Seeking Alpha

Travis Lewis

View as an RSS Feed
View Travis Lewis' Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Something Is Definitely Broken With The Market [View article]
    A major reason AMZN goes up everyday, is due to the perpetual put build it receives.
    Jan 14 09:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple Really A 'Buy'? [View article]
    You should have started the article with, 'I don't actually know what the Law of Large Numbers is but...'

    "The law does not state that “a variable will revert to a mean over a large sample of results.” The Law of Large Numbers says nothing about individual measurements; it’s all about averages. And it certainly doesn’t “suggest” anything about the future growth of large companies.

    If the Law of Large Numbers worked the way Stewart says, you could repeatedly measure the height of Dirk Nowitzki and he’d eventually shrink down to 5′ 9″. I’m surprised the Mavericks’ opponents haven’t thought of this."

    Quote from Dr.Drang
    Jan 13 06:10 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Should Announce A $100 Billion Stock Buyback [View article]
    Another way to put it; what would be the correct share price appreciation over a 5 year period and 1 year period for you to say Apple does not need to repurchase $100B worth of stock by issuing debt or taking major tax hit?
    Dec 23 07:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Should Announce A $100 Billion Stock Buyback [View article]

    Why would you want Apple to super charge its EPS so early in the game?

    1) It's not Apple's job to manage its stock price.

    But then again, let's say hypothetically it is Apple's job to manage the stock price and nothing more.

    The stock was $78 in January 2009. The stock price was $405 on 12/31/11. This represents a 566% and 28% gain.

    So if it is Apples job to control the stock price, I think they have done one hell of a job.

    Apple does not interfere with its stock price too much, but as a shareholder you can't say 0% of the time. Apple releasing China iPhone numbers was to help the stock, it just happened to be Wall St doesn't care about facts. In no way was it typical or necessary for Apple to release those figures.

    Do not blame Apple if you are late to the game, made poor short term trading decisions or used terrible judgment using derivatives incorrectly. If you do not hold a gain in Apple, that is not their problem, as the stock has given you 20 years to do so.

    So back to the question, should Apple buyback $100B worth of stock? I don't know, if you are a 1/4 mile ahead in a 1/2 mile drag race, would you keep injecting nitrous into the throttle-body?

    (opinion: even if you bot stock @ $650, I think you have considerable upside)
    Dec 23 06:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Needs To Answer These Questions [View article]
    Nice article Bill,

    The media is going to be blindsided by Apple's GM% cycle. These are supposed to be some of the smartest cats in the world [financial], yet they don't 'want' to see this truth or cycle.

    We need to remove Q4'10 low GM% as that was the bumper program, and remove Q2'12 as that was massive iPhone heavy with once in a lifetime currency favoring. If the media removes those outliers, or better yet, knew what caused them, they will be better off into the future.

    But, as it stands now, the media will lead everyone into this illusion they call "the GM% spiral."

    For those that care: over the next 2 years (product cycle) Apple's GM% will look like this; 38%, 40%, 42%, 45%, repeat, 38%....

    Dec 18 08:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: A Mixed Bag Of Competing Considerations From Fundamental To Technical [View article]
    The MSFT ttm P/E in is article is incorrect. That is a non-gaap PE.
    Dec 15 11:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Unintended Consequences Of The Special Dividend Bubble [View article]
    Damn good article Jason.
    Dec 5 03:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons Why I Think Apple Is Going To Increase Its Payout Next Quarter [View article]
    Who is the most valuable company in the USA? What company holds the most cash?
    Dec 3 11:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Short-Term Weekly Options To Choose From, More Trading Flexibility [View article]
    They did this to take the advantage out of option sellers coming in every week. A counter party had a hard time properly hedging because you just have thursday weekly options or 30+ days out. This takes away some of the advantage sellers had due to the awkward/inconsistent or 7 trading day decay.

    This tightens up spreads and puts everything on the same cycle or at least 30 day.
    Nov 19 09:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Truth About Apple's Q4 Results [View article]
    @ Chuck...

    OI/E would have been $290M, tax that at 24.5% = $219M/948m shares = $0.23 + $8.67 = $8.90

    Q3 OI/E was $288M
    Nov 14 07:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Truth About Apple's Q4 Results [View article]
    Yes, if the street would let Apple offer non-gaap results it would have been $8.92 EPS

    Then add in deferred rev. Wall St isn't smart enough to figure this out though.
    Nov 14 05:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Don't Understand Apple's Math - A Mistake [View article]
    Nice article.
    Nov 14 01:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Reason Apple Keeps Going Down [View article]
    Tax selling on 1-20 yrs worth of gains before rates increase, followed by forced liquidation.

    As long as you know why and the mechanics, it's not a big deal. Just like a QQQ rebalance, the stock will adjust itself back to its B-Sheet.
    Nov 9 03:20 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Has Changed For Apple? [View article]
    What has changed with AAPL? Nothing, what has changed is the tax code. After tax selling is done, the stock price will adjust to reflect its current balance sheet. Just like the QQQ rebal. What changed with AAPL there? Nothing, the price adjusted back to balance sheet after forced selling was completed.
    Nov 8 03:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple A Growth Stock Or A Dividend Stock Now? [View article]
    I'd rather keep the dividend in the stock. This way you can take it out at each individual investors discretion. I would lower the div to $0.25 from $2.65. Cash is better served within the stock, not out, especially if Div tax goes from 15% to 44.7%, while cap gains will go from 15%-24.7%.
    Nov 6 10:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment