Seeking Alpha

Trefis

 
View as an RSS Feed
View Trefis' Articles BY TICKER:
  • F5 To Retain Its Growth Momentum In Q4
    Oct. 28, 2014 FFIV Comment!

    Summary

    • F5 claims to have experienced a very strong increase in its business pipeline in Q3 which it believed would translate into growth in Q4 2014 as well as fiscal 2015.
    • F5 intends to continue introducing significant enhancements and world-leading technology in its key focus areas.
    • The company plans to make infrastructure investments in additional data centers and security operation centers to ensure growth in its cloud-based opportunities.
  • Akamai Earnings Preview: What We Are Watching
    Oct. 27, 2014 AKAM 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Growing Internet speeds, adoption of online streaming services and push from network providers are driving high data usage, and Akamai stands to gain.
    • Security breaches have shaken customer faith. Therefore, we expect steps from merchants and content owners on security and privacy, which could benefit Akamai.
    • Mobile data usage also is set to surge.
  • How Facebook Has Evolved Since The IPO, And Where Is It Headed?
    Oct. 27, 2014 FB 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Facebook's average revenue per user has risen significantly in recent quarters and we expect the trend to continue.
    • But the question that remains is: how will the revenue growth rate trend going forward?
    • One of the observations we make is that Facebook's average ad pricing growth may be nearing its peak and the growth in overall ad revenues could dip below 40% in 2015.
  • Yelp Earnings: Local Business Grows, Albeit At A Lower Pace
    Oct. 24, 2014 YELP 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Yelp reported a substantial improvement in net income, which grew to $3.63 million.
    • Active local business accounts increased by 55% year-over-year to 86,000, and claimed local businesses increased to 1.9 million.
    • The local ads division makes up 80% of Yelp's estimated value.
  • Yahoo Earnings: Mobile, Windfall Profits From Alibaba Sale Boost Results
    Oct. 23, 2014 YHOO 2 Comments

    Summary

    • The sale of Yahoo's 140 million shares in Alibaba boosted its cash position by $7 billion to $12 billion.
    • While Yahoo's core search ad revenues (excluding TAC) improved by 6% year-over-year, its display ad revenues declined by 6%.
    • The primary reason for growth in search ads revenue was the growth in the price per click.
  • Cree's Q1 '15 Results Hit By Weak LED Demand Though Lighting Continues To Grow Strongly
    Oct. 23, 2014 CREE 1 Comment
  • Texas Instruments Reports A Strong Quarter, Believes Its Business Remains Healthy
    Oct. 21, 2014 TXN 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Defying the general view that chip demand might slow down into the year end and early next year, Texas Instruments reported a strong Q3.
    • At $3.5 billion, TI's Q3 2014 revenue grew 8% annually and was in the upper half of company's guided range.
    • Growth in the quarter was driven by strong performance in TI's core businesses of analog and embedded processing.
  • Yelp Earnings Preview: Revenue Growth From Local Ads, Mobile And DPO In Focus
    Oct. 20, 2014 YELP 6 Comments

    Summary

    • While Yelp continues to report growth in its core local ads business, the pace of this growth is directly related to the duration of its presence in the regions where it operates.
    • We expect the mobile platform to become a major revenue driver for Yelp's brand ads division.
    • Currently, Yelp's DPO division contributes only 6% to total revenues. However, we expect its contribution to increase to 8% by 2021.
  • Intuitive Surgical Earnings Preview: Procedure Volumes In Focus
    Oct. 20, 2014 ISRG 5 Comments

    Summary

    • In the previous quarter, the da Vinci robot maker surprised the market with better-than-expected results, although both the top and bottom line continued to decline.
    • When the company announces its third quarter earnings, we expect overall sales to remain under pressure owing to lingering concerns surrounding its da Vinci robotic surgical system and a reduction in the number of robot-assisted surgical procedures.
    • Although a new system is likely to help improve da Vinci system sales going forward, we expect its uptake to be slow in the near term.
  • Netflix Sinks On Subscriber Growth Decline: Is The Market Saturating?
    Oct. 17, 2014 NFLX 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Even though company revenues were more or less in-line with expectations, domestic streaming subscriber additions fell significantly short of guidance.
    • Despite strong international growth potential, the U.S. still accounts for roughly 65% of Netflix's value.
    • We find some evidence of subscriber growth moderating and we believe that incremental customer additions will become difficult for Netflix.
  • Intel's Expanding Presence In Mobile And IoT To Help Drive Future Growth
    Oct. 16, 2014 INTC 9 Comments

