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  • The Global Put: Inspired By 'Endgame' By John Mauldin And Jonathan Tepper [View article]
    Fair enough DM. I was responding to Lawrence's intital attack and lost patience. it's frustrating when you spend a lot of time researching or writing something and then people who either A dont bother to read it or B dont understand thay they are criticizing attack what you wrote. I'm done responding to comments. Intelligence adn knowledge are 2 different things. I was not referring to anyone's intellience, just knowledge on the suject matter. The comment was inappropriate. thanks for your readership.
    Sep 11 10:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Global Put: Inspired By 'Endgame' By John Mauldin And Jonathan Tepper [View article]
    long run it still devalues the dollar you clown, it might not force gdp down bc the velocity of money could drop. increasing the supply of anything all esle equal causes the value of each unit to fall. the velocity of money has been shown to mean revert over time. your rants about tips and inflation not hurting people who hold treasuries is completely false. the velocity of money mean reverts over time and tends to over and undershoot the mean. if you increae the ms in the long run it will elad to inflation as the velocity of money cant just to to zero and disappear as wed have no currency in that case. when it comes back after goign down obviuosly the value of the dollar will decrease. I said LONG TERM at least 20x. dude, stop talking, you clearly have no background in economics or studied anything in the field or you woudlnt be on seeking alpha. im here bc im 23 trying to make some money off premuim articles in addition to my IB job and i enjoy fnance and economics which is why im doing the CFA. Stop talking unless you have questions bc you have no real understanding of any of this, just little bits and pieices of what youve heard on cnbc or some other garbage source
    Sep 11 12:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Global Put: Inspired By 'Endgame' By John Mauldin And Jonathan Tepper [View article]
    lawrence you just dont have a clue, and the fact that you think you do is scary. pension funds, mutual funds, investors in gov securities don't price for inflation. If you hold gov debt priced to yield 2% and its fixed you lose money when inflation picks up end of story. long term gov debholders will get crushed as yields rise long term and prices of the debt they hold goes down. Appartenlty you dont even udnerstand that prices and yields are inversely related. Seriously, shut up. Very few people buy TIPS compared to the gov debt market and just looking at teh TIPS spread doesn't protect you from anythinjg. You can't time inflation. Stop talking, its embarassing
    Sep 10 11:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Global Put: Inspired By 'Endgame' By John Mauldin And Jonathan Tepper [View article]
    again, read my paper. deflation is the threat short term due to velocity falling, unemployment, slow growth, europe etc... to get out of debt and the mess we will try and print long term.
    Sep 10 11:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Global Put: Inspired By 'Endgame' By John Mauldin And Jonathan Tepper [View article]
    Lawrence this is where i think you were getting confused on the inflation thing. You said just because we print inflation does not necesarily increase. That is true. Nominal GDP affected by the velocity of money and the money supply so if the velocity slows but you pring (ie the money supply increases) you don't have to have inflation. My point is that the government WILL try to cause inflation because it is the only way out of the the excessive debt that we have.
    Sep 10 10:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Global Put: Inspired By 'Endgame' By John Mauldin And Jonathan Tepper [View article]
    "Only bondholders who fail to price for inflation are hurt by it. The rest get interest to compensate for the inflation." -Lawrence this is what you said. It is wrong. i corrected you by tellking that people who hold treasuries ("risk free" investors) get killed by inflation as teh coupons payments and principal does not adjust with inflatin (they are paid in nominal terms not real terms). You can't "price" for inflation. That doesn't even make sense. If you were referring to buying TIPS well that is irrelevent because i was talking about the majority of government debt that is held by investors which is not TIPS. You now just flip flopped you stance. TIPS are the exception to the rule, yes the idea behind TIPS is to protect against the very threat I wrote about. Again, read my post. These aren't "normal" times, i was referring to inflation and investors gettiing here, why you are tlaking about "normal" times where investors earn a positive real return is beyond me. I appreciate your discussion, but I have no interest in arguing over this as I am right, not that it even matters. Inflation will hurt people who hold government debt. Period. End of discussion.
    Sep 9 07:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Global Put: Inspired By 'Endgame' By John Mauldin And Jonathan Tepper [View article]
    Lawrence do yourself a favor and stop talking. You have not idea what you are talking about. You can't "price" for inflation. The 10Yr is a 2% right now. Your coupon won't cushion you from anything if inflation hits 2%+ in a few years and then takes off. Your payments are fixed and inflation goes up. You lose. Reinvesting cash flows at higher yields will not make up for it. It happens all the time, countries default on their debt via inflation at the expense of domestic bondholders. For the 100th time, read This Time Is Different. As a bondholder you can't "price" for inflaiont, you take the yield the market offers at the time and pray inflation doesn't erode away teh principal and coupon values of your debt.
    Sep 9 02:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks Are Not Cheap: Market More Likely To Go Down Than Up [View article]
    Ford is a cyclical and will get killed in a recession. If you want to make a long play with options you should be selling deep out of the money puts. iVol is rich compared to historical on puts right now as demand has skyrocketed thanks to the down market (look at the VIX) I'd look at Dec AAPL 250 puts or somethign and sell those instead of buying calls. You are probably already getting crushed by Vega and will get killed by time decay at an increasing rate as expiry approaches. Levering up with calls is too risky given Europe. If I had a long position in right now I would have sold or collared it by selling ATM calls 1 month out and buying just OTM puts 6 months out. Great paper www.optionseducation.o...
    read that, 10 yr study on collaring the QQQQs. produced significant alpha over time.
