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Trevor Lowenthal  

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  • Update: BioLife Announces Preliminary Revenues For 2014 [View article]
    Thanks, and I appreciate your continued readership.

    Best,
    Trevor
    Feb 28, 2015. 08:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: BioLife Announces Preliminary Revenues For 2014 [View article]
    Hi GrowthGeek,

    That is an excellent question. Thanks for posing it. I have several reasons for holding back at the moment, but they are quickly evaporating. First, I don't tend to take positions in the companies I cover - with the exceptions being OXiGENE (OXGN), AmpliPhi Biosciences (APHB) and Synthetic Biologics (SYN). I made those investments before I actually began writing on Seeking Alpa. I like to maintain a non biased approach to the companies I cover because I believe it fosters more trust among readers, prospective investors, shareholders, and management. 2) BioLife CEO Mike Rice and CFO Daphne Taylor have been so kind to provide me with access over the past year. I wouldn't want to jeopardize that in any way. And 3) BioLife is a long-term play, and we should see dips here and there that will serve as buying opportunities down the road. I am over extended at the moment with other investments in small caps, so I haven't had the opportunity to target BioLife just yet.

    Please don't perceive my reluctance to invest at the moment as a reflection of how I think the company is performing. For the aforementioned reasons, my hands are tied.

    Thanks,
    Trevor
    Feb 27, 2015. 01:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Synthetic Biologics: A Speculative Small Cap Packed With Power [View article]
    Makes perfect sense. I want to see more insider buying, but I can't deny the fact that the pipeline is compelling both from a value standpoint and a technological standpoint.

    If you haven't already, take a look at my article on SYN's Trimesta drug. http://bit.ly/183A4vf
    Feb 26, 2015. 08:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Synthetic Biologics: A Speculative Small Cap Packed With Power [View article]
    Hi Tom, I wouldn't read too much into it. Kanzar also sold for the wrong reasons, in my opinion. Likely due to a dispute with management, so selling his massive position in SYN could have been in retaliation.
    Feb 26, 2015. 02:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China Biologic Products Q4 2014 Earnings: Primed For A Sell-Off? [View article]
    Hi Joel,

    With this article (and the various hedges that come along with it), I am simply trying to convey that I'm not a clairvoyant. The last thing I want is a reader who fails to do their own DD before an important earnings event. But to provide somewhat of a comprehensive scope, I must recognize that the stock could rise as well, no?
    Ultimately, I am projecting an earnings drop (varying in severity depending on the factors noted in the article).
    Regardless, thanks for reading.
    Feb 23, 2015. 10:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: BioLife Announces Preliminary Revenues For 2014 [View article]
    Hi GreenGrowthGeek,

    Thanks for reaching out. Please see my comment above as it is applicable to your inquiry.
    Feb 21, 2015. 02:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: BioLife Announces Preliminary Revenues For 2014 [View article]
    Thanks for reaching out, Graham. Your comments are always appreciated. I'm afraid there really isn't a way of knowing how much revenue we are talking about here.

    For example, I briefly looked over an article on Pubmed (http://1.usa.gov/1zUWfdp), and saw that competitors are being offered an alternative solution to the Dextran shortage. I'm not sure as to whether the technology is up to par with BioLife's, but I think it underscores the negative impact on BioLife revenues as a result of the "home-brewed" approach (alternative methods) to addressing the shortage.

    The one thing that I find troubling with BioLife is the complete lack of any sort of sales/revenue projections for its various side business ventures. Not saying that this isn't justified, but from an investor's standpoint it is difficult to establish any sort of valuation based on these side ventures. I don't think it would be advantageous to attempt to do so either.

    I'm quite certain that reaching out to management will do no good, as they are not in the position to be providing guidance on any of these side businesses, since they are early stage and little is known about the genuine demand. Indeed, customers may have expressed interest in Dextran products to combat the shortage, but how will that convert into real sales and earnings growth?

    My guess is, the value of this particular venture is small. Otherwise, the big boys would have caught on by now and kicked the share price up, and management would have emphasized the increased earnings power in PR material.

    I hope I've added some additional insight. Please let me know what you think.

    Best,
    Trevor
    Feb 21, 2015. 02:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: With Revenues Falling Sharply, Expect A Major Acquisition For Pfizer [View article]
    Thanks Popster! Sorry I didn't see this until now. I really appreciate your continued support. I find it interesting that Pfizer announced the Hospira acquisition only a few days after this article was published :) . Makes me look like I know what I'm talking about!
    Feb 20, 2015. 08:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: China Biologic Products Adopts Stockholder Plan To Avoid Hostile Takeover [View article]
    It certainly broke out!
    Feb 20, 2015. 07:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Synthetic Biologics: A Speculative Small Cap Packed With Power [View article]
    Thanks for your insight. I agree completely, but it is important to focus on Copaxone sales and uptake of next gen Copaxone. Word on the street is that Teva is doing an incredible job converting patients to its next gen product. I have a large stake in SYN, but am worried about this looming possibility.
    Feb 18, 2015. 06:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Synthetic Biologics: A Speculative Small Cap Packed With Power [View article]
    I appreciate the article, thanks. Looking forward to following your research.

    It's important to note, however, that a Trimesta partnership should come shortly, and there is significant risk diversification given the multiple indications being targeted. It certainly isn't advisable to short SYN at this time, in my opinion, considering the positive news surrounding the Phase 1B study of the prophylactic treatment and the upcoming clinical and strategic events surrounding Trimesta for MS. Also, SYN has a history of conducting secondaries under favorable market conditions. In the event that a secondary is warranted, there shouldn't be much subsequent downside. In fact, we could see upside similar to the company's last offering.

    Another thing I think you should discuss in your next article is uptake of next-generation Copaxone and what you foresee with respect to Teva's legal efforts to prevent generic Copaxone from entering the market next Fall. This is obviously very important to SYN in terms of a potential partnership or buyout by Teva. Last time I checked, Teva had a favorable Supreme Court decision which deferred the final decision on a primary Copaxone patent back to a Federal judge who has previously favored the company in other Copaxone patent rulings. This is, of course, a risk to SYN shareholders (such as myself).

    Thanks again for your insight.
    Feb 17, 2015. 09:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ryerson: An Ugly Story All Around [View article]
    Thanks for the article. Really appreciate your insight.
    Feb 15, 2015. 08:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: A Dangerous Time To Be Short MannKind [View article]
    Update on MNKD: Afrezza hits the market. Stock has risen roughly $1/share since my warning about the dangers of shorting MNKD. GL all longs.
    Feb 4, 2015. 04:48 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Baxter Q4 2014 Earnings Impress, But Guidance Disappoints [View article]
    TF17,

    Thanks for the comment. You could very well be right in your risk assessment of BAX, and I think holding through the split is a viable plan. I simply question how positive both the split will be in terms of generating value, as well as earnings for Q1 2015 and onward. Until we see actual growth, Baxter is not going to have stellar earnings despite lowered expectations. But as I said below, Baxter should figure things out in time. In the short term, however, I do see the stock price possibly retreating to the mid to upper $60s, which poses a buying opportunity. The dividend is, of course, very desirable, but if you are also looking for significant share price appreciation, I would look at Teva.

    Teva just received approval to market generic Nexium, and is first to market a generic. According to my research, no other company is close to approval at this time. With Ranbaxy out of the running, Teva stands to acquire significant market share from Astra's blockbuster heart burn medication. In conjunction, the Supreme Court just ruled in favor of Teva in its patent battle for its MS drug Copaxone. Things are looking very good for the company at this juncture.
    Jan 30, 2015. 02:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Baxter Q4 2014 Earnings Impress, But Guidance Disappoints [View article]
    Thanks again!
    Jan 30, 2015. 01:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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