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  • Whose Notebook PC Business Is Most Valuable? [View article]
    To clarify some of the questions above, we conducted our DCF analysis using a seven year forecast period. You can see additional detail at where you can also modify our forecasts (e.g. pricing, market share, margins) to see what the value would be based on your own beliefs. If you don't have access to the site, you may request an invite at
    Nov 7 09:34 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Qualcomm Facing 20% Downside if Chip Prices Continue to Fall [View article]

    As mentioned above to Jeffrey, we are not changing our views every couple of weeks. We are providing different views and sensitivities with respect to our overall base case (which is transparent and available on our site). I think the confusion comes in because you can't see our entire analysis in these short notes that point to small pieces of analysis or scenarios.

    While we try to always mention how this scenario might deviate from our base case, I understand that it still might not be clear to readers that don't know us. We will work on this.
    Thanks, Trefis Team
    Dec 9 08:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Qualcomm Facing 20% Downside if Chip Prices Continue to Fall [View article]

    We do not pay to be published. These sites pick up our content and republish them, occasionally making some adjustments to titles and some content.

    We are a research firm pure and simple and do not have an agenda behind our research. Quite the opposite, we provide a base level of analysis and are very transparent about how we arrive at our conclusions, and then we look at different scenarios and sensitivities based on what's going on in the market or industry.

    We hope that knowledgeable people like yourself will visit our site and if you disagree or see something that you think could be better in our analysis, then you can contribute by leaving comments and building your own forecasts to demonstrate your views. This might influence or help others out and show where you differ from our analysis rather than just saying we're "wrong," "dumb" or something like that which doesn't really help improve the analysis.

    In the Qualcomm example, this was a scenario we were looking at based on recent trends. This is not our baseline estimate as stated in the article. If you look at our past notes and on our site, we have plenty of positive things to say about QCom.

    Thanks, Trefis Team
    Dec 9 08:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cisco Is Still a $24 Stock [View article]
    Thanks for your comments. We are not as active as checking SA comments as on our own site.

    We like to incorporate value added feedback so please send any questions / concerns to if you would like us to respond directly.

    Regarding the lumpy market share data suggested, dwang is right. This is largely driven by terminal growth values - or by dragging the trend line.
    Nov 30 07:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 30% Upside for Netflix From Falling Subscriber Acquisition Costs [View article]
    Dear Mark B and Josh,
    Thank you for your comments and we apologize that the title came off as misleading, which was not our intention. We need to be more careful about this in the future. Thanks again.
    Nov 14 06:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Apple Sell 28 Million iPads Next Year? [View article]
    Clarification regarding Trefis iPad Unit Sales Forecast:

    The "4 million iPad unit sales in 2010" mentioned in the Trefis article "Apple iPad Not Hurting Mac Sales" (link below) published August 25, 2010 was an editorial mistake at the time and does not represent a change in the Trefis forecast since publication of that article.

    You can verify this by comparing to the iPad forecast shown (10 million in 2010) in an article we published earlier (August 6, 2010) on our own site: "Modest Upside to Apple from Higher iPad Sales" (link below)

    We do apologize for the editorial mistake in the original August 25th article. It was not our intent to mislead.

    In comparison, in February 2010, we did have expectations for 4 million iPad unit sales in 2010. This forecast was made in advance of the iPad release (April 2010) and was later revised based on indications of strong iPad sales. You can verify this also based on the link below.

    Ultimately, our intent is to give you the tools to make create and share your own forecast. For those who feel we're still conservative on iPad sales, you're welcome to create and share your own analysis on Trefis.
    Sep 14 04:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is AT&T Confused - Or Just Smarter than Everyone Else? [View article]
    We suggest that you should check Q3 earnings report for FY'09. AT&T indicated their total expected capital expenditure for 2009 to be in range of $17 billion to $18 billion with majority of it being attributed to wireline segment. Here is relevant text from the report:

    ""In the first nine months of 2009, cash used in investing activities consisted primarily of $11,067 [million] for capital expenditures...Capital expenditures including interest during construction in the wireline segment, which represented 66% of our capital expenditures, decreased 27% in the first nine months of 2009....We continue to expect that our 2009 capital expenditures will be in the range of $17,000 to $18,000 [million]."

