Turley Muller

Recession Presents Challenge to Apple's Mac That Competes on Features, Not Price

Thanks man, I am aware, brevity is my nemesis. I get a lot of ideas swirling in my head and I sometimes don't realize I'm running over the same ground. PED at Fortune told me the same thing.

I think my solution is to break my posts up into single ideas instead of trying to tackle more in one sitting, that's where I lose focus. Plus, a few people that really enjoy my work have voiced to me that they wish I write more often. So, I hope to post more of less.

Jmmx, your idea of printing it out first is valuable. I noticed already that I lose sight trying to edit "on screen" due to the loss of vision as I scroll down through the text. Great suggestion, thanks, I hope to improve. I know you read most of my work, I appreciate your attention.




On Dec 22 03:49 AM jmmx wrote:

> Pretty good article, but very repetitious, I suggest you print it
> out and read it through a couple of times before posting.
>
> Regards.

Blogs, Profanity and Editorial Integrity

@ Legal Obsever,

You raise a very interesting point.

I am not a legal expert, but I would surmise that SA hasn't violated the TOU with the profanity issue.

"We respectfully ask that you not engage in. ..... profanity....at their discretion, SA editors MAY (not shall) remove comments that voilate these standards. " This seems to be more of an guideline of SA usage expectations, or quality standards, not a explicit agreement .

In the online rules of contduct section, SA defines what users AGREE to, which doesn't include profanity. It does mention vulgar and obscene, which deal more with explcit sexual content. My interpretation is that it's not binding users to an agreement not to use profanitity.

If the TOU explicited stated that the user agrees to not use profanity, (as it does for vulgar and obscene), then I might think one could make a strong case that SA had violated its TOU.

The TOU says SA reserves the right for its editors to decide (discretion) if material is unfit for publication. If so, SA may, or has permission, to remove content. So, SA might do remove something it thinks fails to meet standards, but doesn't state it shall or must, hence will remove such violations in every instance.

Obviously, SA's policy has been that not any/every usage of profanity conflicts with standards of professionalism . However, the concept of professionalism and "high standards" are quite subject to intrepretation, and different among individuals. This is why Mr. Weinstein is raising this issue. SA has't explicitly stated what is considered offensive/profane for the highly subjective. Since SA goes to exetreme lengths to cater to its readers, the editor in chief wants to obtain a consensus opinion of its readers to better define what the quality standards should be.

This is just my opinion, and for the legality aspect, I know nothing about contract law. But interesting enough

Apple: Calculating Q4 Gross Margin for the iPhone

Grouch,
Good catch- that's a typo in the equation I gave- should be .29 not .21 (.29 + .71 = 1)

The tables have the actual match underneath them- I just took screen shots, but I was careless, I guess, typing out my explanation.

I'll email my editor to see if I can't get that corrected.

Thanks for pointing that out.

-Turley


On Nov 28 05:10 PM Grouch wrote:

> Great job.
> In your first of three equations the article gives a .21 factor where
> the table it is derived shows it should be .29. Which did you use
> in your calculation? Typo or calculation error?

Will the iPhone Be Taken by Storm?

On Nov 26 07:11 PM TimboM wrote:

> Good One lcpcp - you'll need that removable battery for when your
> BlackBerry running multiple applications freezes and that's the only
> way to restart it. ..........

Timbo- LOL- exactly! I remember having to do that.

A lot! It's similar to when I have to rip the power cord out of the wall to reboot my PC after it freezes up so hard that hitting cmd-alt-del or holding the power button in does nothing.

Why Is the YouTube User Experience So Poor?

"Yet regularly, I have to wait 20-30 seconds for a clip to buffer" 20-30 seconds? Wow, that sucks. I never have to wait more than 5 seconds, usually just 2-3. That's pretty strange, but then again your post about YouTube problems generates the highest traffic.

Is Apple More Undervalued Than Other Tech Sector Stocks?

Andy's statement about the deferred revenue being recognized in 09 is correct. Zaky says CURRENT deferred revenue. "Current" means less than a year.

The iPhone revenue is recognized over 24 months, yet the portion that will be recognized within the next year is recorded in "Current" and the other portion is recorded in non-current .

On Nov 04 03:44 PM anon99 wrote:

> A couple of points:
>
> First off the deffered revenue is recognized over 24 months, not
> 12 months. So it will be recognized between now till Oct 2010(not
> till 2009 as Andy has posted). Also it isn;t a straightforward calculation
> wherein you can take the 3bil and assign it to 2009 and 2010.

Is Paul Krugman Serious? Sadly, Yes.

Right... read where he said "let's get Congress to fix this" Yeah, like the did with social security reform, immigration, energy bill.... almost blew the rescue bill.

