Travis Lewis

Travis Lewis
Contributor since: 2011
I hope it goes away but highly doubt it. Only time will tell after the split.
No, just put in a MOC buy and a MOC sell anytime during the day (has to be in 15 minutes before close)
Your share count is going to be off as you said you expect them to buy more shares in the past 91 days.
"And as you look forward into the September quarter before any further buybacks or any issuance to employees we would expect to see an additional approximate 11 million share benefit from the things that occurred during the June quarter." Peter
924-11 = 913 + 1.5 RSU's = 914.5 with zero BB since 06/29/13
AMZN has to be hurting for profits. Today they said they are rasing the min purchase price for free shipping. How do people say they have no competition. AMZN has raised prices on everything.
Walmart is way cheaper and with their online ordering and same day pick-up (my town is about 15 minutes after purchase). And I pay with my Chase rewards CC and get another 5% cash back to boot.
Uhh, Ben Thompson blows this articles opinion out of the water.
http://bit.ly/16ZuCCS (Stratechery)
@Krusty
Then tell us how much it may cost, use a hypothetical low-high figure. Like the author said, it's not costless like you are trying to state.
You make it seem like AMZN will have workers pay them.
You are going to answer this question with a question, so I ask again, what is your estimate? +$5 to +$50 per device somehow or?
Ouch, Great comment.
@Author
Bro, you can't have $38B topline with only ~$7.00 EPS on 37% GM.
You are either not very good or completely lying.
That mayday button will turn into a mayhem button. People are going to use it just cause it's there and "why not." How do I check my email, instead of spending 2 minutes figuring it out yourself. Not to mention this generations "prank calls" of bored school kids.
They are going to regret this but the stock market will love it as costs will shoot even higher and more money will be lost.
Apple must be a 10-off then. It has lost market share yet profits rose. It has also had market share stay stagnant and profits drastically rise by 50%.
I'll have to look into why that was/is an impossible outcome.
@Author,
You sighting MSFT/IBM approach being superior is very short sighted. The model already broke down. Why did GOOG buy MOT? Why did MSFT buy Nokia phone division? Why is MSFT building tablets?
What does market share represent that is useful to stock holders?
@Author
Your iPad and iPhone ASP is not correct. Apple reclassified its revenue in January, but hey, I'm sure you didn't know that.
"Last week, I predicted EPS of $7.78, and while it may seem like I was quite far off, it would have been a very accurate prediction if Apple had not spent $800M more on operating expenses than management guided for."
Apple guided for $3.85B - $3.95B in opex for FYQ3 (on 04/23/13)
They came in under that @ $3.8B, which would have been in your favor.
"But while the higher than expected operating expenses reduced Apple's earnings, it's one of the "better" type of expenses. For instance, if these expenses are mostly a result of higher R&D investments, then it will likely have a positive effect on Apple over the long haul."
Maybe redact that paragraph.
Well, not this qtr, maybe next.
@ Author
You have to be one of the only people expecting AAPL to give out 11M shares in compensation.
That's a pretty decent drop y/y or q/q. You'd have to go back to Q2'11 to see a "other" number that low.
Maybe I missed it but aren't you missing a whole $1.xB line item? Accessories?
Oh boy. Author just got put on blast today.
No.Big.Deal (NBD)
Meeting is 02/27.
Nothing will be announced at a shareholder meeting. A decision will be made @ a board meeting. 02/27 will be a great short entry as the media is setting up Apple for failure again. It will be a repeat of the GS conference.
To clarify, Einhorn's lawsuit has nothing to do with suing Apple for its cash. The lawsuit is to unbundle prop 2 is all. Basically to break up prop 2 into a few different props.
After reading this I'm inclined to raise my short position. You have uncovered myriad problems with this company and how analysts perceive it to their clients.
Side note, I like how AMZN CYQ2 earnings estimates have came down 70.5% over the past 7 days, yet the stock is $2 above its pre-earnings report.
Nice article. Keep up the good work and nice diggin'.
@ Author
Div/BB future plans are never discussed @ a shareholder meeting. That is a BOD thing. (AAPL)
No, I wouldn't use options. Just use stock because it has to be traded so much. + way too much in the LEAPS bid/ask spread.
Just use 2+ shares. As long as commission is $1 in $1 out you're fine.
Article states "The iPhones and the iPads ARPU have declined over the last couple of quarters. This is primarily due to Apple being more aggressive with offering discounts on their old models."
Truth is; iPhone ASP has been stable as a table. Q1'12 ASP $646.52 vs Q1'13 $641.57.
So that was primarily a lie.
Media: Apple needs to come out with cheaper products or else. (so we can destroy them after the fact)
Enter iPad mini
Media: Apple is doomed due to total ASP declining. (mission accomplished.
Hey, I'm all gravy for a company that has no growth per the media. I'll take that Q1'12 $17B Op cash flow vs. Q1'13 $23B op cash flow all year. 0% growth....or, well 35% growth don't scare me.
Apple's margins are not declining. They are correcting from an astronomical level. 47.x% was a joke. All the stars aligned that Qtr including currency & an "S" phone. They should have never been 47%.
How correlated are Apple's margins to its stock price?
http://bit.ly/WmpjvG (picture link)
I'm still short $amzn from $245. No conventional stop as I need position to go thru mulitple ER reports. Willing to wait it out, just like RIMM back in the day.
This cannot be said enough. Law of Large Numbers has to do with coin flips. It has nothing to do with growth, anti-growth, stocks etc.
That's where I stopped reading so cannot comment further.
Apple has $10,212B in deferred rev & $137.1B cash/equiv
@ Author,
My Man, Nice article. You're a great addition to seeking alpha.
It seems you are a terrible market timer though. Maybe in the top 13 or 14th SA has to offer.
Why were you not short Apple?
I cannot caution more, please stick to writing. You are very good at it. Market timing/trading/investing, oh boy...not good.
AAPL grew EPS 7.2% Y/Y vs. GOOG 4.8%.
"Average weekly revenue was $4.2 billion in the quarter compared to $3.3 billion in the year-ago quarter."
AAPL grew rev 27.2% Y/Y vs. GOOG ~36%. Just sayin'
A major reason AMZN goes up everyday, is due to the perpetual put build it receives.
You should have started the article with, 'I don't actually know what the Law of Large Numbers is but...'
"The law does not state that “a variable will revert to a mean over a large sample of results.” The Law of Large Numbers says nothing about individual measurements; it’s all about averages. And it certainly doesn’t “suggest” anything about the future growth of large companies.
If the Law of Large Numbers worked the way Stewart says, you could repeatedly measure the height of Dirk Nowitzki and he’d eventually shrink down to 5′ 9″. I’m surprised the Mavericks’ opponents haven’t thought of this."
Quote from Dr.Drang