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Trefis

 
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  • Intel's New Lineup To Threaten Nvidia's Leadership In The HPC Market
    Nov. 21, 2014 INTC 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Intel has been trying to challenge Nvidia’s position in HPC accelerators with its Xeon Phi co-processors, launched in 2012.
    • Of the world's top supercomputers that use a co-processor or accelerator, 67% employ NVIDIA GPUs and 25% have implemented Intel's Xeon Phi.
    • Our current price of $34 for Intel is almost in line with the current market price.
  • AMD Introduces New Mobile APUs, Slashes Price Of Exisiting Ones To Gain Back Lost PC Market Share From Intel
    Nov. 20, 2014 AMD 13 Comments

    Summary

    • AMD announces new mobile APUs designed as complete solutions for gaming, productivity applications and ultra high-definition 4K experiences.
    • AMD continues to struggle in the Computing and Graphics business due to ongoing weakness in the consumer PC market.
    • We believe in the company’s long-term growth potential, reflected in our price estimate of $4.12, which represents a more than 50% premium to the current market price.
  • Why We Believe AMD Is Worth $4
    Nov. 19, 2014 AMD 31 Comments

    Summary

    • AMD believes its increasing focus on commercial PCs will help it improve its performance in this segment.
    • AMD also improved its notebook APU mix last quarter - Kaveri processors saw mobile design wins and its higher-end mobile processor unit shipments increased nearly 50%.
    • AMD also devised a unified gaming strategy in that addresses its plan to drive the gaming market across consoles, cloud platforms, tablets and PCs.
  • BlackBerry Launches BES 12, Partners With Samsung To Ride The MDM Wave
    Nov. 18, 2014 BBRY 57 Comments

    Summary

    • BlackBerry is banking on BES 12 to double its software revenues to $500 million by 2015.
    • Although BlackBerry is the current leader in the MDM space, with about 14.4% market share according to IDC, it is losing share to rivals such as MobileIron.
    • Trefis has a $9 price estimate for BlackBerry, which is about 20% below the current market price.
  • Intel's Fashion Accessory MICA To Start Selling In December
    Nov. 18, 2014 INTC 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Intel's $495 wearable for women hits retail outlets in time for the holidays.
    • The device will act as a proof-of-concept for OEMs looking to create similar hardware running on Intel processors.
    • We believe that accelerating its entry in wearables augurs well for Intel’s long-term growth potential.
  • Applied Is Confident On Retaining The Strong Growth Momentum In Fiscal 2015
    Nov. 14, 2014 AMAT 1 Comment
  • Yahoo Eyes Video Ad Dollars With BrightRoll Acquisition
    Nov. 12, 2014 YHOO 1 Comment

    Summary

    • This acquisition can catapult Yahoo to a No. 1 position in terms of the number of ads served in the US.
    • BrightRoll leads the video ad tech industry, and continues to dominate over some of the top ad tech platforms such as LiveRail and Adapt.tv.
    • Video online ad spending is expected to exceed $12.71 billion by 2018.
  • Cisco Earnings Preview: Emerging Markets In Focus
    Nov. 11, 2014 CSCO Comment!

    Summary

    • Cisco announced a mixed set of Q4 FY2014 results, as revenues declined marginally but the company beat guidance.
    • Cisco saw revenues drop year-over-year by 1% to $12.36 billion, as sustained weakness in emerging markets and sluggish spending by service providers weighed on results.
    • Cisco is facing a tough business environment in areas such as Brazil, Russia, India and China, where customers are cutting their network spending.
  • Viacom To Benefit From Transformers Movie But Softer Cable Networks Ratings Will Weigh On Earnings
    Nov. 11, 2014 VIA Comment!
  • AOL Earnings: Programmatic Platform, Mobile And Videos Boost Ad Revenues
    Nov. 10, 2014 AOL Comment!
  • Harley-Davidson: Geared For Growth In Europe
    Nov. 10, 2014 HOG Comment!

