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  • 7 Fad Stocks To Avoid In 2012 [View article]
    Soda is cheaper than buying coke. Also the PE of 23 is not accurate. earnings are in euro. If you adjust TTM earnings by multiplying the euro by 1.3 the PE is much lower than 23. If you are talking dollars, looking at other companies that report in dollars, you should compared apples to apples so saying PE is 23 is not fair and or accurate.

    Good artcile overall and I like your picks except SODA
    Dec 27 09:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SodaStream, An Investment Not A Trade [View article]
    You're missing the point. The CEO did guide higher and he is very conservative. He has already said he doesn't like raise the bar and guide higher. This stock IS NOT about guidance from the CEO. He like to be like Apple and crush estimates. The 10% implied decline is so far off and irrelevent. Q4 will beat the $.57 EPS (or .42 euro) in Q3. Ther is no 70% declining sales. You are making assumptions off of numbers that are not credible and coming from nowhere. Hope that helps. I don't want to argue, Q3 spoke for themselves and Q4 will as well. If you disagree that is fine, but let the quarter do the talking and then if they miss you can come back and say i told you so.
    Nov 15 10:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SodaStream, An Investment Not A Trade [View article]
    How they guide is irrelevant in the long run. The stock price will correct to the actual earnings results soon enough. The most recent CC was not downbeat at all. The last one was not even down beat they just would not guide higher so the Street got all upset and sold off. They were very positive this time around regarding Japan, mroe doors in the U.S. the holidays, acceptance of their product in the Americas, etc.
    Nov 14 03:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SodaStream, An Investment Not A Trade [View article]
    Don't worry about the guidance. Last year in a call the CEO specifically noted how he likes to "be like Apple" and guide conservative and then kill street estimates. This was obvioulsy the case this quarter. He isn't going to come out and make extremely bullish statements or promises, the earnings will speak for itself. Distribution has grown dramatically over the past year and Q4 is going to crush it; don't get caught up in "guidance" as if Dan's guidance is comparable to the average street CEO's guidance. The forecasts are irrelevent. Don't be shocked if analysts come out in the next month or two and significantly raise estimates for 2011, Q4, and even 2012.
    Nov 14 08:01 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why SodaStream Will Rip In The Next 4 Months [View article]
    Soda crushed estimates and they will do so again in Q4. Stock finished around $36 or about 6% up despite the market crashing so not too bad. It will continue to run up over the next few months as people wake up and realize this thing is legit and will sell.

    Concerning the calls, Cramer is clown. That aside consumables grew, they just didn't grow at the same rate that soda makers did. This is not worrisome because the majority people have to buy the soda maker before they load up on consumables and most makers come with a bunch of trial packets so you dont have to buy consumables right away. The CO2 slowdown in America is not concerning either. CO2 sales hit a record level but also did not accelerate as fast. The reason that this is not a concern is becuase they have been steady in Europe where CO2 is actually sold in stores. Now CO2 will be sold in Macy's making it easier to buy. Before it was a PIA which is why it wasn't bought as much.

    I wrote an aritcle before this one called the real risk with sodastream. the real risk being Europe crashing. Looks like both are happening at the same time (europe crashing and SODA reporting great earnings)
    Nov 9 04:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The 'Good News' Rally Doesn't Make Sense [View article]
    I do offer solutions go to my blog and read the 4 solutions i present. There is no good solution. THey will either let all hte PIIGS default or print money. One will lead to deflation and the other inflation and widen the gap between the rich and poor.
    Oct 27 04:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blaming The Germans For Today's Sell-Off Is Too Easy [View article]
    Even implying that this might be the Germans fault is beyond ridiculous. They should not be held accountable for the ineffeciency and laziness of the PIIGS. The Germans are not responsible for bailing anyone out and if they end up deciding to leave the EU at some point I would not blame them one bit
    Oct 17 10:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Big Trouble Brewing For The Global Economy [View article]
    I think (and hope) he was joking with that comment and being sarcastic. It's pretty obvious that the problem in Greece isn't getting more ink for tax returns lol
    Oct 14 12:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Big Trouble Brewing For The Global Economy [View article]
    Great article. This should be common sense to people but unfortunatley common sense isn't very common.
    Oct 14 09:29 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • On Why The Euro Is Trash And How To Play It [View article]
    Said short the euro and gave 2 etf/etns to do it with. Shorting the market is a way to play the rally on hope. The market and the euro trade together. This is a macro environment where the S&P 500 has been moving based on European headlines. If bad news comes out of Europe both the euro and the S&P will take a hit
    Oct 13 05:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Rally Based On Hope And No Fundamentals [View article]
    Read my article on the SPX fair value of 980?. average p/e historically is 15x and that will rise as earnings disappoint and we enter a recession thanks to europe, market has not fully priced in a recession or euro risk.
    Oct 11 01:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Rally Based On Hope And No Fundamentals [View article]
    thanks Ops! Appreciate it.
    Oct 11 01:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Risk With SodaStream International [View article]
    Thanks for the comment. I agree that SODA's main selling point is NOT cost savings, but I do believe that there are some there. I think I focused a little too much on the savings causing people to ignore some of the more important points that I didn't spend as much time on. The overall theme deals with the fact that I believe in the product and believe the company will produce strong Q3 and Q4 earnings as well as the fact that SODA's biggest risk is that Europe causes the market to tank and drags everything down with it.
    Oct 10 11:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500: Fair Value Of 980? [View article]
    If you would like more color on congress or europe i would ask you to read my other articles. those are issues that you could write books on. i wrote separate articles about them and cannot cover everything in one piece. i apologize if you didn't follow or found it confusing. and yes if Greece defaults without the EFSF having a couple trillion in place to prevent a run on banks and contagian in addition to supporting italian and spanish bond markets, it does go without saying that the market goes much lower.

    As it stands even with the support of printed money to bail out banks in the event of a default greece and spain are already in the middle of a depression (spain has over 20% unemployment), portugal is suffering a lot as well. It's almost a foregone conclusion that the weaker southern countries will drag the strong nothern ones into a recessino as the north needs the south to buy the good they export in order to grow. the USA needs Europe as well and if they enter a severe recession we will most likely follow. China is showing signs of slowing which is a whole separate issue. Again please read my other articles and visit http://bit.ly/op0ZJN
    Oct 3 08:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Is Down But Not Out [View article]
    I wrote this when it was in the 1500s. I can't control when SA actually posts it. There is a lag.
    Sep 27 01:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
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