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Tyler Peglow  

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  • Another Dollar Bullish Divergence [View article]
    I am referring to the unemployment rate. I understand the whole inflation argument but then why hasn't that worked out for Japan? I know the whole "Japan is different" argument but 0% rates for years hasn't led to a whole lot of inflation over there.

    Do you think FED Yellen and Co. will pay attention to this whole plea of the IMF to not raise rates until early 2016 or will stay their "data dependent" course IMF be damned?

    Of course their "data points" seem to move around a little bit.
    Jun 4, 2015. 05:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Dollar Bullish Divergence [View article]
    Marc---out of curiosity if you were Janet Yellen would you hike rates now? In reading your book and going back through history when I look at periods of strong dollar it doesn't really equate at all to a weak economy (in some cases the opposite).

    Is the FED worried about equity valuations that much? Why are they so afraid of a strong dollar? Emerging markets??

    I realize they keep saying they are waiting for a pick up in the labor market but they keep moving the carrot lower the past couple years as the economy has generally trended upwards towards their "previous" targets or bullet points to hike rates.
    Jun 3, 2015. 02:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brief Thoughts About The Dollar's Price Action [View article]
    Couldn't agree more DanielJRoche... Marc what is your take on an RBA rate cut in May? Do you think rising home prices in Australia could be a reason the RBA doesn't cut in May? With the Chinese economy and mining industry in particular (Iron Ore etc.) having a big slowdown I remain bearish the Aussie dollar. Just trying to gauge what I need to be on the lookout for in terms of data in which the RBA would keep rates where they are or the Aussie dollar would strengthen (I know the monetary policy committee feels they have an overvalued exchange rate).
    Apr 10, 2015. 05:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Closer Look At Boardwalk Pipeline Partners' Q2'14 Distributable Cash Flow [View article]
    Ron great analysis I appreciate the information. Question I have: BWP's yield is well below it's peers but it is trading cheaper on a DCF multiple (15.6 vs. 11.6). Don't you think these metrics will converge once BWP reaps the proceeds of their capex projects in the next 2-3 years?

    Secondly--in 2-3 years when BWP starts reaping whatever benefits come of the recent investments don't you think BWP could potentially trade at a premium to the peer group--won't the peer group at some point in time need to re-invest (cut dividends to fund growth) etc. like BWP is doing now? Obviously I realize a lot of that depends on where your current pipelines are and what fields are gushers in the future.
    Aug 29, 2014. 02:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Infinite Future Of The Yen [View article]
    Marc what is your basis for JPY97 at the end of Q3? I can agree the Yen can stay range bound for some time but simply knowing all the statistics out there (debt to GDP, income to debt ratios etc.) for the Japanese government is there a plausible scenario whereby Japan could actually come out of this WITHOUT some sort of currency/gov't bond crisis? Logically I don't see how any scenario plays out whereby they could avoid some sort of fate like that long term?
    Aug 1, 2013. 05:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why 105 USD/JPY Is Possible [View article]

    What is the timeframe on your analysis--you mention the USD/JPY to hit 103 and likely 105 but 110 seems to be a stretch. Are you predicting this price movement in the next 3, 6, 12 months etc.?

    Thanks for the info.
    May 10, 2013. 03:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Longwei Petroleum Vs. GeoInvesting: Someone's Wrong [View article]
    No doubt it is a fraud. There will be no repurcussions for the Chinese directors obviously. Mike Toups undoubtedly belongs in jail (chance he gets there 1 in 100). Industry is littered with snake oil salesman but if you're playing the game you have to know that. Unfortunately I overlooked red flags and vague answers in CC's and put faith in the acqusition of the 3rd fuel storage facility and the SAIC/SAC reconciliation--both faked--but both faked with Toups (American) knowledge undoubtedly.
    Mar 25, 2013. 08:38 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Apple Confusion [View article]
    1/3 of your net worth--hahaha--that's a bullish bet--appreciate your articles. I remember reading one of your bullish AAPL articles last year when the stock was around $340 or so--your net worth must have had a heck of a bounce the past year. Thanks for the piece and research tidbit.
    Oct 17, 2012. 11:29 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Longwei Petroleum: On Its Way Back From Valuation Hell [View article]
    Cameron--just out of curiousity do you solely trade penny stocks?
    Oct 15, 2012. 11:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Slide Gives An Option Investor A Fat Pitch Down The Middle [View article]
    I like the trade. Possible way to make money while AAPL consolidates. Thanks for sharing!
    Oct 1, 2012. 03:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why QE3 Can't Work: Understanding The Liquidity Trap [View article]
    Good article, respect your opinion but if you want to make money in the market--trade PRICE not OPINION... Price at 52 wk highs with hedge funds underperforming SPY says we go HIGHER in the short term.
    Sep 16, 2012. 06:30 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fueling The China Engine: A View From The Top [View article]
    To be honest whether they hedge their inventory or not is really a moot point until this company gets valued for what it is--good or bad... That should be the only question right now trying to be answered by investors--which this article is trying...
    Jul 25, 2012. 05:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fueling The China Engine: A View From The Top [View article]
    That and the handling thus far of the 3rd acqusition has been fishy to say the least when taking into account U.S. investors nerves for Chinese small caps.... If indeed it goes through and it's legit I think it's been totally mishandled by management and investor relations...
    Jul 24, 2012. 10:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fueling The China Engine: A View From The Top [View article]
    Great article, Great work! The problem for institutions is that even if they believed this article and the business of LPH the float is so small and avg. shares traded daily so miniscule they couldn't build a meaningful position in LPH....

    It's like working in institutional RE... If a deal comes around that is worth $400k that a big fund could buy for $100k--they could make a massive IRR that would be very meaningful to a little guy--but in a billion dollar organization nobody cares because nominal profits are so small...

    Also not sure why bigger players wouldn't be looking at something like LPH to take it to Hong Kong where investors are more comfortable with China....
    Jul 24, 2012. 10:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Unlikely To Report Less Than $64 In EPS In FY2012: A Look At Recent History [View article]
    Excellent insight Camden--didn't look at it that way--thanks... Another big problem with these numbers is I assume Aapl releases i5 in the 3rd quarter. If we run into the same problem we had last year where consumers wait for the i5 until q4 q3 will probably be to weak to get apple to $64 eps in 2012... I think they need at least 1.5 quarters of i5 to get there...
    May 14, 2012. 09:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment