding. consequently, you cannot infer anything from quarterly ownership filings in regards to short positions. Einhorn is very possibly still short.
Bradsmith - thanks for your comment - very helpful to hear from someone with personal experience with this bank.
I hope you're right! Then it's even more undervalued. I'm long XLS so would love to see that come to pass. I'm a value guy though so I try and remain conservative in future estimates so that I can be sure I'm buying with a comfortable margin of safety.
Good point, I'll include that discussion in future articles.
Hey Simon - good to see someone write on OSH. I just sold my position, want to offer a couple of thoughts. The market cap has increased substantially - around 150m now, vs the October number I believe you used above. My only point there is just to say much of the upside in my opinion has been realized from a valuation standpoint - going forward any long position is a bet on management execution. Also, given the large amount of debt SHLD saddled OSH with - using Enterprise Value multiples makes more sense in my opinion vs P/CF etc. On an EV multiple basis, OSH is much closer to on par in valuation terms with LOW and HD - and in my opinion deserves the discount it is receiving given its tenuous financial position and current unprofitability. Just my two cents - thanks for the article.
Augustus - a few that passed an initial glance - but I haven't yet dug into thoroughly - HARI, JXSB, KFFG, NVSL, MGYR. The AAII screener is solid for this use.
TWhite113 - Thanks for the comment - yes there are a bunch of small banks trading between 50 and 70% you're certainly right on that. The reason this one interested me is that it's a good, profitable bank which didn't need the capital of the demutualization. I think they will be able to use the capital to grow their asset base significantly. If they buy back stock or kick up the dividend, I'd also be pleased with that of course. If they are bought out by a larger bank, great, but I think it's undervalued even without that as a possible outcome given its performance. Many of the demutalizations trading below tangible book SHOULD trade under tangible book - many of them still have weak balance sheets and/or are unprofitable. This one seemed to be the best of the lot. I'd certainly welcome suggestions of some others to look at though. Thanks again,