    Summary

    • While Intel's growth in Q3 was led by strong performances in the PC and Data Center businesses, the company fared well in mobile and Internet-of-Things segments as well.
    • While the company continued to see growth in IoT, which grew 14.2%, its mobile revenue declined from $353 million in Q3 2013 to $1 million in Q3 2014.
    • We believe IoT's contribution to the company's total revenue can double over our review period.
  • Recovering In China Will Be An Arduous Task For Guess
    Oct. 15, 2014 GES Comment!
  • Salesforce.com Plans Entry Into BI Market With 'Wave'
    Oct. 14, 2014 CRM 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Through its new business intelligence cloud offering, Salesforce intends to provide customers with predictive analytics features.
    • Salesforce Wave is designed to make it easier for everyone to explore data, uncover new insights and take action instantly from any device.
    • Salesforce could benefit from a SaaS analytics platform, but competition is intense in the BI Market.
  • Netflix Earnings Preview: Strong Topline Growth Accompanied By Cost Concerns
    Oct. 13, 2014 NFLX 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Netflix is likely to see strong topline growth driven by domestic and international subscriber additions.
    • Margin growth may slow down as a result of incremental investment in the international segment.
    • Additional costs due to interconnection fee agreements with Internet service providers may have a small impact on profitability as well.
  • Should Cisco Split?
    Oct. 10, 2014 CSCO 12 Comments

    Summary

    • Cisco's current structure has often been criticized for being too complicated to make quick decisions and effectively compete against smaller players.
    • The company's stock also has under-performed compared to competitors and the market in general.
    • However, an "intact" Cisco also stands to benefit from its existing customer relationships and industry partners.
  • UPS Access Point Network Could Help Improve Margins And Competitive Edge
    Oct. 9, 2014 UPS 1 Comment

    Summary

    • The primary benefit that UPS would generate from new services is improvement in margins.
    • Apart from that, it will give UPS an edge in the increasingly competitive logistics industry.
    • While competitors provide similar services, the difference between UPS's Access Point network and the FedEx and Amazon services is the scale.
  • Will Symantec Benefit By Separating Its Storage Software Business?
    Oct. 8, 2014 SYMC Comment!

    Summary

    • Symantec is reportedly in talks to spin off its storage software and security software businesses into independent entities.
    • The company entered the storage management software market in 2004 with the acquisition of Veritas Software for approximately $13.5 billion.
    • If Symantec spins off the storage management software business, it would add to the trend of tech majors breaking themselves into smaller pieces.
  • PepsiCo Earnings Preview: U.S. Beverages And Russia Sales In Focus
    Oct. 7, 2014 PEP Comment!

    Summary

    • Beverages and snacks giant PepsiCo is scheduled to announce its third quarter results on October 9.
    • The company’s stock is up over 12% so far this year, more than the growth in chief rival Coca-Cola’s stock and the S&P 500 Index.
    • Analysts expect Q3 revenues to be up 1.2%-1.8% year-over-year, following two quarters of relatively flat growth.
    • We estimate an $89.92 price for PepsiCo, which is roughly 4% below the current market price.
  • Why We Believe Constant Contact Is Worth $30
    Oct. 6, 2014 CTCT Comment!

    Summary

    • So far in FY14, the company's quarterly results were better than consensus estimates.
    • This outperformance from the company hasn't been rewarded by the market, with gains reigned in by profit booking activity.
    • Constant Contact managed to accelerate its year-on-year revenue growth rate from 13.4% in H1FY13 to 15.7% in H1FY14.
  • How Significant Can Keytruda Be For Merck?
    Oct. 3, 2014 MRK 5 Comments

    Summary

    • In this analysis, we will estimate Keytruda’s revenue generating potential.
    • The overall melanoma patient count in the U.S. is estimated at a little over 640,000.
    • If Merck can grab even 10% of the addressable patient pool, Keytruda can earn close to $5 billion in annual revenues.
  • The Positive Side Of The Split Between eBay And PayPal
    Oct. 2, 2014 EBAY 6 Comments

    Summary

    • With the spin-off, PayPal will become more nimble and focused, which is necessary given the recent innovations in the payment processing industry.
    • Additionally, eBay will have more cash to fund its own operations instead of fueling PayPal's growth.
    • Investors are likely to benefit from capital gains as a spin off is usually a tax-free transaction and could unlock hidden value by increasing transparency.
  • Here's Why We Believe Cree Is Still Worth $58
    Oct. 2, 2014 CREE 9 Comments

