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Troy Jensen  

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  • Why Rental Housing Is In Danger Of Collapsing [View article]
    Couldn't disagree more...that is, if we are both after the same macroeconomic goal, which for me is to accelerate U.S. economic growth to a 4% annual growth in GDP being the minimum acceptable growth rate.

    Lenders need to evaluate their standards all right...and they need to LOOSEN lending standards, not go any more draconian than the already have since the inevitable over-reactivate tightening of lending standards from late 2007 to 2010.

    I'm not suggesting we go back to partying like it's 2005! But there is no question home lending standards tightened up way too far in a typical overtly reactive way they would anyway - Behavioral Finance 101. But with hoards of cash and investors seeking yield, there are so many things both government and lenders could do to resuscitate the private secondary markets for MBS's and provide that much needed liquidity and further ability for lenders to begin extended their risk profile by slowly and steadily loosening their lending standards. With a reborn private market for MBS's, CDO's and other derivatives that would obviously be this time around far more transparent, less complex and'd create a thriving market where banks could lay off highly-rated higher-risk (and hence, higher-yield!) MBS's...

    So banks should reevaluate their lending practices with the goal of extending more lending for home mortgages and other consumer lending products. Unlocking the still way too conservative consumer lending markets is job #1 that needs to be done collectively to help America achieve an annual GDP growth rate of 4% minimum.
    Oct 2, 2015. 07:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Should You Dump JPMorgan Chase Because Of Its China Exposure? [View article]
    Gotta roll with you there man. Good catch. If a global recession comes to the United States emerging markets and China will be a nightmare at that point. No financial services sector shares are gonna see any upside for a long time! Especially the multinationals.
    Sep 24, 2015. 02:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Should You Dump JPMorgan Chase Because Of Its China Exposure? [View article]
    Boilertender I just have to your advise here is to sell JPM ASAP, take those proceeds, and run to your nearest bank and put those proceeds in a savings account earning nada. Or am I tired from my flight and missing something? And the well-thought strategic reasoning is because that is where the capital "will be safe?"

    Huh. Just a note, as a US resident should I, along with our largest bank's customers, all do the same? That bank, as I'm sure you know, is Chase. As in JP Morgan Chase & Co.

    I'm done. Please if you're going to comment contribute something relevant and, more importantly, meaningful and intelligent. Again, not trying to be an ass here but why type those words bro?

    To end on a good reply to what I believe your strategic call on JPM share price related to their exposure to China, not one I would endorse or in fact give to my worst enemy! The bottom line is no one truly knows how bad it is in China and we don't know if these boys in the Politburo have really mastered the fine art of Capitalism. Their moves in the Financial Markets this month have me leaning towards there may be a scary lack of knowledge and execution ability to deal with these multiple asset and debt bubbles.

    But that is an authoritative closed non-transparent communist nation in the end. Perhaps they can "paper over this" - this will be extremely interesting as it unfolds.
    Sep 24, 2015. 02:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Should You Dump JPMorgan Chase Because Of Its China Exposure? [View article]
    FIRST - Outside of TimmiesRegular, the two comments after make me shake my head. I mean, thanks not only for your stunning and insightful comments relevant to the article, but kudos as well "mydogmoe" and "Boilertender" on your impressive writing skills.

    Sorry - I just would love to eliminate the idiots, useless idiots, the overtly obvious scoundrels, and finally the a**holes who just hate on an article for giggles. We are here to communicate, to learn and contribute and make money. "mydogmoe"?? Really that's your username? Please both of you and the untold others like you, just go find another site. You can sit in your studio apartments and trailer homes in God only knows where and have fun on like Motley Fool. Or go cut lawns or bag groceries. Might get some positive cash flow going. Remember to utilize English literary skills on the applications for employment fellas. Capitals letters to start?

    OK DONE. Now, on to the actual article! ;)

    Well done, short and to the point. I do think - I very strongly believe, to be as clear as I can be - that JPM is exposed in China at bigger numbers than are contained in the article. No fault of the authors, but as my China Prop trading desk and analysts have dug deeper and deeper frankly all the large "Bulge Bracket" boys on Wall Street are more exposed than first glance. That said, JPM is still strategically by far the best positioned despite the enormous size...they are an enormous institution. Relevancy matters. So good call nonetheless on JPM and again good article.

    Now looking at our brothers in The City of London, I'd be far more apt to say go risk ON now for those most exposed. There are worse transparency issues and obviously the UK doesn't have the type of backstop we have with the US players. I the end...we got The Fed.

    I'm planning on putting out an article next week on the UK banks and - even worse - several EU banks that are really gonna get hammered when these multiple ginormous bubbles burst in China.

