Tyler Peglow - Seeking Alpha © seekingalpha.com. Use of this feed is limited to personal, non-commercial use and is governed by Seeking Alpha's Terms of Use (http://seekingalpha.com/page/terms-of-use). Publishing this feed for public or commercial use and/or misrepresentation by a third party is prohibited. SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/author/tyler-peglow Longwei Petroleum: On Its Way Back From Valuation Hell http://seekingalpha.com/article/919511-longwei-petroleum-on-its-way-back-from-valuation-hell?source=feed 919511 It has been over 15 months since I posted my second of two articles on Longwei Petroleum (LPH), "Seeking Legitimate Value in China Small Cap Longwei Petroleum," and "Longwei Petroleum: A Contrarian Long Idea for 2011."

My call of buying Longwei Petroleum last year was fundamentally mistimed. I failed to identify the severity of fraud, lack of legal recourse, and subsequent U.S. investment institutions' adverse "sell everything" stance related to small cap China. For my times in and out of this stock since late fall of 2010, I have nothing to show but losses, but this appears to be changing. My underlying thesis of these articles that the company would most likely emerge from the Chinese small cap investment space, which has been wrought with fraud, as one of the few winners appears to be panning out.

Last Thursday, Longwei completed the long-awaited acquisition of its

]]> Thu, 11 Oct 2012 17:17:57 -0400 Tyler Peglow By Tyler Peglow:

It has been over 15 months since I posted my second of two articles on Longwei Petroleum (LPH), "Seeking Legitimate Value in China Small Cap Longwei Petroleum," and "Longwei Petroleum: A Contrarian Long Idea for 2011."

My call of buying Longwei Petroleum last year was fundamentally mistimed. I failed to identify the severity of fraud, lack of legal recourse, and subsequent U.S. investment institutions' adverse "sell everything" stance related to small cap China. For my times in and out of this stock since late fall of 2010, I have nothing to show but losses, but this appears to be changing. My underlying thesis of these articles that the company would most likely emerge from the Chinese small cap investment space, which has been wrought with fraud, as one of the few winners appears to be panning out.

Last Thursday, Longwei completed the long-awaited acquisition of its


Complete Story »]]> FMCN KMP PTR LPH Tyler Peglow Apple Unlikely To Report Less Than $64 In EPS In FY2012: A Look At Recent History http://seekingalpha.com/article/586551-apple-unlikely-to-report-less-than-64-in-eps-in-fy2012-a-look-at-recent-history?source=feed 586551 Apple's calendar year 1st quarter 2012 was arguably the company's biggest EPS blowout in history by beating Apple's own guidance by 35% and Wall Street consensus models by more than 25% in what has historically been a quiet quarter for Apple. Net income rose to $11.6 billion, or $12.30 a share, from $6 billion, or $6.40 per share, a year earlier. This had led to the same "rinse, wash, repeat" action whereby Wall Street analysts go back to their models and up their revenue, EPS, and price target estimates for the remainder of the year in a continual underestimation of Apple's earnings power.

I am no Apple analyst. I am writing this article for a common sense frame of reference that Wall Street seems to so often lack.

It is no secret Apple constantly sandbags their guidance numbers and subsequently crushes those figures every quarter in an under-promise over-deliver strategy

]]> Mon, 14 May 2012 09:43:55 -0400 Tyler Peglow By Tyler Peglow:

Apple's calendar year 1st quarter 2012 was arguably the company's biggest EPS blowout in history by beating Apple's own guidance by 35% and Wall Street consensus models by more than 25% in what has historically been a quiet quarter for Apple. Net income rose to $11.6 billion, or $12.30 a share, from $6 billion, or $6.40 per share, a year earlier. This had led to the same "rinse, wash, repeat" action whereby Wall Street analysts go back to their models and up their revenue, EPS, and price target estimates for the remainder of the year in a continual underestimation of Apple's earnings power.

