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  • Essex Rental: Another Score For Activism [View article]
    Thanks for the update bud. Hopefully we start seeing some change. I had forgot to ask before, but does Casey Capital have a track record with activism like this? Curious to see if they favor sales versus long term improvement.
    Jun 6, 2015. 03:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Special Diversified Opportunities: Buying Upside For Free [View article]
    No update as of now. My guess is that something would happen sometime during the second half of the year.
    May 29, 2015. 11:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CafePress's Depressed Stock Price Presents Opportunity [View article]
    I didn't see everything included in their calculation, such as the $2.5mm charge on disposal of assets. I went off of the CF statement to really see where their cash is going. Plus the D&A on a CF basis is higher than what they use in their EBITDA calculation
    May 7, 2015. 11:07 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CafePress's Depressed Stock Price Presents Opportunity [View article]
    I don't think it's that high. I'm looking at around $5-$7mm annually. They have a few non-cash items that should boost your number. CapEx seems somewhat flexible as well. A good chunk is probably growth related vs. maintenance.

    I'm more concerned that their annual loss could grow and accelerate the cash burn. Depends on how variable their cost structure is, and how proprietary the business is. Seems to me anyone can print shirts, but if they have various licensing agreements with brands (i.e. Marvel) that are hard to get, that's a different story.
    May 7, 2015. 10:52 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CafePress's Depressed Stock Price Presents Opportunity [View article]
    Any idea on what the annual cash burn for these guys will look like?

    Also, how exclusive are the licensing partnerships that the company has? Do competitors have similar agreements, or is Cafepress the only company with these kinds of arrangements?

    Just trying to get an idea of how 'sticky' and defensible the company's business model is vs. a competitor's.
    May 7, 2015. 08:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Knight Therapeutics: Minimal Downside For This Misunderstood Company [View article]
    Think of it like a BDC. Part of their cash is invested in various high-yield loans. You wouldn't subtract the amount they invest in loans from cash because at maturity they'll get repaid their principal (assuming no defaults).

    So, they'll get the cash flow streams from their investments (which I valued separately), and their entirety of their principal back at maturity.
    Apr 2, 2015. 01:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Special Diversified Opportunities: Buying Upside For Free [View article]
    They've performed pretty well. Made some sizable changes in companies they've taken activist positions on.

    I don't have any recent performance numbers, but here's a dated article to give you a bit of background on them:

    http://on.wsj.com/1oAw380

    I believe they were up 90% since inception at the time of the article, and they had only been around for a few years prior.
    Mar 31, 2015. 03:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Special Diversified Opportunities: Buying Upside For Free [View article]
    Thanks Robin!
    Mar 31, 2015. 12:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Essex Rental: Technical Default Masks Massive Value; Triple-Digit Returns Possible [View article]
    I'll have to read through the VIC write-up when its available. Still working on getting accepted. Hopefully second times a charm?

    I still need to read through the credit agreement as well (also a credit guy).

    My only other question I have for now is on the capex. I noticed they break it out by maintenance and replacement. Wouldn't replacement capex be pretty much the same as maintenance (as in Buffett's definition of maintenance capex)? If so, then pretty much all of their capex is just for maintenance purposes, which effectively eats up all their cash flow. I'm not as familiar with these guys are you are obviously (still need to read a lot more), but just wanted to see if I'm thinking about it right.

    Thanks for the answers!
    Mar 20, 2015. 02:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Essex Rental: Technical Default Masks Massive Value; Triple-Digit Returns Possible [View article]
    Excellent article.

    Don't see too many of these well written, special situations on SA.

    I just had a few questions: any idea on when/if Essex is expected to get the waiver from the banks?

    Secondly, with the possibilities that the Fed may raise rates at some point this year, do you still feel comfortable that the company will be able to refi? I'd imagine market liquidity would begin dry up a bit, and it looks like a lot of companies are active in the market in the first part of the year hoping to beat the increase. I'm not sure if this is something they're working on along with waiver. I'd figure it'd be quite hard to sell cranes if the market took a turn for the worst as well.

    Lastly, could you elaborate on what the company's equity would look like in a liquidation scenario? I was just interested in seeing how you came to your conclusion that shareholder's equity wouldn't be wiped out.

    Again, great article!
    Mar 20, 2015. 11:07 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SIGA Technologies: Uncovering Hidden Value In Bankruptcy [View article]
    I talked about this in my comment above. I see it more as a temporary issue, than an impediment to the articles thesis.
    Mar 14, 2015. 06:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SIGA Technologies: Uncovering Hidden Value In Bankruptcy [View article]
    For those curious, I posted an update at the top of this article.
    Mar 12, 2015. 10:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SIGA Technologies: Uncovering Hidden Value In Bankruptcy [View article]
    I have yet to see anything.

    I've been following the bankruptcy docs and the comments above, and plan on writing in update in the next week or two as it gets closer to the next court date, and following PIP's release of Q4 earnings.
    Mar 5, 2015. 12:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Spin-Off NOW, Inc: Market Leadership, Experienced Management, And Pristine Balance Sheet Point To Compounding Value [View article]
    I'd be curious to hear your thoughts on the above comment as well. Allan Mecham's Arlington Value took a big stake in DNOW in Q4 probably following the stock drop. He has a very concentrated portfolio so it's interesting to see him take a stake in this.
    Feb 25, 2015. 12:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SIGA Technologies: Uncovering Hidden Value In Bankruptcy [View article]
    On the revenue side, as of Q3 the company has delivered 1.3mm courses for a total of $136.8mm. The contract has as total face value of $463mm. So if you back out the $136.8mm they received for deliveries so far, the $61.5mm in milestone payments, and the $102.5mm saved for FDA approval, you have $162.2mm left over which they should receive from the FDA application and the remaining deliveries.

    On the costs side, this seems to be something we disagree on. Regarding the deferred costs, you have to dig a little deeper. First off, why would a company use such a complex, yet legal way to account for revenues received from the BARDA contract? They're obviously getting paid for the deliveries, so it's not like there's a serious chance that they won't receive these revenues. My initial thought was they were intentionally making themselves look bad. If you've followed the PharmAthene case since it started, you'll have seen that at one point in time, the court ruled that SIGA would pay PharmAthene an "equitable payment stream", before this lump sum amount ever came into play. Essentially the court said SIGA would have to pay PharmAthene 50% of the profits from ST-246, after it received its first $40mm in profits. So what does SIGA do? They come up with this ridiculous accounting scheme to make themselves look like they consistently lose money. If they're constantly losing money, they don't have to pay PharmAthene! They didn't put this deferred revenue/cost thing in place because they don't believe they'll be reimbursed in the future, they did it to make themselves look like a big-time money loser on purpose. Ah the wonders of GAAP accounting. Remember Ron Perelman essentially controls this company. I'm sure he and his M&F buddies sat down and figured out this scheme to avoid paying anything. Just look at the stuff he did with Revlon. This may be slimy, but its legal. I'm still going to stick to my guns here and say that they'll still be reimbursed going forward.
    Feb 11, 2015. 12:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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