PRO Top Ideas
Top Ideas are high-conviction long or short ideas focused on market mispricings with asymmetric risk/reward profiles.
Xpel Technologies: Wrapping Up A Sticky Model And Hyper Growth Worth Multiples Of Today's Price
- Xpel's growth over the past 4 years is on-par with growth of Wal-Mart post IPO and both have many traits in common.
- Xpel is building its stickiness through an ecosystem of direct distribution, training and DAP cutting software which should give it an edge to maintain high growth.
- Company-owned install shops should provide upside and a method to exploit its direct distribution model internationally.
- Xpel trades at a significant discount due to its obscurity, stock listing and illiquidity and potentially worth multiples of today's price.
- Continued performance, a potential stock uplisting next year and a potential takeover in the mid-term provide catalysts to value creation.
Wizard World: Obscure Marketing Machine Offers Attractive Risk/Reward
- Wizard's convention business is the quintessential low asset high return business.
- Wizard's scale provides barriers to entry in marketing, celebrity draw and attendance.
- Comic cons benefit from continued monetization of superhero assets by movie studios.
- Even with the >70% increase in share price this month, we continue to see at least 46% upside in the near term, limited downside and plenty of optionality.
Bankwell Financial Group: Significantly Undervalued While Outsider CEO Crafts Encore Performance
- Peyton Patterson fits the outsider CEO mold described by William Thorndike and is repeating her success with a much smaller bank.
- The community banking environment is ripe for consolidation in the Connecticut and surrounding areas.
- Mr. Market has been selling BWFG off because of media headlines allowing one to purchase the bank at 1 times tangible book.
- Upcoming catalysts should quickly close the discount to intrinsic value.
Wesco Aircraft Holdings Distributes Attractive Risk/Reward
- Business is characterized by sticky long-term recurring revenues and many competitive advantages.
- Managed by owner operator that has proven to be highly successful over the long term.
- Potential synergies of recent Haas acquisition seem to go under appreciated by the market.
- Protection against capital impairment and significant growth/synergies could produce large gains in the next two years.
Revisiting Idenix: Continues To Have Big Potential With Low Risk/High Reward
- Lawsuit with Gilead over Sovaldi patents could lead to a settlement worth over $1 billion in the next few years.
- Seth Klarman's Baupost has almost doubled their ownership in Idenix and are highly bullish.
- A combination of the net present value of a potential settlement and future drug developments = >400% upside.
- Beneficial Mutual Bancorp: Upcoming 2nd-Step Conversion Offers Dillinger-Esque Returns
- Trinity Place Holdings: Own Prime NYC Real Estate For Next To Nothing
- Julius Baer: Private Bank Transfers Wealth From Rich To Shareholders
- AkzoNobel: Dutch Coating Company With Huge Upside
- Fugro: Surveying Sustainable Value Creation At An Attractive Price
- Forget BlackBerry: Watsa's Resolute Forest Products Investment Gets More Bang For Your Buck
- Weight Watchers: A Wonderful Business For A Great Deal
- Idenix Pharmaceuticals: Potential Multi-Bagger Means Little Risk/High Reward
- Lai Sun Garment International Limited: Quality Real Estate Portfolio Almost For Free
- PostNL Also Delivers Huge Value