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Travis Lewis

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  • Apple's P/E Ratio Rising - How High Is Too High? [View article]
    Nice write up Richard.

    Over the next few years it will be more important to use cash to stock price ratio than P/E. The more cash AAPL builds, the higher the P/E will go. Extreme current example: If AAPL had $500B cash and its ttm EPS dropped and stayed $35 forever, P/E will rise into perpetuity as long as cash continues its rise.
    Aug 27, 2012. 03:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Too Far Too Fast, Again [View article]
    If anyone wanted to quote actual facts on matching Apple's last supposed parabolic run in the spring, you would need to use 6.21 x's cash. That is the peak AAPL reached.

    6.21 x $123.77 = $768.61. This would match the last run. This would also need to happen pre earnings.
    Aug 27, 2012. 12:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Split Apple [View article]
    For a split to be meaningful to people who can't afford, or think $600 is too much, you would need to go 10:1 - 20:1.

    I would high suggest no company ever put out 10B-20B share float. The float will just churn and stock will go nowhere. And BIDU cannot be used as example. They split but only have float in the millions.

    If anything, a reverse split would be best. Bring the float down to 300M shares or so. Apple would initially sky rocket as demand would overwhelm the small amount of shares. (Same thing could happen to downside, but I think it would come from a much higher P/E)

    In reality if I were Tim Cook. I would do exactly as they are. Keep the float 950M shares forever. Only buyback what you dish out in RSU's. But hey, that's why I invest in Apple, they manage a company exactly how I would.
    Aug 21, 2012. 07:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Excessive Speculation In Apple Call Options? [View article]
    Um, just options expiration is all. You will see this same activity every 4-5 weeks. Same time, same place. You had big OI on the $640 and $650, so of course you're going to see massive volume in calls on a monthly opex.
    Aug 18, 2012. 04:39 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Buy Put Options To Protect Gains [View article]
    @ Author

    You always have to go with the for sure thing. Hedging (how 99% of ppl do) costs lots of money as mentioned previously.
    Aug 16, 2012. 07:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Buy Put Options To Protect Gains [View article]
    I'd take the opposite approach, but that's just me and at least 1 follower. Not sure what too far, too fast is but sounds cool, kinda like hedging. Cool buzz word but actually removes monies net net in the end.

    @ author commented to someone "sorry but this strategy has the potential to profit in various ways. "

    I want to visually highlight the word [potential] Potential is cool, I guess.

    I would use absolute. Again, just me w/ an
    ≧ +1. This is using the authors parameters or I am trying to match them.

    Sell a Jan'13 $670 call for $25+. This is a guarantee profit. There is no, "I hope this makes money". Soon as that call is fiilled you are guaranteed a profit. In fact you will make int. off it in the in-between time.

    If AAPL drops to $570 -- which it may or may not. That $670 call will be worth $8.50 in 2.32 weeks. You just gained a risk free $16.5. No big deal.

    If AAPL jumps to $650 on 12/31, that same call will be worth $8.50. Hmm, stock jumped $30 and you're short call is sitting flat?

    Say AAPL jumps to $720 a week from now. Boo-hoo, you net net sold AAPL for $695 + 1 more div payment.

    Point: This is a risk free way to play. You need to take the 100% winner. Leave the 50/50 odds to the 99%er's.
    Aug 9, 2012. 09:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Ex-Dividend Dates Work [View article]
    @Author, your chart is incorrect. 'T' is short for Trade. '+3' is short for 3 additional days.

    Therefore, T is 08/08, +1 is 08/09 or ex-div, +2 is 08/10, +3 is 08/13.
    Aug 7, 2012. 10:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Dividend Demand Moving The Stock [View article]
    The last day to own The Apple is 08/08/12. If you buy Apple on 08/09/12, you will not receive the Div. It's T+3 business days. Not actual days.
    Jul 31, 2012. 03:30 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Options Traders Looking Forward To July Earnings - In August [View article]
    Apple will report earnings July 24th as $40B in sales type company cannot ready its books in 2 weeks.