    Greece will default. It is not a matter of if, but a matter of when. maybe this weekend, maybe in one month, maybe in 2 years. It's not worth being long here
    Sep 9 02:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Global Put: Inspired By 'Endgame' By John Mauldin And Jonathan Tepper [View article]
    Thanks Albie. If you reread the article you will find that i point out domestic bond holders (pension funds, old people looking for a risk free return) will be hurt by inflation. Furthermore, inflation is a tax on savers. I made a point to specifically separate savers (those that keep their money in the bank or under their mattress) from people who use their savings to invest in stocks or housing as those are boosed by QE programs and printing due to the fact they are in nominal terms. Finally, there has been basically no inflation in recent years overall. I noted inflation has come to food and energy prices. These are commodities with a finite supply and/or experience an increase in demand due to growing global populations. Not even sure what you mean by "imported". However, the price of oil will not be going to $20 again anytime soon and Bachmann or any politican cant deliever on ridiculous prmises of $2 a gallon gas. Our policiy of devaluing the dollar is exactly why oil is going high in the LONG RUN and has been (deflation threats may push it down in the short term if Europe blows up, rather when it blows up). Our policy of depreciating the dollar has EVERYTHING to do with do with rising commodity prices.
    Please read what I wrote.
    Sep 9 11:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Global Put: Inspired By 'Endgame' By John Mauldin And Jonathan Tepper [View article]
    thank you very much
    Sep 9 09:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Global Put: Inspired By 'Endgame' By John Mauldin And Jonathan Tepper [View article]
    Yes the Fed claims its not printing as they do it electroncially and it is not creating money for government spending but rather to "buy assets". This is political garbage. We are adding to the money supply by "printing" electroncially in order to buy bonds (QE). You can call it printing, electronic bond buyding, QE, monetizing the debt, whatever. It is all the same. Don't be fooled. Bernanke also said there was no bubble in real estate before the crash either and there was nothing to worry about. Don't believe everything politicians and the government tells you mrx, start thinking for yourself. re-read my article. thanks for the comments everyone
    Sep 9 09:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Global Put: Inspired By 'Endgame' By John Mauldin And Jonathan Tepper [View article]
    Bond buying also known as QE is essentially printing money and stimulus which adds to the deficit and/or debt will lead to printing as that is the easiest way out for politicians. Where do you think the $600B+ came from for the latest QE program or the billions to bail out banks and how it will be paid for/who will pay for it? Whether or not they actually printed right now is irrelevent. All of it is essentially printing as that is what will be done to "solve" the problem. The whole point of my article is that we cannot pay it back in today's dollars and will have to continue to devalue the dollar by increasing the supply of the dollar (printing). I aplogize if I was not clear enough in my article. All these money and debt weve taken on has to come from somewhere, it doesn't just fall from the sky. Read Endgame and This Time is Different and study economics. Educate yourself and read my post through before posting nonsense on the wall.
    Sep 9 08:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Global Put: Inspired By 'Endgame' By John Mauldin And Jonathan Tepper [View article]
    The components that make up GDP are not up for debate. They are fact. I can't keep commenting here so this is my last one, but thank you for your interest. I did not write to debate whether monetarist, keynesian, austrian, etc is right or wrong or better. Austrain would not print to avoid pain they would cut the spending and take the depression for 5 yrs and then work out of it. Keynesian, which most policy makers are in Europe and the US like to print. My point is there is no easy way out of this mess. Debating how GDP is caluclated is silly. The fact is that when GDP starts to go negative our recent policies have been to increase government spending to keep GDP up. This will cause pain in the long run. Read "This Time is Different" by Rogoff. Thanks again.
    Sep 8 01:51 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Global Put: Inspired By 'Endgame' By John Mauldin And Jonathan Tepper [View article]
    That's completely false and not even relevent to the sentence you quoted. Supply of goods? I'm sorry, what? Are you referring to our current account deficit as we buy more goods (import) than export. the GDP equation is GDP = C + I + G + NX and it has to balance. My whole point is as our C (consumption) drops and pushes down GDP, to avoid that pain of economic contractino we boost G (government spending) via the printing of money also caleld QE or stimulus. This does nothing. We are trying to devalue the dollar to become more competitive to the rest of the world in terms of exports so we can boost our NX into positive territory eliminating the need to finance (borrow money) our current account deficit. The problem is, EVERY country is trying to devalue their currency to be more competitive in terms of exports bc EVERY developed nation has a HUGE debt problem that they are trying to grow out of. We can't grow out of it. Thank you for your comment though.
    Sep 8 12:55 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Play On Fear [View article]
    No position at the moment. Also buying the cash vix and selling futures farther out is a great trade. Do the math. In a normal market environment (VIX not just spiking) the futures are usually in contango, you would get killed trying to roll them being long. You can make money going short, plus since the futures often trade at a premium to the spot the futures do not spike as hard when the cash does. Don't lecture me, you probably do not even understand the trade. If you did you would not be giving me a hard time but rather doing it.
    Sep 8 11:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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