    Cheers to...well the first commenter. ;) Let's clean it up and make some money - if you wanna play go somewhere else.
    Sep 24, 2015. 02:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Changing Landscape For Electric Utilities [View article]
    Excellent article. You've laid out with examples the very logical case for the electric utilities to work with, and not against, distributed energy providers. However, that said, I know for a fact some of the largest most influential electric utilities are going to fight this as far as they can take it. So distributed energy providers - in my case this would be the financing we have helped provide end-users of dozens of Residential Solar providers via leases and PPAs - and their consumer end user financing partners need to be prepared for those fights. I advocate not for retreat - merely be strategically ready for what will be the battle in SOME markets with SOME utilities that lie ahead....
    Sep 6, 2015. 10:08 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Capital Is Fleeing China: The Crushing Costs Of Systemic Corruption [View article]
    Excellent article my man. Our firm 28 months ago began one of the largest, longest, most expensive and by far most frustrating report on the Chinese Economy. Specifically I wanted a 3-5-10 year detailed predictive report with several high-probability alternative POVs for each timeframe. Eventually we partnered with JPM, Bloomberg and a Chinese Analyst who by our agreement will remain anonymous (he was extremely dialed in, and government, still is). The results after 17 months were frightening enough to me (and anyone who knows how we roll knows the last thing my firms will ever be called is RISK ADVERSE...but the other term you'll never hear us called is STUPID IN THE FACE OF A REALITY THAT POINTS TO AN INEVITABLE VERY BAD ENDING ON MULTIPLE LEVELS!) to pull out of China.

    We didn't just aggressively reduce our then sizable exposure in China, a lot of which was in Clean Technology manufacturing investments that did for years pay off extremely well. No one is truly grasping and publicly saying what we have on our hands in unmitigated disaster coming.

    Keep up the great writing and insights!!
    Sep 4, 2015. 07:03 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SunEdison +7.9%; CEO promises YieldCo cash flows, defends Vivint deal [View news story]
    Reading above comments. All make very valid points. A few with humor. But another POV from someone who knows a bit about the segment's financials (my company has a substantial portfolio of solar financing; say what you will I get offers on that SOB daily, it's done extremely well). Where will the money come from? Why is everyone assuming a true bear market is inevitable and interest rates are headed to the Stratosphere and etc etc??? I hear this year after year. The Fed isn't touching rates. Flight-to-safety means we may see UST-10 years go below 2% yields very soon. Markets will calm. And cheap debt still has at minimum a year more to go. So it's simple: they hit the high yield boys for the needed funding. Hey I may be completely wrong here! I'll be the first to call myself out...but I've got a nearly 7-year stretch of 30%+ IRRs under my belt. So I think I might know something here.

    Then again honestly maybe I've been one lucky bastard! :) Just some thoughts - no matter what here's wishing all of our pain be champagne! (Kanye West) ;)
    Sep 3, 2015. 02:43 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Recent M&A Activity Could Hint At Something Big In The Works [View article]
    Insightful analysis, putting aside the snide smartass comment above. I don't know what kitty cat man's AUM is but ours is substantive, and I forwarded your article to my team. Great job.
    Sep 3, 2015. 01:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google's Presence In PCs Delivers A Boost To Internet Adoption In Emerging Markets [View article]
    Alex, cheers mate. I could NEVER in the face of complete stupidity and ignorance even FEIGN your kind comment in reply. You are a true gentleman, an intelligent disseminator of very thoughtful market analysis.

    Keep up the great work and I'll leave you with a favorite line of mine: If I DON'T HAVE MY HATERS...something is critically off in my strategy or communication. That isn't humor - I mean it. You're doing great man. Not a word of the dissenters above made much sense...but we will find out. ;)

    My personality would trend to the extremes. To say the least. ;)

    BUT THEN AGAIN - so does my personal and company's net worth, so...Hi Haters, love you all! ;)
    Aug 29, 2015. 04:46 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Do Not Blame China For Your Missed Opportunity To Reduce Risk [View article]
    Kudos man, good call...we got completely out of China just over a year ago. And I've taken some BLEEP for it. Am I a genius today? Damn right! ;) Not at all...I was simply doing a lot of business there and didn't like what I saw as far as boots on the ground observations. Add that with the transparency issues in the markets...we bounced. I do have more respect for your timing! ;) Keep up the good work...
    Aug 26, 2015. 12:56 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Debt Repurchase Is A Better Investment Than Drilling [View article]
    Fantastic article Elephant Analytics! As someone holding that debt it's a message we've been trying to quietly get across. Well thought out, well written, concise and communicates your POV beautifully. Keep up the great work!!
    Aug 26, 2015. 12:50 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Apple Burst The Netflix Bubble? [View article]
    What's your basis for declaring Apple Music a failure? I'm not suggesting you're wrong. I'd simply like to see the metrics. There's a LOT of BS out there as far as Apple Music and it's "success or failure" - I mean let's be intelligent and honest here, it's still FAR too early to suggest anything regarding the performance of Apple Music. Hit me back with the data, I'm legitimately interested in seeing the metrics...
    Aug 12, 2015. 11:48 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.S. Is Still The Best Place To Put Your Money [View article]
    Your analysis is spot on. I would agree that the old rules simply do not apply here. To use a different metaphor than yours, using historical data to analyze a totally different and new environment is akin to utilizing the 1967 Green Bay Packers playbook in the season opener in 2015. Totally irrelevant...anyway, EXCELLENT job, look forward to more of your articles!
    Aug 12, 2015. 11:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Most Quantitative Investing And Trading Systems Fail [View article]
    Excellent post...
    Aug 6, 2015. 10:26 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Connecting The Dots: Corporate America's Millstone Of Too Much Cash [View article]
    Just a thought here, but would not a sixth way to strategically deploy corporate capital reserves be Research & Development? Definitely New Economy corporations in technology manufacturing like Apple, Google, Tesla, or even new media companies (Netflix; Amazon), that R&D investment would come in the form of new Content Creation & Distribution/Syndication solutions.

    Just food for thought, but I agree with your overall premise!
    Apr 23, 2015. 10:27 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment