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Travis Lewis

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  • The Markets Calm Down, Thanks to Apple and the Fed [View article]
    You are absolutely correct in calling out market cap is irrelevant to how expensive or discounted a stock trades at, I have no clue where these folks come from.

    Also Warren Buffet type investing..Find a stock that makes you $1 worth of earnings and buy it at 50 cents...

    Well that is exactly where aapl is trading at, aapl is estimated to grow FY'10 EPS by 38%.

    FY'09 $9.08 Actual - FY'10 $12.50 Est = 38% YoY Growth

    Apple currently trades at a 19 P/E (ttm)...So you are able to buy a big cap tech company with a bullet proof balance sheet for 50 cents on the dollar? Show me where you will get this opportunity again? This is the type of story you find in a undiscovered small cap, not a worldwide well known, highly traded company.
    Feb 24 04:29 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Wouldn't Trade Apple Right Now [View article]
    @ Author

    You said " But I do know that there is no logical explanation for a 30% move in one month."

    Your thinking is typical. Nothing wrong with that.

    Fact is; Apple is in a correction like 99.9% of the people have been calling for. It just happens to be in a valuation-correction. Not a standard downward correction.

    99.9% of people that have been calling for a correction have been spot on and they don't even know it.

    I would of ended with "But I do know there is no logical explanation for a 12-18 P/E on 117% Y/Y growth.
    Mar 22 01:06 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Mini 'Flash Crash' Today [View article]
    There are to many exchanges and trading is to fast..It is just chaotic...For those who don't see it, these mini-flash crashes are as daily as sirens being heard....Soon enough they aren't heard anymore.

    We need to go to only few exchanges with 1 central place they clear and be slowed to 1 second min order before can pull and min 1 second trades.

    If we keep going this path we will find out what financial anarchy looks like.
    Feb 10 03:54 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Stock at a Critical Juncture [View article]
    Will love to watch the day Aapl takes itself private.....How awesome would it be for Oppie on a CC when asked about cash and what going to do with it, "We are trying to save up enough to buy ourselves"

    Their answer to Wall St....Go get another trading vehicle.
    May 22 10:58 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why the iPad Will Flop [View article]
    Man, How mad are you that you aren't long aapl?
    Apr 4 12:28 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's P/E Calculation: Subtract The Cash? [View article]
    How to correctly pull cash from a P/E. And in 1 sentence. If you pull cash from the "P" side, you need to pull it from the "E" side.

    $380 - $81 (cash) = $299 cash adjusted stock price

    $25.26 ttm EPS - $0.43 (interest earnings on cash) = $24.83 cash adjusted earnings

    $299/$25.26 = 11.84 P/E Typical media quoted

    $299/$24.83 = 12.04 P/E cash backed out correct way.

    Note: This was first brought to my attention by the highly regarded Turley Muller back in a 2008 article.

    I have been a huge backer of doing it the right way....until well, it just doesn't matter much these days. Trying to make something out of nothing here.

    "I am asserting that such a procedure necessarily leads to an EV analysis that is much less flattering to AAPL than a simple PE analysis."

    Our definitions of "much" are, well much different as 0.2 P/E doesn't ruffle my feathers.
    Aug 17 12:17 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: The Time to Buy Has Passed [View article]
    Boils down to this

    Ticker symbol xyz just grew it's earnings by 125% with no signs of slowing. What multiple does it deserve?
    Jul 21 01:15 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's War Chest: Rethinking the Theory That Cash Is a Burden [View article]
    @ Spa,

    Agree, thats my only wish for AAPL. Stock split 10/1 and let it be.
    Jul 7 06:04 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Android's Tablet Splash: Much Ado About Nothing? [View article]
    Well if we are using shipped numbers then ipad was 7.3M sold to end user then 500K + shipped and that tapped aapl out, they were at 100% capacity....So what's potential growth for ipad?

    Watch for Tab buy one get one free or $99 etc or else about 100 will ship next qtr.
    Jan 31 06:07 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Verizon iPhone That Cried Wolf [View article]

    Nicely said...Verizon or Aapl have never even came close to crying wolf once.....The rumor mill from bloggers and "people close to the situation"

    More accurate article would be

    "When will the media stop making up rumors to sell more article"
    Jan 10 11:08 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Time to Start Worrying? [View article]
    Apple had an ASP of $600 per iphone/hardware only, so $500'ish is about $870 Million dollars off the mark per last Qtr., Then they make around another $50 per phone in carrier payments/accessories total but then $25 gets deferred, so $625 net is more like it but $600 is close enough.

    You may have been implying something else regarding cash and balance sheet but for the record aapl has $45 per share in cash/equivs.

    All aapl needs is rate to return to historic levels and they can be back up where they used to be with $400 mill in OI&E, that was with $20 Bill in cash though.

    The $12.98 FY'10 EPS is going to be pre-iPad. When that thing hits the books, look for a line on the grid resembling the iPhone as far as profits. You may be up around $14 for FY"10.

    Aapl grew Q2 yoy EPS by 86%, they trade at a 23 P/E

    23 P/E implies you are paying $23 for $1 of earnings.

    Aapl grew it's ttm EPs by 47%

    23 / 47 = you are paying $0.48 for $1 of earnings growth.

    You tell me where to sign bud. Wake me when it gets to $1.50 for $1 of earnings growth.
    Apr 23 05:46 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's AT&T Deal: Setting the Record Straight [View article]
    @ Turley...Great Article, all while using actual facts and not just numbers out of thin air like so many analysts do.
    Nov 24 05:48 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Belongs in Every Portfolio [View article]
    You might want to correct a few statements, Apple books 12.5% of it's iphone revenue per quarter. 1 iphone sale is booked over an 8 Quarter time period. Not that big of a deal either but apple has $28.1 billion in cash/equiv as of Dec 29th 2008. Thirdly analyst have brought the companies earnings in so low for the june quarter I wouldn't be suprised of a beat and raise guidance of $1.05- $1.15 guidance vs the street expects $1.11, so this would be considered a huge positive outlook.
    Apr 12 10:45 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Problem With Apple Is Apple [View article]
    This cannot be said enough. Law of Large Numbers has to do with coin flips. It has nothing to do with growth, anti-growth, stocks etc.

    That's where I stopped reading so cannot comment further.
    Jan 31 05:12 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell Apple And Run Away? [View article]
    Margins will stay elevated for a very long time due to all the deferred revenue and non-current DR that will constantly be flowing into earnings.

    Apple currently has $8.35B in deferred revenue.
    Sep 8 02:47 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment