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Trent Tillman

 
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  • Not All Investors Are Waiting For Facebook: Yelp IPO Opens Up Over 46% [View article]
    Often when an IPO just comes out it is hard to get a borrow on the stock for a period of time in order to short it. The time frame varies from a few days to a couple weeks.
    Mar 6, 2012. 11:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Not All Investors Are Waiting For Facebook: Yelp IPO Opens Up Over 46% [View article]
    The $15 price was the IPO price, and represents the 7.15M shares offered on the deal which were allocated to investors that indicated for shares through their brokers on the deal itself. THe majority of these sahres taypically go to institutional investors (ie mutual funds, hedge funds, etc) that have relationships with the underwriters. On a deal like this which was a "hot" IPO the price the stock actually trades at on the open is higher simply based on the aftermarket demand. In other words there are more orders to buy the stock on the open than there are sell orders from people that were allocated "deal" stock.
    Mar 2, 2012. 03:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • After Much Anticipation, Zynga IPO Prices At $10.00 [View article]
    Books were about 15x oversubscribed and allocations of the deal stock were very small, so frankly I'm very surprised by the poor day one performance.
    Dec 16, 2011. 01:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Angie's List Attracts Plenty Of Investor Interest Despite Losses [View article]
    The idea was simply a trade around the secondary offering as the price dropped significantly going into the deal.
    Nov 18, 2011. 09:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Groupon IPO Will Be A Success [View article]
    Unfortunately the system is not set up to benefit retail accounts, so on a "hot" deal (one which is multiple times oversubscribed) it is very hard for retail investors to get an allocation. The best shot to get an allocation as a retail investor would be to have a meaningful account (and it sounds like your account would qualify) with one of the lead underwriters. I.e. in this case your best shot would have been to get share through Morgan Stanley.
    Nov 6, 2011. 12:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Groupon IPO Will Be A Success [View article]
    The 5x larger is from their roadshow.
    Nov 4, 2011. 08:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Groupon IPO Will Be A Success [View article]
    It is bullish for the deal itself (ie day one performance) as it is an indication of strong demand. Like I mentioned in the article above only one (Metals USA) of the last 61 deals since the begginning of 2008 that priced above the indicated range opened below the IPO price. And only two deals did not close positive one day 1 (one was the deal just mentioned that opened below and the other was Skullcandy that opened with a premium but closed flat).
    Nov 3, 2011. 11:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Groupon IPO Will Be A Success [View article]
    Priced an upsized 35M shares at $20.00...$2 above the range
    Nov 3, 2011. 10:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zeltiq Aesthetics Prices IPO Below Range At $13.00 - Still Too Expensive? [View article]
    The company plans heavy investment in marketing and branding through 2013...these expenses where not part of their 2010 or early 2011 numbers. You may be right that they are profitable in 2012, but my estimates are they will not be until at least 2013.
    Oct 19, 2011. 12:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zeltiq Aesthetics Prices IPO Below Range At $13.00 - Still Too Expensive? [View article]
    For some reason my original comment did not post, right after the stock opened...but basically to re-iterate...I can admit when I was wrong and the stock clearly has had a strong openeing performance relative to the pricing. Is the valuation relative to the peer group at this early stage justified? That is yet to be seen. If the company can execute on thier plan of implementing in 4500 practices then it more than likely will be justified. But based on the performance of the comps and the highly competitive aesthetic market, the jury is still out.
    Oct 19, 2011. 11:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ubiquiti Networks IPO Priced To Work At $15? [View article]
    Yes, I did not disclose the potential conflicts associated with the distributor sales into Iran. I would point those interested to read the prospectus fully to get the company's clarification on that issue. My point solely is giving a brief company description and my opinion as to potential performance based on the IPO of the company. Sorry, if I in any way offended you by not going into detail on that associated risk, but this clearly is a brief article on the IPO of UBNT and not a full research report on the company.
    Oct 18, 2011. 06:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ubiquiti Networks IPO Priced To Work At $15? [View article]
    I haven't done to research on EXTR to give much of any analysis, but one big difference I do see is in the expected growth rates. EXTR revenue estimates look like little or even negative growth in the next couple years, while UBNT is experiencing rapid growth for the foreseable future. As far as the patent infringements, don't all these companies experience potential infringements on a regular basis.
    Oct 18, 2011. 06:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ubiquiti Networks IPO Priced To Work At $15? [View article]
    For FY 2012 (FY end June 30) my estimate is for approx $300M of revenue and EPS of approx 84c...and yes, post offering share count was approx 89.7 million.
    Oct 18, 2011. 06:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Internet Radio Leader Pandora Media's IPO Rocks on Its Debut [View article]
    My point was the people who were allocated shares on the IPO had the opportunity to sell up 25%+ during day one, while those looking to buy in the aftermarket better be careful.
    Jun 17, 2011. 10:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Solazyme Looks to End a Mixed Week of IPOs on a High Note [View article]
    Thanks Bill...right back at you as I have read a number of yours as well.
    May 28, 2011. 04:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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