Unconventional Wisdom

Unconventional Wisdom
Contributor since: 2013
i had the exact same thought. the share price movement of KMI looks very similar to that of SDRL from Sept-Dec 2014.
Nice article, but I would have liked to see a more in depth analysis comparing CHK and ECA. For instance, how do their underlying assets stack up, and what about debt structure? Which company can sustain their dividend longer at these oil prices?
i agree that steering clear of the ATX is a good idea, but i don't find your case against OMV too convincing. after the drop in oil prices, 1-3 year performance is terrible for most oil & gas companies, for example compare the chart for Exxon and OMV. OMV has a solid dividend and a cash flow to support it going forward. Issues regarding management and libya are already priced-in so a bit of good news could spur a turn-around. imho, for a buy-and-hold investor €25/share with a 5% dividend yield is a good entry.
regardless the source, the unemployment figure is incorrect. according to Statistik Austria unemployment is now 4.9% up from 4.2% in 2011 (http://bit.ly/1B0HdH5).
i think you may have presented youth unemployment
your unemployment numbers are completely off - according to OECD, Austria has an unemployment rate of ca. 4% -- the lowest in the EU. Compared to other EU member states, Austria also boasts the lowest levels of inequality between states, a high savings rate and low house-hold debt.
For those who want to invest in an Austrian company, AT:OMV is a vertically-integrated oil and gas company that has assured investors that the dividend will be paid in May (4.8% yield as of today).
great article! I was recently in Turkey and agree with your insights and conclusions. They say that the time to buy is when other's are fearful- I took this opportunity to by shares of TUR.
can someone explain whether there is any relationship between margin debt and QE. in other words, does the expanding monetary base encourage and/or support higher levels of margin debt?
I'm long Statoil and think that the Norway elections (Sept. 9) can be a positive catalyst not only for Statoil but also for the Norwegian Krone (which is oversold). The reason being, it looks like the more conservative parties may form a government and have more business friendly policies.
well, what is your take on Hutchison Whampoa's (HUWHY.PK) stake in Husky. Does it preclude a takeover? thanks for your comment!
with margin debt at record levels and in combination with the hindenburg omen, I'm feeling quite bearish.
glad to see i'm not the only one!
"be fearful when others are greedy"
the margin debt makes me think greed is back. However, with the global money supply multiplied, what's the new normal for margin debt? can margin debt double or triple the previous records??
the margin debt argument for an upcoming market correction has me up at nights - but can someone please tell me:
how high can margin debt go now that central banks around the world have multiplied the money supply???
fantastic call with UBNT!
interesting article and i think you provide valuable insights, but i still find the bull case for intel more compelling. my personal view is that the world is still becoming more and more computerized and simply put, demand for processors will rise.
Facebook (FB) looks set to be the next company 'propelled to the moon and back'
awesome! when is the IPO for Seeking Alpha!
with the fed now suggesting tapering is near, europe would get the most bang-for-their buck by starting a more aggresive QE program now -- in this scenario, i would short the euro and pick up european equities.
great article - need to bookmark it so i can read it again before i start buying options and 2x short ETFs!!
How do you come up with ArcelorMittal (MT) yieling 5%?
with a yearly gross dividend of 0.20 USD that gives a current yield around 1.7%
even discounting future growth, given the current dividend i think a $40 price target for INTC is reasonable.
indeed, nothing to see here, just a bit of profit taking
so you're saying LinkedIn is a strong buy! i'm loading up!!
options expiry today... just saying
i decided to buy shares of apple today and plan to hold for 1-5 years.
here's why:
-the p/e and yield are attractive (11 and 2%)
-i think apple will grow their dividend (current payout ratio = 6%)
-short term, maybe they will beat q4 estimates
-i think they will make more gadgets that millions of people will buy
intel (INTC) currently has a more attractive schiller p/e (around 14) compared to the broader market and its peers. but its not hard to find the reasons why its valuation is low.
my point being, simply buying when the S&P500 p/e is below historical norms, and being in cash when its above is an oversimplified investment strategy.
to get good returns in today's market (and probably also in past markets) you have to find companies that can grow or become more profitable. now more than ever stock picking is the key to good returns and while schiller p/e's may point investors in the right direction, it is not enough to signal buys or sells.
seems like sound arguments to me! thanks for the analysis.
opened a position in INTC today
what about the key number: ex autos and gas +0.1%
I like the small drilling company Drillcon (based in Sweden, DRIL:STO).
P/E of 6.5 and 3% yield
looking forward I predict that equities drift higher until jackson hole, QE will be withheld thus reigniting euro-zone/fiscal-cliff fears and knocking 10-20% off the market.
i'm curious what others make of this prediction??
i believe it was kyle bass that said interest rates cannot rise, we are at the keynesian endpoint...
the fact is, if rates rise the interest on the debt would be too high therefore rates have to stay low.