    You can access the report here:
    Jan 28 12:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel's Acquisition Of LSI's Networking Business To Boost Its Presence In IoT [View article]
    Actually, we have posted almost ten articles on Intel since the stock was in this range (~$27/sh). We regret that our oversight is distracting you from the extent of our coverage, but thank you for pointing out our error. We corrected as quickly as possible
    Aug 19 10:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel's Acquisition Of LSI's Networking Business To Boost Its Presence In IoT [View article]
    This statement appears in every article we post. It is easiest to copy it from a page of other boiler plate statements we use. In this case, however, we forgot to update the price. Apologies for any confusion.
    Aug 19 10:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Qualcomm Remains The No.1 Player In Cellular Baseband [View article]
    Thank you for your comment. Actually, we are positive on QCOM and we do not short stocks. Please see our comments above. We just have concluded that the increasing proportion of 4G revenue from Chinese sources could create less conducive and more competitive markets for the company. Their position at present is indeed strong. But will it remain unassailable? We are eager to entertain alternative view points. And, again thank you for your response.
    Jul 16 01:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Qualcomm Remains The No.1 Player In Cellular Baseband [View article]
    Thank you for your comment. Actually it is a DCF which you can see by clicking on the P&L button above the tool.

    We invite you to test your own estimates with the tool. As we have written, we believe that increased penetration in China will result in lower royalty rates and pricing--hardly a controversial view.

    But if you assume royalty rates remain flat, our valuation increases to roughly the present market valuation. And if both pricing and the royalty rates remain flat, the valuation increase further still to roughly the consensus price target.

    We assign a higher probability to our base-case valuation. But we freely acknowledge alternative outcomes and invite readers to suggest their own

    Check it out. What is your target?
    Jul 16 01:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Qualcomm Remains The No.1 Player In Cellular Baseband [View article]
    Thank you for your input. Actually, we provide the model that supports our valuation on our website, which you can find at the following link:

    We actually had a prominent link in our article, which the editor has embedded with the word "Qualcomm". So you can also just click on that.

    Please note to that our model is dynamic and you can manipulate the drivers and save your own estimates to create an alternative valuation.

    We also publish research on Intel and Broadcom, as well as TI. So we have commented quite a bit on the market and its players.

    Finally, please check our analysis of Qualcomm. You will see that, in our view, Royalties are the most important driver of the company's valuation. As you can see, we discuss it at length

    Again, thanks for sharing you views. We are glad you read our analysis
    Jul 16 12:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Qualcomm's Royalty Rate Will Continue To Decline [View article]
    Thank you for your comments. We apologize for the fact the title originally read "Qualcomm's Royalty Revenue Will Continue to Decline," which is not what we state in the article. It should read "Qualcomm's Royalty Rate Will . . . " We have requested a change. Funny how the fingers wander at times. We regret our error.

    Regarding our valuation: please feel free to use the driver above to create your own valuation. Just move the line with your cursor. You can adjust multiple drivers if you visit our Qualcomm page; check the link above. One of our readers has modeled a credible alternative valuation of ~$97/sh that you may prefer to ours.
    Jun 11 12:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Has Oracle's Server Division Fared Since Its Acquisition Of Sun Microsystems? [View article]
    Thank you for your comment. Actually, thanks to those of you below as well.

    Yes, Oracle has not exited the x86 server market, just de-emphasized it. Of course it will want a full set of solutions. So we stand corrected
    Mar 14 10:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cord Cutting Continues, But Be Cautious on Netflix Upside [View article]

    Good question and we agree that we could have made it more clearer in the article. To support the claim, one would think that recent economic turmoil would have made consumers re-plan their expenses and discontinuing pay-TV services could have been one of the outcomes. As far as data support goes, the same study that states that there were about 1 million cord-cutters in 2010, also expects this number to decline significantly to 520,000 in 2011. You can refer to the link below.

    Apr 14 01:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment