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Turtle Management

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  • SodaStream, An Investment Not A Trade [View article]
    You're missing the point. The CEO did guide higher and he is very conservative. He has already said he doesn't like raise the bar and guide higher. This stock IS NOT about guidance from the CEO. He like to be like Apple and crush estimates. The 10% implied decline is so far off and irrelevent. Q4 will beat the $.57 EPS (or .42 euro) in Q3. Ther is no 70% declining sales. You are making assumptions off of numbers that are not credible and coming from nowhere. Hope that helps. I don't want to argue, Q3 spoke for themselves and Q4 will as well. If you disagree that is fine, but let the quarter do the talking and then if they miss you can come back and say i told you so.
    Nov 15 10:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SodaStream, An Investment Not A Trade [View article]
    How they guide is irrelevant in the long run. The stock price will correct to the actual earnings results soon enough. The most recent CC was not downbeat at all. The last one was not even down beat they just would not guide higher so the Street got all upset and sold off. They were very positive this time around regarding Japan, mroe doors in the U.S. the holidays, acceptance of their product in the Americas, etc.
    Nov 14 03:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SodaStream, An Investment Not A Trade [View article]
    Don't worry about the guidance. Last year in a call the CEO specifically noted how he likes to "be like Apple" and guide conservative and then kill street estimates. This was obvioulsy the case this quarter. He isn't going to come out and make extremely bullish statements or promises, the earnings will speak for itself. Distribution has grown dramatically over the past year and Q4 is going to crush it; don't get caught up in "guidance" as if Dan's guidance is comparable to the average street CEO's guidance. The forecasts are irrelevent. Don't be shocked if analysts come out in the next month or two and significantly raise estimates for 2011, Q4, and even 2012.
    Nov 14 08:01 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why SodaStream Will Rip In The Next 4 Months [View article]
    Soda crushed estimates and they will do so again in Q4. Stock finished around $36 or about 6% up despite the market crashing so not too bad. It will continue to run up over the next few months as people wake up and realize this thing is legit and will sell.

    Concerning the calls, Cramer is clown. That aside consumables grew, they just didn't grow at the same rate that soda makers did. This is not worrisome because the majority people have to buy the soda maker before they load up on consumables and most makers come with a bunch of trial packets so you dont have to buy consumables right away. The CO2 slowdown in America is not concerning either. CO2 sales hit a record level but also did not accelerate as fast. The reason that this is not a concern is becuase they have been steady in Europe where CO2 is actually sold in stores. Now CO2 will be sold in Macy's making it easier to buy. Before it was a PIA which is why it wasn't bought as much.

    I wrote an aritcle before this one called the real risk with sodastream. the real risk being Europe crashing. Looks like both are happening at the same time (europe crashing and SODA reporting great earnings)
    Nov 9 04:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Risk With SodaStream International [View article]
    Thanks for the comment. I agree that SODA's main selling point is NOT cost savings, but I do believe that there are some there. I think I focused a little too much on the savings causing people to ignore some of the more important points that I didn't spend as much time on. The overall theme deals with the fact that I believe in the product and believe the company will produce strong Q3 and Q4 earnings as well as the fact that SODA's biggest risk is that Europe causes the market to tank and drags everything down with it.
    Oct 10 11:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Risk With SodaStream International [View article]
    Yes I apologize I said Gaza Strip by accident. page 17 states West Bank. The point was that it is located in disputed territory. I am aware of the boycotts, can't write about everything or it would be 30 pages long. Made a mistake. Page 18 of the annual talks about violence in the Gaza Strip which is why I mixed them up. Again, I apologize.
    Sep 11 11:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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