Tyler Savery

Sirius XM Stock Is Technically in No Man's Land

relmar....

As I explained in the comments on my site, the "no-mans-land" referred to in this article is where there are technical indicators that could go either way. Right now we have both bullish and bearish indicators.

Yes, the support at 29 and 23 is weak. The resistance at 40 is also week. The 30's represent the tug-of-war happening with this equity. If the equity breaks under 30 cents, there is little to stop a slide down even further. If the equity breaks 40 cents, there is little to stop a run upwards.

There was light volume through the 20's, and light volume through the 40's.

Here in the 30's, with conflicting technical signs this equity is in what I term as a no-mans-land. Short term, EMA's, MCAD's, and stochastics are bearish. Fibs and lows are bullish, while other technical indicators are neutral.

I agree that all of the trading has been happening in the 30's, but it has been a battlefront where no clear winning trades are defined unless you are looking to trade on the 2 or 3 cent moves.

All an opinion, and that is what is great about technical trading styles. There are various opinions.

Is Sirius Going Down the DISH Road?

41220.....

I am sorry you have that opinion. One thing you need to consider is that some articles are reports on the opinions of analysts. I cover those reports because they are relative to the subject of satellite radio.

In my opinion my thoughts on Sirius XM have been pretty consistent. I feel that there are short term challenges, but the longer term picture is much better.

By example, I expressed quite clearly the challenges the company would have with subscriber numbers in Q1, as well as what I felt would be highlighted in the call. I also stated that a lot of the reaction about the quarter would be determined in whether the press highlited the subscriber number or the adjusted EBITDA.

For the record, Q2 will have subscriber challenges as well, but again, that is short term.

On May 12 02:14 AM User 412200 wrote:

> Tyler, your articles are sorry. They are never in sinc. One
> day you talk great about Sirius, how they are going to surprise<br/>sha...
> Then other writers write in and you then
> sway your articles as if you were always on their page.
> I will never know about you.

Sirius XM's Subscriber Numbers Grow, Despite Economy

In respect for Brandon, I will keep this brief, and am posting this to clear up one statement by Relmar.

I have never stated that "parking lot subs" are a radio(or subscription) that has not been installed yet and sitting on a shelf. To be clear here, the company counts only those radios for which they have received payment.

"Parking lot subs" was a term coined by an analyst to describe subscriptions relating to deals like Chrysler, and Ford. Specifically, "parking lot subs" refers to the period of time between the manufacture of a car, and when it sells to an end user. The company has been paid for a subscription (at manufactur and thus it is counted as a sub), but as yet, there is not an end user (the car has not been sold). These cars (subs) are literally sitting in ports or on dealer lots and thus the term "parking lot sub". This group would be considered a subset of the promotional subscriber metric. The importance of the separation is in how this group impacts metrics such as ARPU and churn.

It is an important non-official metric to understand because it bears an impact on other offical metrics.


On May 10 12:26 PM relmar2003 wrote:

> Tyler is trying to rip you for your "diction". He has broken down
> promo subs even further, saying parking lot subs are different than
> Promo subs. Parking lot sub tyler writes is a radio that hasnt even
> been installed yet. Yet is still counted. Its on the shelf. But you
> know what Brandon, its irrelevant. Because the loss in subs is purely
> math, and has ZERO to do with demand. As your article states very
> well. You can call it a Crackpot sub, a jerkoff sub, whatever. fact
> is they should never have been counted in the first place, and we
> finally took the hit for that TERRIBLE decision.

RBC Capital Anticipates 'Dismal Subscriber Trends' for Sirius XM

SL62....

Analysts always do pre call reports, and RBC maintaining their sector perform rating should not be a surprise. They have had a sector perform on the equity for quite some time.

As for me reporting it.....I simply report things when they come out. Bank reported yesterday, Barrington and Janco today. I gave my own take last Friday. If I were to not report it, what kind of reporting would that be?