    Summary

    • Despite reporting strong earnings growth this year, Cree’s stock price has declined by approximately 40% year to date.
    • Lower gross margin, doubts regarding the company’s capability to sustain its growth in the long term, and rising competition are some of the key factors contributing to the negative sentiment.
    • Our price estimate of $58 for Cree is at a 40% premium to the current market price of $41.
  • Amazon's CEO Believes In India's Growth Story
    Sep. 30, 2014 AMZN 19 Comments

    Summary

    • Amazon's management is showing a strong belief in India's growth story.
    • The country's GDP growth could get back on track this year and recent developments suggest there is a lot of interest from investors in e-commerce companies.
    • We believe India's e-commerce market will grow multi-fold over the next five years and, at some point, the Indian government will allow foreign direct investment in the country.
  • Key Growth Drivers For SanDisk's Embedded Storage Division
    Sep. 30, 2014 SNDK 5 Comments

    Summary

    • The growth in the number of smartphones and tablets sold worldwide should contribute positively to SanDisk’s embedded storage division.
    • Despite an expected decline in average selling prices for NAND flash per gigabyte in the coming years, the company expects its addressable market to grow at a CAGR of nearly 10% in the next few years.
    • We expect embedded storage to generate over $2 billion in revenues for SanDisk by the end of the decade.
  • Zynga Not Out Of Troubled Waters
    Sep. 29, 2014 ZNGA 10 Comments

    Summary

    • Zynga's web bookings are declining and the company expects its full-year bookings to total between $695 million and $725 million.
    • NFL Showdown game app saw lower than expected downloads and the upcoming game Loony Tunes Dash again suggests a lack of creativity and originality.
    • The company's licensing agreements with big brands continue to cast a doubt over its ability to create original gaming content.
  • Harley-Davidson's Lower Near-Term Outlook Might Not Mean That It Is Past Its Glory Days
    Sep. 29, 2014 HOG 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Harley-Davidson's stock has declined by over 12% in the last three months, falling by roughly 3% in the last week.
    • The American maker of cult heavyweight motorcycles had a rough sales patch since hitting its peak in 2006.
    • What could worry Harley’s investors and enthusiasts is slowing volume-growth, which has declined sequentially in the last couple of years, and is expected to fall again this year.
  • Intuitive Surgical: Concerns Remain But Expansion Into Emerging Markets Could Revive Growth
    Sep. 29, 2014 ISRG 12 Comments
  • Intel's Collaboration With Tsinghua To Expand Its Footprint In The Chinese Mobile Chip Market
    Sep. 26, 2014 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Tsinghua Unigroup is a government-affiliated private equity firm funded by Tsinghua University in China.
    • Intel will invest $1.5 billion for an approximate 20% stake of the holding company under Tsinghua Unigroup, which will own Spreadtrum Communications and RDA Microelectronics.
    • Spreadtrum and RDA are fabless semiconductor companies in China, developing mobile chipset platforms for smartphones, feature phones and other consumer electronics.
  • A Look At Loan-To-Deposit Ratios At The Country's Largest Banks
    Sep. 25, 2014 JPM, BAC, C 1 Comment
  • Market Potential For Baidu's Popular PC Faster Software
    Sep. 24, 2014 BIDU 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Baidu made news this week by announcing that its PC Faster software completed over 70 million downloads worldwide.
    • PC Faster is a software that tunes personal computers to enhance performance features.
    • Baidu claims PC Faster will be free forever, but we feel the immense market potential could lead it to turn this software into a revenue stream.
  • China Unicom's 3G - 4G Subscriber Adds Slow Down In August On Growing Competition, Dual 4G Strategy
    Sep. 23, 2014 CHU 2 Comments

    Summary

    • China Unicom reported a marked decline in 3G and 4G subscriber additions in August with about 1.3 million adds, compared to over 2.5 million in July and over 3 million in June.
    • In terms of high speed (3G and 4G) user gains, this was the carrier's weakest monthly performance in over three years.
    • China Unicom's performance was dwarfed by market leader China Mobile as well as smaller rival China Telecom.
  • What Justifies A $445 Price Estimate For Netflix?
    Sep. 23, 2014 NFLX 16 Comments

    Summary

    • To justify $445, Netflix will have to accelerate its profit growth in international markets, resort to further price increases and demonstrate business stability.
    • There exists upside potential from higher growth in average monthly revenue per subscriber.
    • International expansion could push quarterly net additions to as high as 2 million, but would lead to a negative impact on profits in the short term.