    Summary

    • Harley-Davidson has been on a steady road to recovery since its overall wholesale motorcycle shipments dropped to just over 200,000 units in 2010.
    • Harley’s domestic business is threatened by an aging baby boomer population, which forms the core customer base for the iconic motorcycle maker.
    • Will Harley-Davidson return to 2006 levels any time soon?
  • Disney Posts 16% Earnings Growth Led By The Studio's Success At The Box-Office And The Theme Park Operations
    Nov. 7, 2014 DIS 2 Comments
  • Inefficiencies In Transition To New Assembly Line Force Tesla To Revise Outlook
    Nov. 7, 2014 TSLA 142 Comments

    Summary

    • Tesla earnings impacted by shift to new production facility.
    • Introduction of the Model X by mid-2015 should help Tesla meet production rate targets.
    • Tesla continues to develop lease program to attract buyers.
  • Alibaba Flexes Its Growth Muscle In Quarterly Results
    Nov. 6, 2014 BABA 10 Comments

    Summary

    • Rising monetization on the mobile platform, coupled with 52% year-over-year increase in the annual active buyer base, fueled the company's solid performance.
    • Alibaba has tremendous potential to expand its business not only within China but also in international markets.
    • We forecast the company's top-line to grow rapidly in the next few years.
  • Qualcomm's Quarter Impacted By Licensing Issues In China, Though 3G/4G Device Sales Continue To Rise
    Nov. 6, 2014 QCOM 17 Comments

    Summary

    • A mixed bag for Qualcomm on earnings.
    • Qualcomm remains the global leader in LTE.
    • Company will look to resolve licensing issues in China in 2015.
  • Nvidia's Quarterly Performance To Be Driven By PC Gaming, Tegra Processors And Data Centers
    Nov. 5, 2014 NVDA Comment!

    Summary

    • Nvidia remains focused on addressing the top 30% of the market, mainly those vertical segments within a broader computing market where visual computing matters the most.
    • These include PC gaming, professional visualization and design, high-performance computing and big data analytics.
    • This focus has helped it outpace the PC market, where it has always had a significant exposure.
  • Symantec Q2FY15 Preview: Spin-Off Of Storage Management Software Division In Focus
    Nov. 4, 2014 SYMC Comment!

    Summary

    • We recently revised our price estimate to $25 for Symantec.
    • For the upcoming quarter, we expect a strong performance from Symantec, buoyed by its restructuring initiatives and the spin-off of its storage management software business.
    • Spinning off the storage management business could re-accelerate sales growth for Symantec's core security software business.
  • Qualcomm's Growth In Q4 2014 To Be Driven By Higher 3G/4G Device Demand, Though License Business Remains Uncertain
    Nov. 3, 2014 QCOM 1 Comment

    Summary

    • The company's top line growth is being restricted by a maturing high end smartphone market and increasing demand from cost-sensitive emerging markets such as China.
    • Qualcomm witnessed some headwinds in its licensing division, reporting lower than expected revenue from the business in Q3 2014.
    • The biggest opportunity for Qualcomm in China is China Mobile, which is transitioning from its TD-SCDMA standard to TD-LTE.
  • AOL Earnings Preview: Focus On Growth In RTB And Ad Revenues
    Oct. 31, 2014 AOL Comment!

    Summary

    • While the company posted 12% year-over-year growth in total revenues for the June quarter to $606.8 million, its net income was flat at $27.4 million.
    • The company reported growth in revenues largely due to the prolific use of its real-time bidding platform.
    • We expect this trend to continue in Q3 as well, and are closely following the revenue growth from the ad platform.
  • Samsung Could Refocus Growth Strategy As Q3 Earnings Plummet
    Oct. 31, 2014 SSNLF 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Samsung's smartphone business faces its biggest test yet, challenged by the arrival of Apple's large-screen iPhones and increasing competition from budget offerings.
    • Semiconductor operations did well, aided by strong DRAM and NAND memory shipments.
    • The consumer electronics division was weighed down by seasonally lower sales for appliances and lower pricing for televisions.
  • Broadcom's Infrastructure Business To Be Lumpy Near-Term, Long-Term Growth Remains Intact
    Oct. 30, 2014 BRCM Comment!

    Summary

    • Broadcom reported a strong Q3 2014, primarily driven by strength in set-top box, broadband access and connectivity products.
    • While the infrastructure business may remain lumpy in the short-term, the company will benefit from new product launches and capabilities rolling out in the near future.
    • The company believes that 2014 will mark its third consecutive year of double-digit growth for its infrastructure business.
  • Factors Responsible For The 20% Decline In Our Valuation For Cree
    Oct. 29, 2014 CREE 3 Comments

    Summary

    • The LED manufacturer reported disappointing earnings for the first quarter of fiscal 2015.
    • While Cree's lighting business continues to grow at a strong pace, lower LED demand and declining gross margins are impacting the company's near-term growth prospects.
    • Despite short-term weakness, we continue to believe in Cree's long-term growth potential.
  • Expedia Q3 Earnings Preview: Successful Partnerships To Fuel Growth In The Quarter
    Oct. 28, 2014 EXPE Comment!

