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Uncommon Sense

 
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  • Short Interest For Nokia Is At An All-Time High [View article]
    Actually looks like the company did state last April that they expected operations to begin early 2013 so it appears it has been slightly delayed. http://tnw.co/ZQhY9I
    Mar 19 02:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Interest For Nokia Is At An All-Time High [View article]
    Why do you say the factory construction is delayed? Where have you seen Nokia state an earlier date than what that article shows?
    Mar 19 02:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should Microsoft Make A Smartphone? [View article]
    WP8 users will be able to upgrade to WP9 (or whatever the update is called) before then, which will restart the 18 month support cycle. This happens with Android and iOS as well.

    The amount of misinformation coming out lately is astonishing
    Mar 18 02:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Once Again, Nokia Gets Downgraded By Goldman Sachs [View article]
    NSN is not "about to be stopped", the original JV agreement expires soon but I'm sure they plan on renewing since it is very profitable and new contracts continue to get announced.
    Mar 15 09:03 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should Microsoft Make A Smartphone? [View article]
    No they should not, at least not anytime soon. That would be a good way to push away Nokia who even bearish Goldman Sachs expects to sell 50 million Lumias next year. Nokia has stated they welcome competition within WP but I don't think they would appreciate MSFT jumping in right now. Nokia likely wouldn't stop making WP devices but they might respond by also making high-end devices for another OS which would probably cause the overall number of WP users to shrink. I think a better idea would be to buy Nokia now, keep the phone and map businesses with related patents and spin off NSN.
    Mar 14 06:10 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Once Again, Nokia Gets Downgraded By Goldman Sachs [View article]
    Who actually listens to sell-side analysts anymore?
    Mar 14 10:36 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia Will Probably Launch Android Phones [View article]
    There is a difference between market and market share. IMO, most Android users aren't super loyal to the OS and would be willing to switch for a better experience (I've seen some claims that 50% of BBRY's Z10 sales have come from existing Android and iOS users). Windows Phone is a better OS in many ways and I expect it to start gaining significant share this year as it gets more exposure. This should help http://bit.ly/12MhWSO
    Mar 12 03:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia Will Probably Launch Android Phones [View article]
    IMO, Android has such a large share because it was the best option for most manufacturers for a while but that is changing and I suspect we will see Android's share shrink in high-end devices if some of the following occurs: WP continues to grow, BB10 catches on and/or is licensed out, Samsung pushes phones with its Tizen OS or manufacturers start focusing more on devices with a newer OS like Firefox or Sailfish.

    I don't think Nokia should jump into Android just because its the biggest right now, the OS has plenty of issues and goes against Nokia's strategy of differentiation. That and the other barriers you mentioned make me think the probability is very small in the near term.
    Mar 12 12:13 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia Is Connecting The Next Billion People [View article]
    Good find, the current management team appears to have a strong vision of where the mobile industry is going and is preparing accordingly. They seem to be on the forefront of all new trends recently, something that couldn't be said a few years ago.
    Mar 11 08:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia To Cell Phone Market - I Will Be Back [View article]
    You said "Last week, Nokia officially announced its cheapest Windows device yet-the Lumia 610-and three new Asha S40 phones." That happened more than a year ago, they have announced an entirely new line of Lumias since then, I don't think you are really "watching the company's performance closely".
    Mar 10 02:05 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Nokia-Microsoft Partnership One Sided? [View article]
    You're forgetting that Nokia also has flexibility in this arrangement. Elop recently said "In the current ecosystem wars we are using Windows Phone as our weapon. But we are always thinking about what's coming next...Today we are committed and satisfied with Microsoft, but anything is possible."

    The relationship is hardly one sided; not only has Microsoft been paying Nokia to use WP8 but Nokia has also saved billions in R&D costs by dropping their own OS. At this point in time WP still needs Nokia more than Nokia needs WP, Microsoft won't do anything to jeopardize the relationship.
    Mar 10 01:11 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia A Buy On Sum Of Parts Valuation [View article]
    Buying MSFT is not a safe way to play Nokia, its just a safer play. If Nokia is wildly successful its stock will appreciate significantly more than Microsoft's and vice versa if Nokia were to fail.

    Also, I don't see Apple buying a low-end Chinese manufacturer, they don't even do their own manufacturing for the iPhone and what would be the point of owning a low-end manufacturer if they aren't going to use the Apple brand? The brand is about the only competitive advantage they have anymore.
    Mar 8 04:18 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia A Buy On Sum Of Parts Valuation [View article]
    @Eld
    Could you elaborate about NSN's free cash flow?

    Nokia's U.S. patents have an average remaining term of 13 years and they continue to be awarded new patents all the time, I think the author's valuation is conservative.

    I think the Author's valuation of Devices and Services is WAY too low, please see my recent article for more details.
    Mar 8 11:00 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia A Buy On Sum Of Parts Valuation [View article]
    I completely agree with your premise about the sum or parts valuation but I have a few issues with how you got there:

    1. The revenue number you quote for Devices and Services is actually just for Smart Devices, the total revenues for Devices and Services is almost 3 times larger.

    2. Why did you use 50% of BBRY's price/sales multiple to value Nokia's phone business? That seems rather arbitrary

    3. Correct me if I'm wrong but it looks like you included the entire value of NSN instead of the 50% Nokia owns.
    Mar 8 10:45 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia Is Connecting The Next Billion People [View article]
    I read that as a longer-term target, not specifically for Q1, but I still expect Q1 margin to be much better than the guidance.
    Mar 7 10:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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