I complete confidence that Congress would agree and not fight over which district the government should waste our money in. That's because those are the most selfless, in-touch with reality people alive. We're so lucky to have them as our leaders!

RIM Faces a Critical Month As Apple Gets Tough

Timbo- $400 for each iPhone ? where are you getting that number? It's more like $640-$650 per iPhone


On Nov 01 08:34 AM TimboM wrote:

> One more thing....Apple will sell 13-14 milion iPhones in the 2008
> calendar year, 18 months after introduction of its first. They receive
> about $400 revenue for each. That means that they have built a $5-6
> billion smartphone business from the ground in less than 2 years.
>
>
> RIMM has been in the smartphone business for 5+ years and has sold
> more than 100 million phones Their fiscal year-ending 1-Mar-08 revenue?
> $6 billion.
>
> (For the purposes of revenue comparison I'm treating the Apple revenue
> in a a non-GAAP fashion to compare equally with RIMM).
>
> Free cash flow for RIMM $1.2 billion for year ending 1-Mar-2008.
>
>
> Free cash flow for smartphone portion of Apple? If you take the $3.8
> billion in Apple cashflow for Q4'08, you may derive an operating
> cashflow associated with the iPhone of $2.5 billion. If you assume
> conservatively that CapEx for smartphone division was $500 million,
> then the free cash flow is $2 billion, after 18 months of this division's
> existence.
>
> Furthermore, RIMM is getting nowhere near $400 for each phone (subsidized
> or unsubsidized) from carriers, and their past model of selling unsubsidized
> phones will most definitely not stand up to fierce and growing smartphone
> competition.
>
> Just think about where Apple will be in 2 years if these growth rates
> continue. They can still add features to a new model phone - a keyboard
> for those who want it, etc. Because their market penetration is so
> low already, look at the remaining potential.
>
> If I were an executive at RIMM these numbers would keep me awake
> at night, especially with a stock price chopped by 65%, which is
> just enough to make Microsoft come sniffing around.
>
> Is there room for both Apple and RIMM? Of course. Will RIMM look
> pretty in 2 years? I don't think so. Think Palm, SonyEricsson, Motorola,
> Borland, Sun Microsystems, etc.. I know that RIMM looks really great
> over the past few years, and that during that time it was the market
> maker. But if you squint you can see the future, and it ain't pretty.

Everything You Need to Know About the Fed's Rate Cuts

The reason mortgage rates have increased is due to the increase in interest rate volatility. A mortgage is not just a bond but a option as well. Volatility increases the value to the borrower and decreases value to the investor. Interest rates fall, borrowers refinance into a lower rate mortgage and pay off the outstanding balance. This prepayment risk reduces value of mortgage securities, thus higher interest rate is needed to offset the risk that the "option" will move in the money and the borrow will exercise it.

Apple's FY09 Gross Margin Expectations Are Too Low

Yeah, my bad- The CAD has weakened against the USD, I had it backwards. I read that Apple priced the new MacBooks in EUR/GBP higher than US prices on a forex basis, thus Apple prices in a cushion for currency fluctuation then hedges as well.

Apple's FY09 Gross Margin Expectations Are Too Low

With regards to currency:

1) Apple hedges forex
2) Where hedges come up short it changes pricing
3) Some currencies have strengthened against the dollar - CAD, JPY, as some have weakened - EUR.

On net, probably not a terribly huge factor.

Apple Earnings Wrapup

The IMEI based estimates of 7.6M weren't for the quarter, but for the 2nd week of Oct when we wrote the article. My Q4 estimate was 6.8M.

Jobs Has Sold His 10 Million iPhones

iPhone sales weren't t below my estimate-6.8M for Q4 end 9/27

apple20.blogs.fortune..../

But as I had predicted, Apple surpassed 10M not long after

financial-alchemist.bl...

Apple's 'Real' Earnings: Up Almost 125%

Apple still gets the revenue on outstanding 2.5G contracts still in place. 3G phone doesn't have the revenue sharing, instead the upfront subsidy. I bet the 2.5G contracts are dwindling away fast. Most everyone I know who had a legacy iPhone bought a new 3G so those contracts were replaced with the non-sharing revenue model of the upfront subsidy. There were probably only 50% of 2.5G phones that were on an authorized carrier network. (3M) My guess is that there probably 1.5 - 1.75 M that haven't upgraded yet.

Apple's Surprising Jump After Bleak Guidance

The stock did get crushed - from 160-70 to below $100, that low guidance was priced in weeks ahead of the call. Guidance has been such a major focus the previous few quarters, that some investors didn't want to be long going into the call unless stock was way oversold and dirt cheap (which it was this time)