No, The Courts Didn't Just Overturn The RFS2 Mandate [View article]
"it probably reduces the amount of corn the US could give to the world's poor."
Humans generally don't consume feed corn, which is what is primarily used as feedstock for U.S. ethanol production (and the main reason the U.S. cattle industry is strongly anti-ethanol). And the U.S. certainly isn't in the habit of shipping steaks to the world's poor. Furthermore, the U.S. habit in the past of freely distributing its excess grain supplies to the developing world has suppressed agricultural production in those countries for decades, causing far more harm to food supplies there than corn ethanol production has.
The Coming Hangover For Corn Ethanol Investors [View article]
An interesting theory, albeit one that ignores many of the fundamentals of the RFS2. First, why would producers of biomass-based diesel try to qualify instead for the less valuable advanced biofuels category? Second, assuming that biomass-based producers did switch to the advanced biofuel category on a large scale, then they would very quickly swamp the RIN market for the latter category, causing values to fall sharply and negating any possible benefit. Finally, the volume of ethanol imported under the advanced biofuel category in 2012 (360 million gallons) is a fraction of biomass-based diesel production (1003 million gallons), so the effect of your theorized switch would be extremely marginal.
The Biodiesel Excise Tax Credit Is Good News For Refiners [View article]
Of course, your thesis rests on the assumption that soy-based biodiesel has a smaller carbon footprint than petroleum-based diesel. That is debatable, to put it mildly.
The Biodiesel Excise Tax Credit Is Good News For Refiners [View article]
As a concerned citizen, I consider the biobased diesel provisions in the fiscal cliff legislation to be horrendous policy - they're a step back in that they move the burden of paying for biofuels from refiners and fuel consumers to taxpayers. As an investor, however, I consider it to be a possible investment opportunity. Ultimately visitors to SA are far more interested in the latter than the former, thus the focus of this article (I'm not sure I could even get a pure policy discussion published here).
The Fiscal Cliff Resolution Could Give Solazyme A Boost [View article]
Thanks for the link. The minimum selling price for algal oil under its heterotrophic closed fermenter baseline scenario is $2.58/l, or $9.77/gal. From what I've seen in other studies, hydroprocessing of this algal oil to renewable diesel would result in a fuel price of roughly $11/gal.
The Fiscal Cliff Resolution Could Give Solazyme A Boost [View article]
I'm no microalgal fuel booster and I certainly don't mean to discredit the work of the NRC, but its finding on the sustainability of microalgae production has absolutely no bearing on the microalgae industry. None. Yes, it was written by scientists who are experts in their respective fields. However, Congress rarely incorporates NRC research into its legislation. As evidence, take the recent decision by Congress to create parity between lignocellulose and microalgae as advanced biofuel feedstocks. If that doesn't demonstrate the political irrelevance of the NRC, I'm not sure anything can.
This is important because Congress defines "sustainability" for the purposes of biofuels policy, and greenhouse gas emissions is the only factor that matters. NRC or no NRC, the U.S. government just took another big step in the direction of favoring microalgae-based fuels. There's your "handwriting on the government wall."
The Fiscal Cliff Resolution Could Give Solazyme A Boost [View article]
Thanks for the comment. You are correct that Solazyme employs a heterotrophic strain while the cited Davis et al./NREL paper considers an autotrophic strain. Unfortunately, the only techno-economic analysis of heterotrophic microalgae production I've been able to find (see below) is deeply flawed for U.S. consideration due to very optimistic price assumptions based on Columbia rather than the U.S. (for example, supervisor labor costs of $4/hour) and the lack of a comprehensive sensitivity analysis allowing us to adjust the results for U.S. conditions.
Now, if you can direct me to an independent analysis in the peer-reviewed literature that produces a different result on the basis of conservative assumptions, I'd be happy to review. Based on the current state of technology, however, I find it difficult to believe that heterotrophic strains can outperform autotrophic strains given the current high prices of the primary carbon sources.
The Fiscal Cliff Resolution Could Give Solazyme A Boost [View article]
From what I've read in the Propel deal, I've seen no evidence that the $4.32/gal price didn't constitute a production loss (I'm sure somebody will correct me if this is inaccurate, however) and I assume that it was a "proof-of-concept" demonstration (which shouldn't be discounted by any means). That said, I haven't seen any data on Solazyme's actual production costs. As I mentioned to Kevin (see above), the tax credit is worth $1 for every gallon that is blended, so one gallon of B20 blend should earn the blender $0.20 (assuming that the excise tax has first been matched).
The Fiscal Cliff Resolution Could Give Solazyme A Boost [View article]
Thanks for the comments and question, Kevin. Regarding the $1/gal biobased diesel excise tax credit, the value to the blender (and, by extension, the producer) can be easily calculated on a pure diesel basis. The blender would receive $1 for every gallon of biobased diesel blended with diesel, or 1 * 20% for a gallon of B20 blend. So for 5 gallons of B20, the blender would receive $1.
There's also the separate matter of the biobased diesel RFS2 category and the respective RINs. These will fall due to the revival of the excise tax credit, mostly (but not completely) offsetting the credit's value to producers.
No, The Courts Didn't Just Overturn The RFS2 Mandate [View article]
Humans generally don't consume feed corn, which is what is primarily used as feedstock for U.S. ethanol production (and the main reason the U.S. cattle industry is strongly anti-ethanol). And the U.S. certainly isn't in the habit of shipping steaks to the world's poor.
Furthermore, the U.S. habit in the past of freely distributing its excess grain supplies to the developing world has suppressed agricultural production in those countries for decades, causing far more harm to food supplies there than corn ethanol production has.
The Coming Hangover For Corn Ethanol Investors [View article]
The Coming Hangover For Corn Ethanol Investors [View article]
The Biodiesel Excise Tax Credit Is Good News For Refiners [View article]
The Coming Hangover For Corn Ethanol Investors [View article]
The Biodiesel Excise Tax Credit Is Good News For Refiners [View article]
http://seekingalpha.co...
The Biodiesel Excise Tax Credit Is Good News For Refiners [View article]
The Biodiesel Excise Tax Credit Is Good News For Refiners [View article]
The Fiscal Cliff Resolution Could Give Solazyme A Boost [View article]
The Fiscal Cliff Resolution Could Give Solazyme A Boost [View article]
This is important because Congress defines "sustainability" for the purposes of biofuels policy, and greenhouse gas emissions is the only factor that matters. NRC or no NRC, the U.S. government just took another big step in the direction of favoring microalgae-based fuels. There's your "handwriting on the government wall."
The Fiscal Cliff Resolution Could Give Solazyme A Boost [View article]
http://bit.ly/ZXJwv6
Now, if you can direct me to an independent analysis in the peer-reviewed literature that produces a different result on the basis of conservative assumptions, I'd be happy to review. Based on the current state of technology, however, I find it difficult to believe that heterotrophic strains can outperform autotrophic strains given the current high prices of the primary carbon sources.
The Fiscal Cliff Resolution Could Give Solazyme A Boost [View article]
The Fiscal Cliff Resolution Could Give Solazyme A Boost [View article]
The Fiscal Cliff Resolution Could Give Solazyme A Boost [View article]
There's also the separate matter of the biobased diesel RFS2 category and the respective RINs. These will fall due to the revival of the excise tax credit, mostly (but not completely) offsetting the credit's value to producers.
Don't Expect The EPA To Finish Off Thermal Coal [View article]