I am no Apple analyst. I am writing this article for a common sense frame of reference that Wall Street seems to so often lack.

It is no secret Apple constantly sandbags their guidance numbers and subsequently crushes those figures every quarter in an under-promise over-deliver strategy


Complete Story »]]> AAPL Tyler Peglow Seeking 'Legitimate' Value in China Small Cap Longwei Petroleum http://seekingalpha.com/article/259685-seeking-legitimate-value-in-china-small-cap-longwei-petroleum?source=feed 259685 News for the aggregate Chinese small cap sector couldn’t get much worse. On March 11, 2011, shares of China Media Express Holdings (CCME) were halted on account of "pending news" regarding accusations the company has been misstating revenue and earnings. CCME use to be the underground "darling" of sophisticated individual investors in small cap China because of its reported cheap valuation, boasted a top 4 auditor (Deloitte), the CFO (Jacky Lam) had made a recent "market" purchase of $1.5 million dollars of stock, and CCME had the financial backing in the form a $13.5 million dollar equity investment by the fund (Starr International CO.) ran by ex-Wall Street Titan Hank Greenberg. CCME was "reportedly" growing its business on the top and bottom line 30-40% and was trading for 5 or 6 times earnings.

That all changed when on January 30 Citron Research issued a report detailing accusations that CCME

]]> Wed, 23 Mar 2011 08:11:12 -0400 Tyler Peglow By Tyler Peglow:

News for the aggregate Chinese small cap sector couldn’t get much worse. On March 11, 2011, shares of China Media Express Holdings (CCME) were halted on account of "pending news" regarding accusations the company has been misstating revenue and earnings. CCME use to be the underground "darling" of sophisticated individual investors in small cap China because of its reported cheap valuation, boasted a top 4 auditor (Deloitte), the CFO (Jacky Lam) had made a recent "market" purchase of $1.5 million dollars of stock, and CCME had the financial backing in the form a $13.5 million dollar equity investment by the fund (Starr International CO.) ran by ex-Wall Street Titan Hank Greenberg. CCME was "reportedly" growing its business on the top and bottom line 30-40% and was trading for 5 or 6 times earnings.

That all changed when on January 30 Citron Research issued a report detailing accusations that CCME


Complete Story »]]> LPH CBEH.PK CCME.OB DEER.OB CHBT.PK CAGC.PK Tyler Peglow Longwei Petroleum: A Contrarian Long Idea for 2011 http://seekingalpha.com/article/252769-longwei-petroleum-a-contrarian-long-idea-for-2011?source=feed 252769 Making money in the stock market is about searching for potentially mispriced situations and getting beneath the reasoning to try and find value. I would like to consider myself a contrarian type value investor that invests in spaces where others aren’t or won’t dare to go. Where people think there is maximum risk with little reward (circa the entire equity market in March of 2009). This has led me to the Chinese small cap space—searching for small cap Chinese companies listed in the US that are being accused of fraud or just plain ignored by investors and as such are trading at very cheap valuations.
Lately it’s been Chinese companies that are getting bashed for accounting fraud and accused of forming shell corporations that only function to bilk money from naive American investors in the investment media. While I have no doubt there is plenty of fraud that goes on
]]> Mon, 14 Feb 2011 17:34:50 -0500 Tyler Peglow By Tyler Peglow:
Making money in the stock market is about searching for potentially mispriced situations and getting beneath the reasoning to try and find value. I would like to consider myself a contrarian type value investor that invests in spaces where others aren’t or won’t dare to go. Where people think there is maximum risk with little reward (circa the entire equity market in March of 2009). This has led me to the Chinese small cap space—searching for small cap Chinese companies listed in the US that are being accused of fraud or just plain ignored by investors and as such are trading at very cheap valuations.
Lately it’s been Chinese companies that are getting bashed for accounting fraud and accused of forming shell corporations that only function to bilk money from naive American investors in the investment media. While I have no doubt there is plenty of fraud that goes on