    I would love to see it the week of the 16th. In fact, reporting on the 19th would be an amazing show on expiry. Sad truth is, 3 weeks after qtr end is it.

    Wish you prosperity.
    Jun 26, 2012. 09:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Apple Story: Alpha, Algos And A Poorman [View article]
    The more people pick up on this trend caused by mechanics/other, it will need to be adjusted. An example would be, buy @ 12pmPT/3pmET on Friday. Get in earlier than the crowd. just food for thought.
    Jun 22, 2012. 04:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • An Apple Story: Alpha, Algos And A Poorman [View article]
    I received a question on twitter | "couldn't one just buy a full position long on Friday and sell half Tuesday and the other half Wednesday?"

    My answer was yes.

    You can alter this how you see fit. Selling on Wednesday open usually will have a higher price than Tuesday close (adding more info) The main reason I started to use Tuesday close was to remove earnings release/vola (AAPL reports Tuesday nights) and to use the least amount of time risk in the markets.

    Overall takeaway should be the last graph of the "rise and fall". Thanks to everyone for the comments. I wish prosperity to all.
    Jun 8, 2012. 09:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Apple Story: Alpha, Algos And A Poorman [View article]
    Hey, dpk

    You are 100% correct. I personally do think with WWDC coming it will have an effect. I employ many other strategies based on fundies and economic factors, events etc.

    It just happens to be, this particular strategy I don't control it. It is on auto-pilot. Even if I know it will be wrong, I let it do its thing. The goal is between 1/1-12/31 not week by week.

    My main takeaway is, put your mind at ease why AAPL trades the way it does.

    Have good one and here's to $700+ come 12/31.
    Jun 7, 2012. 09:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Apple Story: Alpha, Algos And A Poorman [View article]
    @ Internal

    That's ok if not 1 person uses this to trade. That was never the goal. I will feel like I have done my duty if AAPL drops on a Friday for no reason and someone references this to comfort their mind as to the 'why'.

    If the SPY was up 2% on a Friday yet AAPL was flat and they feel 100% comfortable about it, that was the goal of this article. To expose why you see major underperformance vs. the market on certain days.
    Jun 7, 2012. 09:35 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Apple Story: Alpha, Algos And A Poorman [View article]
    Hey Michael,

    You are correct. The results would be different if you do a steady dollar value. Obviously the dollar value ROI will be less since you are buying less shares as it rises.

    The way I look at it or am measuring the performance is strictly alpha against the stock. It is a simple and a clean measure.

    We can look at Jan 1st 2011 for dollar value, ($100K/$322=310 shares x 79 points = $24.5K (365 holding days)

    Just for exercise I'll grab a random number closer to the 2011 higher end. $100K/$380=263 shares x 168 points = $44,184 (208 holding days)

    The ROI % wise (168 gain on 322 vs 380) is less using strictly dollar, but point is exposing the trend and using a point for point gain/loss to illustrate my findings. My overall concern to point out was, look where AAPL is getting all its yearly gains from, Mon-tues, Not Thurs-Fri.

    Have good one.
    Jun 7, 2012. 12:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Apple Story: Alpha, Algos And A Poorman [View article]
    You can I suppose but a few reasons why I don't or it is not built for options:

    You are looking for consistency which options do not carry, the delta will change, the IV etc. You may pay more premium some weeks than others. There are many weeks this will go against you so it needs to stay 100 delta with no gamma (stock). For example, a $5K ATM options this week may be very different from an ATM in 4 weeks. You need to always lose the same amount and gain the same amount. Options don't let you do that as the greeks change.

    This is just one of the many strategies I use. The major takeaway is the trend, feel free to use options to exploit it, I would stick to the Fri-tues side than the wed side if I did use options though.
    Jun 7, 2012. 12:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment