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Tristan R. Brown  

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  • Celanese: A Record Q1 Is No Guarantee Of A Record FY 2015 [View article]
    Thank you for the comment. I prefer to look for overreactions by the market before purchasing. So no, a 15% decline for no reason is unlikely, but a 20% decline when fair value only falls by 5% is what I would be looking for, for example.
    Jun 23, 2015. 09:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ashland: A Great And Underappreciated Chemicals Company With Overpriced Shares [View article]
    In retrospect, "undercovered" would have been a much better word to use there.
    Jun 20, 2015. 03:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Casey's General Stores: Even Well-Managed Companies Can Be Too Expensive [View article]
    Thanks for the comment. The difficulty in comparing CASY and MUSA in terms of EPS growth is that the latter's IPO was rather recent, preventing any clear trends from appearing in the data. MUSA is more reliant directly on fuel than CASY, especially given the latter's focus on prepared food. Indirectly, though, CASY's food sales still are affected by fuel prices, as seen by the increase in non-fuel margins that has coincided with the fall in fuel prices.
    Jun 18, 2015. 03:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Piedmont Natural Gas Keeps Its Dividend Streak Going, But Its Shares Look Expensive [View article]
    Thanks for the comment. I'd be willing to buy for up to $32 and certainly for under $30.
    Jun 5, 2015. 03:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The EPA Strikes A Compromise [View article]
    I've been kicking myself for being a textbook example of the Breakeven Fallacy in action when it came to the REG shares that I bought back in 2013, but the combination of higher crude prices and escalating biomass-based diesel RVOs could make it into a strong returner. Kudos to you, MWinMD, for predicting a few months ago that the EPA would ultimately end up making a decision favorable to biodiesel. I lost hope after its November 2013 proposal.
    Jun 2, 2015. 02:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amyris Q1: The Company's Goals Still Appear To Be Out Of Reach [View article]
    Visits to biotech labs tend to just depress me now since I inevitably compare the lab-scale yields with those being achieved on commercial-scale.

    Beer is no problem, I have yeast and bacteria working their way through several gallons of wort in my own basement biotech operation at any given point in time. I've found that the refreshment is necessary when you're shoveling 5 feet of snowfall in a single month.
    May 30, 2015. 12:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amyris Q1: The Company's Goals Still Appear To Be Out Of Reach [View article]
    Thanks for the comment, Maxx. Your detailed insight is always appreciated.
    May 28, 2015. 08:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amyris Q1: The Company's Goals Still Appear To Be Out Of Reach [View article]
    Thanks for the comment. I think it is better positioned now in the areas of product portfolio and operating cash flow than it was a year ago. Its balance sheet is much weaker, however, and that will be the most important factor if the company doesn't begin generating positive cash flow from operations soon.
    May 28, 2015. 01:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Renewable Energy Group's Operating Environment Improves, But Bad Luck And EPA Uncertainty Remain [View article]
    Thanks for the comment. It's not what I wanted to write, either.
    May 18, 2015. 06:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Murphy USA's (MUSA) CEO Andrew Clyde on Q1 2015 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    "Wine" was supposed to refer to RINs, the price of which will possibly crash in June (RINs are a regulatory creation and the EPA has proposed to reduce demand for them at that time, although it is anybody's guess what the final demand volume will be). Murphy's management gave a fuel margin range in its Q4 earnings call of $0.09-$0.13/gal for the whole of FY 2015, but the lower range wasn't really expected until the second half of the year as crude prices rebounded.
    May 5, 2015. 08:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PBF Energy Rebounds In Q1 Despite Poor Weather And High Regulatory Costs [View article]
    I can't speak for PBFX specifically, but logistics aren't facing the same headwinds as refiners.
    May 5, 2015. 06:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Murphy USA's (MUSA) CEO Andrew Clyde on Q1 2015 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    Fuel retail margins fell near the bottom of management's expected range for FY 2015.
    May 5, 2015. 06:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Casey's General Stores Shares Are Overvalued Despite Recent Record Earnings [View article]
    You'll have to show me where I wrote otherwise. The company's shares were overvalued in early April relative to its historical ratios, which is probably why they are down almost 10% in price since the article was published (For the record, I'm linking the decline to the shares being overvalued, not the article's publication). I would happily buy into Casey's were its shares undervalued since, as you point out, it is a very sound company. But "soundness" isn't my only investment criteria - the shares need to be undervalued relative to future earnings as well and that wasn't true for Casey's at the time of publication.
    May 5, 2015. 06:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gevo's 'Starving Time' Is Unlikely To End Well For Its Investors [View article]
    Thanks for the comment. I should point out, however, that this sentiment is very similar to that expressed by the company's longs in response to my bearish articles from 2013 (and, as you point out, they haven't fared well). I don't see how Gevo's situation has improved in the interim given that it is still struggling to produce its isobutanol with even a fraction of its capacity.
    Apr 2, 2015. 06:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gevo's 'Starving Time' Is Unlikely To End Well For Its Investors [View article]
    Under normal circumstances I would agree with you. In this case, however, the firm's post-IPO investors have incurred paper losses of 99% or more, and selling at this point would cause them to lose most or all of their remaining value to the transaction fee. Their individual risk-reward dynamic is quite different as a result.
    Apr 2, 2015. 06:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
243 Comments
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