Complete Story »]]> LPH Tyler Peglow Apple: Waiting for Price to Catch Fundamentals http://seekingalpha.com/article/219500-apple-waiting-for-price-to-catch-fundamentals?source=feed 219500 In the first week of May I put a bullish position on Apple (AAPL) thinking that two new successful product launches this spring/summer, namely the iPhone 4 and iPad, would be the catalyst to drive the stock price to $300 by the end of the third quarter. My trade (which, though I’ll admit being long Apple seemed a bit crowded, I nonetheless jumped on the bandwagon) was to buy the ($260-$300) call spread financed by selling a naked put at $230 (October expiration). The cost of my trade was virtually nothing (although it does tie up margin and I am naked short Apple at $230).

Apple has more than delivered on its promise to provide “blow-out” numbers in its phenomenal second quarter (third fiscal) with subsequent great guidance for the rest of 2010. Where else in large cap equity can you find earnings up 78% (yoy) with revenues up 61%,

]]> Mon, 09 Aug 2010 08:07:45 -0400 Tyler Peglow By Tyler Peglow:

In the first week of May I put a bullish position on Apple (AAPL) thinking that two new successful product launches this spring/summer, namely the iPhone 4 and iPad, would be the catalyst to drive the stock price to $300 by the end of the third quarter. My trade (which, though I’ll admit being long Apple seemed a bit crowded, I nonetheless jumped on the bandwagon) was to buy the ($260-$300) call spread financed by selling a naked put at $230 (October expiration). The cost of my trade was virtually nothing (although it does tie up margin and I am naked short Apple at $230).

Apple has more than delivered on its promise to provide “blow-out” numbers in its phenomenal second quarter (third fiscal) with subsequent great guidance for the rest of 2010. Where else in large cap equity can you find earnings up 78% (yoy) with revenues up 61%,


Complete Story »]]> AAPL Tyler Peglow First Industrial: Great Value for Long-Term Investors http://seekingalpha.com/article/216393-first-industrial-great-value-for-long-term-investors?source=feed 216393 Since worries about the European debt crisis, a double dip recession, and future guidance of companies sent the Dow and S&P down nearly 20% from their April highs, First Industrial’s (FR) stock has been cut in half ($9.33 at April peak, $4.04 now). First Industrial is trading at less than 5x 2010 earnings [.90 FFO] with a price to book ratio of .38—either the market is pricing in a type of depression downturn for industrial real estate or First Industrial is now at a very attractive value.

Personally, I feel First Industrial is trading at an attractive value for four primary reasons:

  1. Too much leverage for many institutions to feel comfortable with
  2. Pays no dividend on common shares
  3. Operating fundamentals are still decreasing (rental rates & occupancy)
  4. Some institutions are restricted from owning it (see reasons 1,2,&3 above)

My current investment thesis is that First Industrial will be able to

]]> Mon, 26 Jul 2010 07:13:45 -0400 Tyler Peglow By Tyler Peglow:

Since worries about the European debt crisis, a double dip recession, and future guidance of companies sent the Dow and S&P down nearly 20% from their April highs, First Industrial’s (FR) stock has been cut in half ($9.33 at April peak, $4.04 now). First Industrial is trading at less than 5x 2010 earnings [.90 FFO] with a price to book ratio of .38—either the market is pricing in a type of depression downturn for industrial real estate or First Industrial is now at a very attractive value.

Personally, I feel First Industrial is trading at an attractive value for four primary reasons:

  1. Too much leverage for many institutions to feel comfortable with
  2. Pays no dividend on common shares
  3. Operating fundamentals are still decreasing (rental rates & occupancy)
  4. Some institutions are restricted from owning it (see reasons 1,2,&3 above)

My current investment thesis is that First Industrial will be able to


Complete Story »]]> FR Tyler Peglow