    Summary

    • Expedia performed strongly in the first half of 2014 with revenue reflecting a 22% year-on-year growth.
    • Expedia recently announced the continuance of its partnership with HomeAway, the world's largest vacation rental website.
    • In Q2, Expedia's worldwide room sales were close to 46 million, yielding a 28% year-on-year growth and partner Travelocity contributed to 4% of that growth.
  • F5 To Retain Its Growth Momentum In Q4
    Oct. 28, 2014 FFIV Comment!

    Summary

    • F5 claims to have experienced a very strong increase in its business pipeline in Q3 which it believed would translate into growth in Q4 2014 as well as fiscal 2015.
    • F5 intends to continue introducing significant enhancements and world-leading technology in its key focus areas.
    • The company plans to make infrastructure investments in additional data centers and security operation centers to ensure growth in its cloud-based opportunities.
  • Akamai Earnings Preview: What We Are Watching
    Oct. 27, 2014 AKAM 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Growing Internet speeds, adoption of online streaming services and push from network providers are driving high data usage, and Akamai stands to gain.
    • Security breaches have shaken customer faith. Therefore, we expect steps from merchants and content owners on security and privacy, which could benefit Akamai.
    • Mobile data usage also is set to surge.
  • How Facebook Has Evolved Since The IPO, And Where Is It Headed?
    Oct. 27, 2014 FB 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Facebook's average revenue per user has risen significantly in recent quarters and we expect the trend to continue.
    • But the question that remains is: how will the revenue growth rate trend going forward?
    • One of the observations we make is that Facebook's average ad pricing growth may be nearing its peak and the growth in overall ad revenues could dip below 40% in 2015.
  • Yelp Earnings: Local Business Grows, Albeit At A Lower Pace
    Oct. 24, 2014 YELP 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Yelp reported a substantial improvement in net income, which grew to $3.63 million.
    • Active local business accounts increased by 55% year-over-year to 86,000, and claimed local businesses increased to 1.9 million.
    • The local ads division makes up 80% of Yelp's estimated value.
  • Yahoo Earnings: Mobile, Windfall Profits From Alibaba Sale Boost Results
    Oct. 23, 2014 YHOO 2 Comments

    Summary

    • The sale of Yahoo's 140 million shares in Alibaba boosted its cash position by $7 billion to $12 billion.
    • While Yahoo's core search ad revenues (excluding TAC) improved by 6% year-over-year, its display ad revenues declined by 6%.
    • The primary reason for growth in search ads revenue was the growth in the price per click.
  • Cree's Q1 '15 Results Hit By Weak LED Demand Though Lighting Continues To Grow Strongly
    Oct. 23, 2014 CREE 1 Comment
  • Texas Instruments Reports A Strong Quarter, Believes Its Business Remains Healthy
    Oct. 21, 2014 TXN 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Defying the general view that chip demand might slow down into the year end and early next year, Texas Instruments reported a strong Q3.
    • At $3.5 billion, TI's Q3 2014 revenue grew 8% annually and was in the upper half of company's guided range.
    • Growth in the quarter was driven by strong performance in TI's core businesses of analog and embedded processing.
  • Yelp Earnings Preview: Revenue Growth From Local Ads, Mobile And DPO In Focus
    Oct. 20, 2014 YELP 6 Comments

    Summary

    • While Yelp continues to report growth in its core local ads business, the pace of this growth is directly related to the duration of its presence in the regions where it operates.
    • We expect the mobile platform to become a major revenue driver for Yelp's brand ads division.
    • Currently, Yelp's DPO division contributes only 6% to total revenues. However, we expect its contribution to increase to 8% by 2021.
  • Intuitive Surgical Earnings Preview: Procedure Volumes In Focus
    Oct. 20, 2014 ISRG 5 Comments

    Summary

    • In the previous quarter, the da Vinci robot maker surprised the market with better-than-expected results, although both the top and bottom line continued to decline.
    • When the company announces its third quarter earnings, we expect overall sales to remain under pressure owing to lingering concerns surrounding its da Vinci robotic surgical system and a reduction in the number of robot-assisted surgical procedures.
    • Although a new system is likely to help improve da Vinci system sales going forward, we expect its uptake to be slow in the near term.