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Tristan R. Brown  

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  • Unitil Is Becoming Overvalued On A Forward Basis [View article]
    Sorry for the confusion, I fat-fingered the ticker when I was typing it in. This has since been corrected - thanks for pointing it out.
    Nov 19, 2015. 05:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TransAlta: Environmental Regulations And Cheap Crude Make For A Perfect Storm [View article]
    Thanks for the comment. I hadn't considered the preferred shares, but that could be an interesting option.
    Oct 27, 2015. 09:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amyris Finally Turns A Corner And Not A Quarter Too Soon [View article]

    Thanks for the comments/questions. I think that the GAAP targets are more in reach than they've been in the past, although I would include the disclaimer that tremendous uncertainty is involved and these could be easily missed due to unexpected downtime or a similar event. As you point out, however, the company does finally seem to have visibility on earnings growth moving forward with all of the new products that it is bringing online.

    I like the direct-to-consumer strategy in the short-term but I have to question its viability in the longer-term, especially at scale. As you point out, there aren't many examples of the strategy in practice, and I have to think that there is a reason for that. Amyris simply doesn't have the networks in place to connect with the large number of customers that it hopes to see in the future.
    Sep 20, 2015. 01:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Plains Focuses On The Long Term In The Face Of Short-Term Volatility [View article]
    A gallon of ethanol has roughly 2/3rds the energy content of a gallon of gasoline due to its oxygen content. Energy-equivalency looks at price on an energy basis rather than volumetric basis to account for this difference. Ethanol is almost always cheaper than gasoline on a volumetric basis despite being more expensive on an energy basis.
    Aug 20, 2015. 10:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The EPA Strikes A Compromise [View article]
    All ethanol makers are somewhat affected. PEIX's movements seem to be especially affected, however, likely due to its comparatively poor margins.
    Jul 23, 2015. 07:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • PNM Resources: Potential Headwinds Diminish A Compelling Value Argument [View article]
    Thanks for the comment. I ultimately believe that optimism regarding the recent SCOTUS decision is overblown since the EPA will just redo its original analysis using the full criteria. While it is true that this could push the rule's revisions beyond the 2016 POTUS election, there is too much uncertainty there to say conclusively that it will benefit coal miners and coal-fired utilities.
    Jul 1, 2015. 03:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Celanese: A Record Q1 Is No Guarantee Of A Record FY 2015 [View article]
    Thank you for the comment. I prefer to look for overreactions by the market before purchasing. So no, a 15% decline for no reason is unlikely, but a 20% decline when fair value only falls by 5% is what I would be looking for, for example.
    Jun 23, 2015. 09:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ashland: A Great And Underappreciated Chemicals Company With Overpriced Shares [View article]
    In retrospect, "undercovered" would have been a much better word to use there.
    Jun 20, 2015. 03:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Casey's General Stores: Even Well-Managed Companies Can Be Too Expensive [View article]
    Thanks for the comment. The difficulty in comparing CASY and MUSA in terms of EPS growth is that the latter's IPO was rather recent, preventing any clear trends from appearing in the data. MUSA is more reliant directly on fuel than CASY, especially given the latter's focus on prepared food. Indirectly, though, CASY's food sales still are affected by fuel prices, as seen by the increase in non-fuel margins that has coincided with the fall in fuel prices.
    Jun 18, 2015. 03:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Piedmont Natural Gas Keeps Its Dividend Streak Going, But Its Shares Look Expensive [View article]
    Thanks for the comment. I'd be willing to buy for up to $32 and certainly for under $30.
    Jun 5, 2015. 03:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The EPA Strikes A Compromise [View article]
    I've been kicking myself for being a textbook example of the Breakeven Fallacy in action when it came to the REG shares that I bought back in 2013, but the combination of higher crude prices and escalating biomass-based diesel RVOs could make it into a strong returner. Kudos to you, MWinMD, for predicting a few months ago that the EPA would ultimately end up making a decision favorable to biodiesel. I lost hope after its November 2013 proposal.
    Jun 2, 2015. 02:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amyris Q1: The Company's Goals Still Appear To Be Out Of Reach [View article]
    Visits to biotech labs tend to just depress me now since I inevitably compare the lab-scale yields with those being achieved on commercial-scale.

    Beer is no problem, I have yeast and bacteria working their way through several gallons of wort in my own basement biotech operation at any given point in time. I've found that the refreshment is necessary when you're shoveling 5 feet of snowfall in a single month.
    May 30, 2015. 12:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amyris Q1: The Company's Goals Still Appear To Be Out Of Reach [View article]
    Thanks for the comment, Maxx. Your detailed insight is always appreciated.
    May 28, 2015. 08:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amyris Q1: The Company's Goals Still Appear To Be Out Of Reach [View article]
    Thanks for the comment. I think it is better positioned now in the areas of product portfolio and operating cash flow than it was a year ago. Its balance sheet is much weaker, however, and that will be the most important factor if the company doesn't begin generating positive cash flow from operations soon.
    May 28, 2015. 01:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Renewable Energy Group's Operating Environment Improves, But Bad Luck And EPA Uncertainty Remain [View article]
    Thanks for the comment. It's not what I wanted to write, either.
    May 18, 2015. 06:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment