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  • Below $0.4, Essex Rental Is A Bargain Based On Liquidation Value [View article]
    Great commentary Strategic. I thought the $15mm discrepancy was odd too. I also agree banks have more of an incentive to keep the Essex side alive, vs foreclosing or liquidating. I've been waiting to see some sort of private placement / equity infusion as well. Casey Capital has been oddly quiet since their proxy fight.... Let's hope they have something up their sleeve.
    Aug 26, 2015. 01:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Below $0.4, Essex Rental Is A Bargain Based On Liquidation Value [View article]
    Well if you look at the press release for the forbearance agreement, they give a total OLV number for the whole company, so it looks like he might've taken a look at Coast too. If you add the drop in Essex OLV to the total company OLV they provided, it comes out somewhere around $330mm I think, which is still $15mm higher than the total OLV number they provided in the Q. I just figured that $15mm increase must be coming from the Coast side.
    Aug 26, 2015. 09:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Below $0.4, Essex Rental Is A Bargain Based On Liquidation Value [View article]
    Agreed. Coast has the value. Although, I get a bit worried seeing their borrowing base availability under $1mm lol
    Aug 25, 2015. 03:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Below $0.4, Essex Rental Is A Bargain Based On Liquidation Value [View article]
    I think the banks are incentivized to keep them alive though. Why force the liquidation and risk impairment when they can just manage them as a going concern? Gotta love those default fees. Most likely why they went for the forbearance. But I do find it odd that they did such a short term agreement. Maybe they expect something to happen before the 11th?
    Aug 25, 2015. 12:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Below $0.4, Essex Rental Is A Bargain Based On Liquidation Value [View article]
    That drop is solely attributed to the Essex Crane subsidiary assets though. It actually looks like the appraiser valued Coast Crane's assets about $30mm higher than in the last Q.
    Aug 24, 2015. 01:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hennessy Advisors: Growth At Value Prices With Earnings Surprise [View article]
    Great article Adib! What are your thoughts on the company's recent tender offer? Looks like a pretty decent chunk, so you'd think management must believe shares are undervalued.
    Aug 21, 2015. 01:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Below $0.4, Essex Rental Is A Bargain Based On Liquidation Value [View article]
    Nice work!

    I've been buying the whole way down. Makes no sense at all. Even Coast Crane alone is worth close to triple the market cap in liquidation. No cross-collateralization even bolsters the argument further.
    Aug 11, 2015. 12:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sprott Resource Corp.: Heads, I Win; Tails, I Win Even More? [View article]
    If SRC is able to monetize their stake, at the valuation Maple is paying, that would be quite a windfall for them, seeing as I have them going bankrupt in my worst case scenario. Although, I think the most important part here is that the proceeds are going to be used to pay down debt, which should (hopefully) alleviate my concerns about bankruptcy within the year. Either way, this increases my value of Long Run
    Aug 4, 2015. 11:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sprott Resource Corp.: Heads, I Win; Tails, I Win Even More? [View article]
    I don't believe its a tender. SRC just said they'd vote in favor of the shares being issued to Maple. The high price paid for the shares should probably offset the dilution to Sprott. Plus, its always good to see a boost of confidence like this from another company.
    Aug 4, 2015. 11:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sprott Resource Corp.: Heads, I Win; Tails, I Win Even More? [View article]
    Nothing jumped out at me. Glad they FINALLY gave some color on RII. I couldn't find anything on them before. Good to hear there is some extra value there. Rather have them understate the asset vs overstate it.

    I'm torn on the buyback program. They really have no cash to do it. They'd have to draw on the revolver to do anything sizable. Really hope the can sell UAG in the 2nd half and get some extra cash. They're behind schedule on this though, and its somewhat weak performance doesn't help. Might take longer than expected.

    It's good to hear the deal flow is strong, but they'll need some extra funding to do anything. No better time than now to buy distressed assets though.
    Jul 27, 2015. 08:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sprott Resource Corp.: Heads, I Win; Tails, I Win Even More? [View article]
    I'm no expert when it comes to guessing commodity prices. It's hard to tell. But when oil and coal are at levels where prices are barely above the cost of production, it's hard to imagine things getting much worse. Then again, it might take a few big players going bankrupt, and an extreme decrease in supply before things turn around. I think coal is closer to this point than oil and gas.
    Jul 17, 2015. 10:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sprott Resource Corp.: Heads, I Win; Tails, I Win Even More? [View article]
    SPOXF is Sprott Inc. It's essentially the parent 'Sprott' company. That's who SRC pays its management fees too
    Jul 17, 2015. 10:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sprott Resource Corp.: Heads, I Win; Tails, I Win Even More? [View article]
    Hi Geoffrut,

    Thanks for the commentary. Always appreciate it on tricky companies like this.

    I did back out SRC's outstanding debt in my valuation, which lowered their EV by the $12mm or so that's outstanding.

    While I agree that the company's calculation of NAV is rich, my bear case scenario incorporates a worse case scenario for each investment happening all at the exact same time. It's much more likely that a few end up doing better than expected, and the company trades high.

    I don't believe it's purely speculating on oil & gas prices going higher as well. Oil & gas prices can remain completely flat and SRC would still appreciate in value if for instance: OEF continued to grow due to demand in Organic & Natural foods, ICD was able to maintain utilization even in a terrible pricing environment, or Corsa is able to grow by consolidating the coal industry as competitors go bankrupt.

    While SRC would certainly benefit from increased oil & gas prices, their value isn't completely tied to that industry, and they could benefit from success in their other investments.

    Thanks again for the commentary. Great points.
    Jul 16, 2015. 09:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sprott Resource Corp.: Heads, I Win; Tails, I Win Even More? [View article]
    Let's hope so! I have a feeling it will be harder for management to sell then they think. Hopefully we'll get some good news soon.
    Jul 16, 2015. 02:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sprott Resource Corp.: Heads, I Win; Tails, I Win Even More? [View article]
    Thanks for the comments Ken.

    I see what you mean regarding the NAV. Yes, it's definitely trading at the highest gap in its history, but I think that's primarily because some of the company's valuations on its investments (particularly InPlay and OEOG) are a bit lofty. If they were to lower the pricing tables they used in the reserve supplement, that should probably chop a good chunk off their value. Some others probably warrant a discount as well. I'm curious to see if the make any changes to their valuations in Q2.

    UAG is certainly tricky. I tried to dig into them a good amount, but could barely find anything. I'm really curious as to why they backed off their previous IPO. Them going public right now would be a fantastic thing for SRC. Let's hope the mutual funds' valuations on UAG aren't too off the mark either. I knew they have been trying to sell their stake for awhile, so hopefully there's not some negative reason as to why they haven't sold it yet (losing money certainly wouldn't help).

    I definitely had a good laugh trying to value those cows!!! In all seriousness though, I think OEF could be huge for them if they pull it off right. It's definitely a growing, and very hard industry to break into, due to all the regulations around Natural and Organic. I think that will play out very well for them in the future.

    Thanks again,

    UB
    Jul 15, 2015. 07:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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