Seeking Alpha

Tufenk's  Instablog

Send Message
Doing The Research Gives You The Answers. Looking for Disruptive Technology And Comeback Stories. Finding Overhyped Situations.
My blog:
View Tufenk's Instablogs on:
  • Thorsten Heins Speak In Waterloo, Our Takeaway

    Listening to the conference call live from Waterloo Canada for the BlackBerry (NASDAQ:BBRY) became more insightful after speaking with an expert on linguistics and how speech varies from country to country. More on this later. First we want to address the current shorts outstanding in BBRY shares and the negative rebate borrow rate-NRBR- because today after the market close, NASDAQ will report short interest numbers for the end of June. We will know very soon how much of the recent selling of BBRY shares stems from shorts adding to their position. As of last week, the NRBR was 11.5% annual. We will have an update in our next article after the short report is published by Nasdaq.

    While listening -we encourage you to listen-to BBRY CEO Thorsten Heins give his presentation, we heard a thumping noise when he had the ever so slight inclination in his voice. He is not an emotional speaker by any stretch of the imagination. However, the thumping seems to be his hand pounding against the podium from which he was speaking.

    (click to enlarge)We are told by Europeans that the hand pounding or thumping is a sign of extreme conviction and therefore must conclude Thorsten meant what he said sincerely. We think its a good start, but he must move much more quickly with regards to transparency. He is too old school and is not embracing the world he himself describes as the connection of all things. From his remarks:

    "...the software update management for automotive facilitates machine-to-machine communication directly between the automaker and the vehicle. It allows the automaker to easily provide software updates to the car and to the client using our infrastructure that is already globally deployed.

    And we're using it today to update millions of BlackBerry out there. We can use this to update every mobile computing endpoints out there, be it a car, be it a smartphone, be it a telemetry element, be it something in healthcare, this is what the network can do. ..."

    But with all do respect, these words are not enough to squelch the critics who accuse BBRY of hiding behind their numbers regarding their rollout. The quote by Winston Churchill, "There is nothing to fear but fear itself" is our message to Thorsten: Be upfront and realtime about sales. Announce them on Twitter or BBM. Make the shorts by a Z or Q10 to get the blow by blow on how sales are doing. Make transparency a marketing tool and not a distraction from what your goals are. We are one of the few SA authors who still believe in BlackBerry. Show the world you are not afraid of the truth.

    Disclosure: I am long BBRY.

    Tags: BBRY
    Jul 10 1:50 PM | Link | 10 Comments
  • BlackBerry: Shorts, Jones Beach And The Rolling Stones

    The trade for the shorts in BlackBerry (NASDAQ:BBRY) seems to be shaping up as if the Stones were bringing their concert tour to Jones beach:

    And depending on your point of view, it's getting either better or worse. The latest Nasdaq short interest update shows:

    So the shorts are getting more confident of a BBRY disaster as they pile into the trade as if the Rolling Stones were giving a free concert at the Beach. The problem with Jones beach after any show is the traffic going home.

    Our position on the long side in BBRY is counting on this type of a traffic jam when the shorts realize that BBRY is here to stay. With 182 million shares short in the US and 10 million more short in Canada and the volume in summer trading is starting to wane, the trick for the shorts is how to unwind their crowded trade.

    According to Zolmax, Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) reiterated its $17 price target as the Q10 is holding its own in sales as Verizon (NYSE:VZ) starts to promote it on it's FIOS fiber optic broadband and cable television service in the territories its available. According to the article:

    Seventeen investment analysts have rated the stock with a sell rating, eighteen have given a hold rating, nine have issued a buy rating and one has issued a strong buy rating to the stock. The stock presently has an average rating of "Hold" and an average price target of $12.57.

    We know there are many views on BBRY. But the enormous publicity this name gets from all the controversy probably is worth up to $1 per share in PR. In addition, we have seen many argue that part of their sales is from refilling their marketing channel with the newer BB10 phones and that inventory is starting to build. But the good news is that those phones, just like the earlier BB7 phones will sell if prices drop and that is still profitable for BBRY as we saw cash pile in when they priced their BB7 inventory to move. Customer count goes up, and BBRY has new services it's working on to monetize these new customers. Our recommendation is to believe the comeback story is in full stride, and BBRY is a winner.

    Our parting suggestion to shorts is we think they should take a drive out to Jones Beach to watch a show and make sure you stay for the traffic jam that follows. It may give you a preview of what's on the horizon. Nobody likes a crowded trade when it turns against you.

    Disclosure: I am long BBRY. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

    Tags: GS, VZ, BBRY, long-ideas
    Jun 26 10:44 AM | Link | 2 Comments
  • DISH Sprint Softbank Clearwire Story Over? Whatever: Buy NIHD And SITO

    From SA Today:

    SoftBank (OTCPK:SFTBF) CEO Masayoshi Son has forecast that his company's $21.6B acquisition of...


    • Friday, June 21, 3:07 AM ET
      SoftBank (OTCPK:SFTBF) CEO Masayoshi Son has forecast that his company's $21.6B acquisition of Sprint (NYSE:S) should achieve savings of ¥200B ($2B) a year over the next four years. The deal should be completed early next month, barring a late twist involving Dish (NASDAQ:DISH) or regulatory problems, Son said at a shareholders meeting. He acknowledged that SoftBank considered buying T-Mobile (NYSE:TMUS) as an alternative to Sprint.

    We think Sprint, DISH and CLWR are close to fully valued and do not represent significant upside from their current share prices in the current mobile computing push. We believe the under-loved wireless carrier NII Holdings (NASDAQ:NIHD) holds valuable licensed spectrum in growth markets and therefore has tremendous upside potential. We see upside in shares of the names that will participate regardless of who wins the most customers. Our up and comer pick Single Touch (OTCQB:SITO) has a compelling mobile advertising business and are expanding their reach through AT&T (NYSE:T) as its conduit to deliver sponsored SMS text messages. In addition, they have a very powerful patent portfolio which is of significant strategic value to anyone in the mobile advertising and video streaming space, including DISH and any of the well healed CLWR shareholders, present, past or future.

    From SA Yesterday:

    AT&T (T) considered buying up to a 29.9% stake in Telefonica (NYSE:TEF) before the Spanish...


    • Thursday, June 20, 4:37 PM ET
      AT&T (T) considered buying up to a 29.9% stake in Telefonica (TEF) before the Spanish government said no, has mulled buying France Telecom (FTE)/Deutsche Telekom's (OTCQX:DTEGY) Everything Everywhere U.K. mobile JV and Telefonica's O2 U.K. unit or Latin American ops, and "remains interested" in Vodafone (NASDAQ:VOD) assets,Bloomberg reports. A merger with Telefonica has also been explored, even though AT&T's ties with America Movil (NYSE:AMX) would complicate matters. Meanwhile, the FT reports CEO Randall Stephenson is meeting with EC telecom regulator Neelie Kroes. It safe to assume Ma Bell is serious about expanding abroad in order to offset slumping U.S. growth. (previous)

    Disclosure: I am long NIHD, OTCQB:SITO.

    Tags: DISH, S, S, NIHD, SITO, T
    Jun 21 6:48 AM | Link | 3 Comments
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers


More »

Latest Comments

Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.