Trey Wasser

Geologix Explorations: Another Mexican Monster Miner?

You may be correct. Clearly GIX will not finance this project themselves. But, they have done everything right in developing the asset to date. They have not wasted shareholders equity like the lot you are casting them with. San Agustin may be a very attractive project for a major mining company looking for significant deposit for development in Mexico.

Crystallex’s Speculative Shine Begins to Tarnish

A message to KRY shareholders.
I happen to agree with Mr. Bane and appreciate his work. One reason why I started to publish my due diligence on SA was my frustration with message boards on individual stocks. The message boards have become nothing but a place for longs to hold hands and perform their cheerleading routines. Anyone who actually does due diligence, like really reading the SEC filings, does comparative valuations of similar companies, or otherwise reveals negative aspects of a stock, is labeled a basher (or worse) and discounted completely. I salute Mr. Bane for his work as he has obvioulsy done his homework and has expressed his opinion very diplomatically. Anyone who disagrees with him should suppport their view as concretely. Better yet, write your own report on why KRY is such a great value and have the guts to submit it for publication. I wrote a report gold.seekingalpha.com/... comparing GRZ and KRY. Just because you are long the stock is no reason to belittle Mr. Bane. You should appreciate someone pointing out the negatives, then do your own research. Anyone who believes that KRY is all about a PERMIT, is simply wrong. KRY is extremely overvalued for what they actually own (or don't own). The MOA has a real problem with no copper production. Leaving the copper in the waste rock will be an environmental nightmare. For this reason, I believe the permit is a long way off and the MOA will have to be renegotiated. Financing will be a real problem for a project in Venezuela that does not inlcude actual ownership of the reserves. There is a reason for the revolving door at KRY headquarters. Ask yourself, why is KRY selling at 4 to 5 times the enterprise value of GRZ? I believe, the answer is that many of those willing to buy or hold KRY at today's price are not doing their homework. Even worse, they are discounting those that do. Mr Bane and I may be wrong about KRY, but that is what makes markets.
Trey Wasser
III-D Capital

Why Gold Reserve, Not Crystallex, is the Better Bet in Venezuela

Fred
I mentioned the offering in the article.
III

Why Gold Reserve, Not Crystallex, is the Better Bet in Venezuela

Fred
The points I brought up are all correct.
1. The MOA does not include mining copper and thus the mine plan does not include processing copper. I do not know what they will do with it, I assume they will leave it in the waste rock. This could be a big problem.
2. The share structure at KRY is correct 250MM shares and $100MM in debt. I did not include warrants and options which I am sure would push the market cap higher.
I do not know who Bane is but the rest of the comments are all mine and are researched. I feel the stock is very over valued compared to GRZ.

Freeport McMoRan: Cheap Producer, Cheap Stock

James,
Important to note that 2006 results for PD were hampered by some very bad hedges. I believe that most of these rolled off last year and 2007 results will reflect current prices.
Trey Wasser

Is Apex Silver Mines a Buy?

Roland
You have clearly missed the fact that Apex has hedged more than half their zinc and nearly all lead production through 2011 at prices of $.48 for zinc and $.29 for lead. A small amount of silver has also been hedged at $7.3. These hedges are now over $1.2B under water. While the company has written off about half of the current losses, this will not help future cash flow. Meanwhile, cost for diesel, reagents, tires etc have risen dramatically. The lenders have rejected the recent SIL plan to increase price projections and are demanding an additional 10% of cash flow. Without a new plan approved, SIL is in default of their loan covenants. Sil is also being forced to deposit $91MM into their margin account carrying the hedges. The Sumitomo deal was supposed to help absorb 35% of the hedge losses, but accounting rules dont allow the losses to be transferred. I suspect, but have not confirmed, that Sumitomo is also on the recieving end of the $.48 zinc and $.29 lead. They invested to assure that SIL would stay afloat and get the mine into production. While lead is just a small by product, current losses on lead hedges alone are equal to the enitre loan ($200MM). This may very well go down as the most expensive loan in mining history.
The threat of a Bolivian tax increase to 30% is very real and would put additional pressure on the economics of the mine. A 30% tax would only put Bolivia in line with other South American tax regimes.
TA aside, SIL has some fundamental problems which you have totally ignored.
Trey Wasser- III-D Capital

Junior Mining Companies: Other People’s Money

I will look at Mirasol. I am hoping to find the next ARU. Or at least the next MAG.

Rackable Systems: A One Hit Wonder?

You are welcome. I have been following Rack since May when it was $53. Rack was my most profitable trading stock in 2006, both short and long.

Gold Stock Earnings to Shine in 2007

Sylvain,
In this article I only highlighted stocks on the BMO earnings list. I have never done a report on MNEAF, although I love the stock. It is a great story with a mine coming on line this year. They are partnered with Hochschild who operates 3 mines in Peru. They are a quality operator in South America. Rob McEwen owns about 30%. At todays price they are not really cheap in my matrix at $3500 and $400, but the San Jose mine is a "bootstrap" operation. Meaning they are getting the mine going for cash flow to explore the rest of the property. They have only explored about 5% of the known mineralization and have already found a third vein that will add to reserves. This is a very high grade area and I believe reserves will grow into the millions. They are also partnered with Xstrata on the Los Azules copper project. Early results are very encouraging.
MRB is another great story. Cash flow this year and partnered with Xstrata on El Campo. Not mentioned here as it was not on the BMO list.
I use $3000 and $200 because that is about the average of alot of companies and representaitve of recent buyouts of jr producers.

Gold Stock Earnings to Shine in 2007

I stand corrrected on the hedge price. It is probably a testiment to my point about Marone. They use the options and 2008 hedges to make it sound like they will sell copper above $3. Actually the 2007 call long options are at $1.67, so the 2007 hedges are increased by anything over that price. That is good input on the Brasilian mining. I dont think that many gold bugs will "cry foul" when Yamana starts producing copper at Chapada. Many gold mines, are actually copper mines. Chapada has a 2 year payback at $1 copper and with the hedges copper production is "monetized".
As for Hecla, I indicated it was a turn around story. I doubt you see any more dilution as long as they are profitable and sitting on $90MM cash. They are the low cost producer of silver. I think they probably do an acquisition this year. What they buy and what they pay will determine dilution. I have owned GBN on and off. They obviously did not fit into this report on profitable companies.

Galore Creek and Agua Rica - Two High Risk Mining Projects (Part 2)

Well, I am long NTO and feel Alumbera earnings, cash flow and $1/share cash support the current price. It was because of the Alumbera sale that I felt that Agua Rica might have been just as good a purchase. However, after thouroughly reviewing the FS, I am very disappointed. I dont believe Agua Rica will ever be developed

The Hostile Takeover of the NovaGold Empire

I have just started publishing my work. I am not just involved in the gold sector, although I have been overweighted in metals for some time. I have been doing alot of work on these large in-situ metal plays, trying to find the best risk/reward scenarios.