On May 06 06:22 PM sl62 wrote:

> Tyler...
>
> As you know, I have no problem with you having an opinion and respect
> your take on the company. But the timing of Bank issuing a "sector
> perform" and you reporting on it seems suspect. I mean c'mon. If
> you are an analyst (hypothetically), why aren't you waiting until
> AFTER the Q to offer your opinion and how it relates to the SP and
> space. Again, if this was just you giving your opinion, I have no
> problem. IMO, you reporting on Bank the day before the actual Q specifically
> is ill-timed and your only crime. How does he know the actual numbers
> to make these calls? And if he doesn't know the numbers, and they
> are a day away, why doesn't he just wait a day and actually base
> his opinions on facts rather than his comjecture based on "projections"
> and "trends." Sorry but no soap for David Bank and unfortunately
> you bit on a bad bone here.

RBC Capital Anticipates 'Dismal Subscriber Trends' for Sirius XM

Underway.....

Most reporters never gut to write their own headline. For the record, I do not submit articles. The agreement with Seeking Alpha allows for them to use articles from my site at their choice. They do not republish all of my work.


On May 06 09:00 AM underway wrote:

> Really? I didn't know that, but, that doesn't make sense from a journalist
> perspective. If you submit a piece with a headline and the publisher
> wishes to change it, there's supposed to be a discussion. And, I
> don't think I'd submit something without a headline and leave it
> up to the publisher to write their own. Publisher has editorial rights,
> understood. But, as a reporter, you don't have to surrender all of
> your rights. If I were reporting and a publisher said it's 'my way
> or the highway', I'd hit the road and find another publisher. Headlines
> are huge and it can change the take on the article since the reader
> is predisposed by the headline. I would never allow anyone to simply
> make whatever changes they want to my work without a discussion and
> my right to pull the piece if agreement can't be reached. that's
> just me.

RBC Capital Anticipates 'Dismal Subscriber Trends' for Sirius XM

Having an opinion before the call is what analysts get paid to do. They will also issue reports after the call. I do not make buy sell or hold calls. I am not a financial advisor. I do offer an opinion, and you have every right not to agree with it.

A major part of investing in the markets is to try to anticipate activities before they happen.


On May 06 07:50 AM sl62 wrote:

> Tyler...
>
> My only comment here is WhyTF is "David Bank" or "you" conjecturing
> about the Q, opining on "sector perform" or anything else related,
> the day before the actual Q????? A little advice to both of you.
> How about waiting a day my friend...and lo and behold...you actually
> will have the real facts and won't have to conjecture. That's a whopper
> of an idea isn't it! Or..what is this exercise for you and Dave..a
> bad attempt at trying to prove you know more about the company than
> the company??! Probably. Sorry, both your timing falls flat. I'll
> just wait for Mel to tell me what's really going on tomorrow morning.

RBC Capital Anticipates 'Dismal Subscriber Trends' for Sirius XM

I dont make the headlines on Seeking Alpha. If you will note, the original article published on my site carries the headline "RBC Capital's David Bank Weighs In On Sirius XM"


On May 06 08:08 AM underway wrote:

> why the hell would you make the headline 'dismal subscriber trends'???
> as opposed to 'sector perform'??? Do you want to see if your article
> can cause the stock to go down? Perhaps an experiment to gauge your
> media power?
> I know that those aren't your words, and you are merely reporting
> on what the analyst said...but...c'mon man, why use hyperbole in
> your headline? And it would be equally irresponsible to use an over
> the top positive headline as well. Like the National Enquirer I guess.
> Such BS.

East Meets West in the Sirius / Liberty Deal

A perfect example of the misunderstandings of the Howard deal:

1. $500,000,000 was for the Howard brand...not Howard.

2. The deal includes Scott Ferrall, Bubba The Love Sponge, Jackie Martling, Miserable Men, Howard 100 News, construction of the studio, the pay for all of the show cast, etc. All of what transpires on the Howard channels is part of the $500,000,000.

3. Satellite radio has ALWAYS had commercials. The talk and news channels have had commercials since day 1. The commercial free aspect of SDARS is the MUSIC channels.

4. As for Howard not being popular....Please supply some evidence to support that assertion. There is plenty of evidence that shows that he still carries wide influence. Look at google search trends to start.



