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Travis Lewis  

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  • Apple Is Sandbagging More Than You Think [View article]
    @Author

    You forgot to add in your article Non-current DR.
    Oct 30, 2012. 09:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Despite Possible Earnings Beat, Amazon Shares May Sputter [View article]
    Correction: the P/E will move to 2,750, sorry, I was slightly off.
    Oct 25, 2012. 07:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Despite Possible Earnings Beat, Amazon Shares May Sputter [View article]
    AMZN is a perfect case study for behavioral finance/science. That is all it trades off.

    1 of 2 things will happen tomorrow. The stock will drop like the Tigers tonight, or the P/E will move to 400 on negative growth.
    Oct 24, 2012. 11:38 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple Expensive At 5x Cash Holdings? [View article]
    @ Author

    But if AAPL trades up/down of 5x's cash, how has AAPL stock peaked? If growth goes to 0% over the next 5 years they will have $325B in cash or $345 cash per share x 5 = $1,725.

    Even MSFT has held onto up/down of 5x's cash.

    Stocks are valued for their cash over long term. That's it. If MSFT never spent a dime of its cash. They would have a market cap of at least $1.5T
    Oct 19, 2012. 08:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple Expensive At 5x Cash Holdings? [View article]
    Ok, I may need to update the GOOG share price number now :o)

    $690/$121 = 5.7x's cash vs AAPL's $630/$123.77 = 5.09
    Oct 18, 2012. 01:06 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple Expensive At 5x Cash Holdings? [View article]
    Correct me if wrong but doesn't GOOG have $39B net cash ($-debt). This would be $121 cash per share. $750/$121 = 6.2 cash to stock ratio.

    If AAPL traded that. $123.77 x 6.2 = $767.37

    If those Google numbers are correct. Then GOOG and AAPL don't even remotely trade the same valuation.
    Oct 18, 2012. 12:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Open Interest Explodes: Sets All-Time Highs [View article]
    Linked your article on twitter/stocktwits. Just stopping by to say nice work.
    Oct 11, 2012. 01:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lessons From Apple's Fiscal Q3 Instructive For Current Quarter Predictions [View article]
    @ Author,

    What does 5mm in iPhone 5 sales to customers over launch weekend have to do with what they will report in their 10-K? (iP5 only)

    Did Tim report: in customers hands or channel? If 5 mm were in customers hands by Monday, was the channel sitting zero for 7+ days from Hon Hai to USA?
    Oct 2, 2012. 09:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Why Earnings Will Grow Less Than Analysts Expect [View article]
    @ Dialectical

    I have never understood people loving gross revenue increasing and saying "yeah but still" when it comes to net rev or profits, aka the stuff you actually keep.

    I see it the opposite, gross rev is a non-issue, I love the bottom line. We are obviously 100% correct in our thinking or else you would see lemonade stands going public. AMZN is built on a lemonade stand model. It's not for profit.
    Sep 29, 2012. 11:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Why Earnings Will Grow Less Than Analysts Expect [View article]
    @ Author

    Hmm, 1 question; What happens if Apple's cash strategy stays stagnate until 2017? That would equal a min of $300B in cash/equivs. What happens if risk free rate increases just slightly? In 2017 you could see $2B just on the OI/E line.

    One more question, if you think you're tough enough. MSFT grows extremely fast right? MSFT trades 17% cash to market cap. So if AAPL can grow...in this case, anti-grow like MSFT's last qtr (1-off's are real) in 2017, that would put AAPL $300/.17 = 1.7B market cap.

    Oh, MSFT is cherry picking. OK, let's use CSCO. It trades 32% cash to market cap. If AAPL trades CSCO status in 2017 its market cap will be $300/.32 = $937B.

    Please, the only cats that matter are those who recognized reality. We saw deferred revenue like it was an F'ing red light district. The media/public/haters etc were blinded and said it didn't exist. -- Oh, it existed all right.
    Sep 28, 2012. 11:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Apple Bulls Aware Of The Downside Risk To The iPhone? [View article]
    The cool thing is; stocks don't price in the future. And yes, the correct way to put it is, 'they don't price in the future correctly'.

    Either way, they don't price in the future. If they did, why was RIMM ever $140? Why was GOOG $740 in 2007? What, did the market price in Android yet AAPL was only $200 and it forgot to price in iOS? Nope. That can't be, cause the market doesn't discriminate stocks right?

    If stocks price in the future, why did AAPL not react to the 2mm iPhone announcement until 'after' it hit the wires? I thought...

    Stocks price in the past. Point blank.

    Always remember, Wall St is not smarter than you. Wall St is the ones who sold you diworsification and stock price in the future...both epic fails.

    2008 proves 1 and many of us buying AAPL sub $100 proves #2.

    Pop quiz: How is it possible to have a negative cost basis in AAPL?
    Sep 19, 2012. 10:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell Apple And Run Away? [View article]
    @ Bob Hu

    10Q/ page 3/ under "Liabilities"

    http://bit.ly/RKVnX3 (10Q link)
    Sep 8, 2012. 04:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell Apple And Run Away? [View article]
    Margins will stay elevated for a very long time due to all the deferred revenue and non-current DR that will constantly be flowing into earnings.

    Apple currently has $8.35B in deferred revenue.
    Sep 8, 2012. 02:47 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 75 Million iPhone 5 Sales Equals $1000 Apple Share Price [View article]
    Apple's P/E bottomed from a recent 12 and will keep moving higher very slowly, long as the cash strategy stays the same.

    Earnings will be pretty irrelevant going forward. Apple will trade of its cash price like it always has. As long as cash rises, so will the stock. If cash stops rising, so will the stock. No other metrics needed.

    Cash ratio is the Alpha and Omega. Wall St has an agreement with Apple's stock. It is allowed to trade based on cash and nothing more. iPhone, Mac, iPad sales all need not apply.
    Sep 6, 2012. 04:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's P/E Ratio Rising - How High Is Too High? [View article]
    @GoWhite'

    I would highly recommend selling $695 weekly calls every week until they are called away. For the most part, selling them on Tuesday or Wed open is best. Or If the $690 premium is $5, then sell the $690's.

    Once the shares are removed on that Saturday, write x contracts at your entry point you like. The benefit to writing puts at your pullback level, you don't get scared out on the dip and freeze. You are locked in. Way too many people say " I would back up the truck @$525, yet when gets to $525 they freeze.
    Aug 29, 2012. 05:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
309 Comments
479 Likes