On Apr 30 08:46 AM BChargers wrote:

> "Howard Stern - The Stern Deal, which is oft misunderstood, expires
> December 31st 2010, a bit over 18 months from now."
>
> Misunderstood? Is that the word you meant to use?
> I think most understood his deal; Howard Stern's career was virtually
> over. Radio didnt want him and the E network had let him go in favor
> of someone (35 years) younger and current . Almost everyone knew
> Howard Stern aka Fartman peaked back in the 80's .
> In 2005 he was virtually off the radar entirely.
> What people DON'T understand is WHY Sirius would give him more than
> half a billion dollars? ? AND let him bring commercials to what was
> supposed to be commercial free radio AND keep the proceeds?
>
>
>
>

Clarifying Sirius Ambiguities over Liberty Shares

I feel the need to clarify one thing.....

There is only one possible situation where the 12.5 million preferred shares could come back to sirius XM radio at this point, and that situatiuon is out of Sirius XM's control.

IF (and this is a HUGE IF) Liberty were to not come through on the $150 million in cash/credit in December of this year, Sirius XM would have a possible claim to gain back the preferred shares because Liberty will have defaulted on a part of the deal.

The reason this is such a huge longshot is because the 12.5 million preferred shares are worth well above the $150 million Liberty would need to come up with. For Liberty to default simply makes no business sense whatsoever.

The foolishness of this debate is in the fact that checking out the documents, and some simple phone calls (Liberty Investor Relations as well as Sirius) will provide any investor the answers they are seeking.

There is no going back to get the 12.5 million preferred shares for Sirius XM radio. Anything to do with those shares is out of the control of Sirius XM. Plain and simple

Clarifying Sirius Ambiguities over Liberty Shares

For All.....

When Seeking Alpha picked up this article they attributed the Liberty investrment to symbol LINTA. The correcxt symbol is LCAPA. I have notified Seeking Alpha of the issue, and wanted to get the information to those that are reading this piece prior to the corrections being made.


On Apr 22 12:47 PM Tyler Savery wrote:

> Let's Keep this simle....
>
> 1. I am well aware that the shares are preferred shares and convert
> to 40% of the common stock. I have writen about it many times.<br/>
>
> 2. A Simple phone call to investor relations will provide anyone
> the answers they seek. That answer will be that the 12.5 million
> preferred shares are Liberty's to keep. No suposition, no smoke and
> mirrors. the shares are Liberty's plain and simple. I fully encouracge
> anyone to place a call to investor relations of BOTH Sirius XM and
> Liberty to confirm this.

Clarifying Sirius Ambiguities over Liberty Shares

Let's Keep this simle....

1. I am well aware that the shares are preferred shares and convert to 40% of the common stock. I have writen about it many times.

2. A Simple phone call to investor relations will provide anyone the answers they seek. That answer will be that the 12.5 million preferred shares are Liberty's to keep. No suposition, no smoke and mirrors. the shares are Liberty's plain and simple. I fully encouracge anyone to place a call to investor relations of BOTH Sirius XM and Liberty to confirm this.

Sirius Needs to Provide the Goods, Now

Yes, the debt still exists, and it is not inexpensive. However, the biggest issue with the debt was the timing that it was all due. If the company can bring together their synergies, execute on a business model that works, and grow the subscriber base, the debt becomes more workable.

I was in no way truing to imply that the debt is gone. What I am saying is that the business at hand is no longer the debt. The business at hand is growing and gaining the confidence of the street.

Auto Sales Projections Add More Worry to Sirius XM

27197....

I saw your comment as well as your retraction. I want to clarify something. I have no control whatsoever on the comments of Seeking Alpha. Seeking Alpha is independent of my site, and tthey do from time to time re-publish my work. My access to comments is identical to anyone else here.


On Jan 16 11:48 AM User 271917 wrote:

> Tyler hiding comments again.Your no better than the people that run
> this country.

Auto Sales Projections Add More Worry to Sirius XM

Seba....

I do not give financial advice. Each investor has to do their own homework, and part of that should include speaking to a financial advisor.


On Jan 16 10:21 AM Seba72 wrote:

> Tyler and readers,
>
> I read your artilce and I wanted to tell you that I have a small
> amount of money to invest in a risky stock, would you recommend to
> buy SIRI and wait until it recovers? Do you all think that this company´s
> stock wil rise in the near future?
> I look forward to hear comments about this. Thanks.

AT&T Moves into Car Audio Entertainment Space

No. Services through rental companies cost more. Avis will charge $8.95 per day for the Cruisecat service