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Urban Jaekle

 
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  • Questions The Nokia Board Of Directors Need To Answer [View article]
    I ask myself: if the deal would be so good for Microsoft and Nokia would loose so much: Why then did Microsofts stock price go down on the announcement of the deal while Nokia gained 40% that day?

    Keep in mind that MSFT has lots of cash and can easily afford the Nokia mobile business. Should not go MSFT-stock up if the Devices (Lumia 1020) will soon sell like hotcakes and MSFT got the business for half the price of Motorola?
    Sep 6 09:13 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Questions The Nokia Board Of Directors Need To Answer [View article]
    The best article since the deal was announced!
    Sep 6 08:29 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia Presents Upside To Those With A Stomach [View article]
    Redrud. Thank you for this masterpiece!
    Main point in my opinion: NSN is a winner! Very cheap but very successful, and restructuring is nearly done, Siemens out and Nokia can control it better to make it more successful, spin off etc. To buy the second half shows how much confidence Nokia has in its business despite bad cash situation. Keep in mind: This year Nokia was thrown out of EuroStoxx etc. but the stock only was temporarily hit. This shows strength. If it climbs over $5 many funds will buy it and it will soon hit $7. Long Nokia.
    Jul 31 04:11 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quo Vadis, Nokia? [View article]
    NSN is damn cheap compared to Ericsson (http://bit.ly/12L9wX5).
    $5 billion (NSN) vs. $40 billion (Ericsson).

    Long Nokia!
    Jul 24 07:03 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quo Vadis, Nokia? [View article]
    The NSN deal was the best that could happen to Nokia. The will control the NSN business alone, recstructuring is done. And it is valued only with about € 4 billions. Note that Ericsson is valued €29 billions and has now phone business (with patents etc.). Once the NSN deal is fixed, Nokia will have many more options and NSN will going to be profitable since the whole world wants bandwidth, bandwidth, bandwidth
    Long Nokia: NSN is the winner and Lumias are coming faster and fester, getting better and better. Forget the feature phones in the long run.
    Jul 24 07:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Forum On Nokia, Covering NSN, HERE, IP, And General Discussion. [View instapost]
    Elizabeth Doherty: This is nothing new! See Nokia`s report on general Meeting vom 24.01.2013: http://bit.ly/Z0dfNk

    New is this: Florian Seiche changes from HTC to Nokia!!!! (since the Indian head of emeging markets sales had been fired (because of tax affair???)

    http://tchno.be/Z0dg3y
    Mar 30 03:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forum On Nokia's Mobile Devices [View instapost]
    OldWarrier: 8 mio would be a dream $$$. But from AdDuplex I can see only 4 Mio to 6 Mio, depending on how many WP8s they sold in Q4 2012! Anybody has an idea how many???
    Mar 29 09:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forum On Nokia, Covering NSN, HERE, IP, And General Discussion. [View instapost]
    Seppo, you got it right. Nokia threw him out and Siemens forced them to take him back... Not a good sign of a good partnership. So it will end definitely soon - I guess it will be announced in April!
    Nokia can buy NSN completely only , if they raise further capital- my opinion (issue more bonds/ and or a share dilution). And NSN will be brought to stock market as a new company later - I guess. Short term this is pressure for Nokia but long-term it is good (especially if Smarthphone businees gets profitable); but Nokia becomes a takeover target then...
    @Solucky: If NSN is really a cashcow..., it will become more expensive to buy? (Siemens is not stupid, either?)
    Mar 29 09:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Forum On Nokia, Covering NSN, HERE, IP, And General Discussion. [View instapost]
    it is great to see the relative strength of the Nokia bonds:
    http://bit.ly/14zdrek
    1) This shows that the NSN bond will be no problem to issue
    2) this shows that the stocks decline is due to massive short selling, pure speculation. The truth is in the bonds. Just my opinion.

    About Siemens: Yes, they will exit, quite sure- it was discussed in various german newspapers. The question is: What price does Nokias have to pay= Who will be the partner? I really don't have a good opinion about Alcatel-Lucent as a new partner- just my feeling. Nokia alone won't have enough cash? What are your opinions?
    Mar 28 04:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Nokia Hand Over Fist [View article]
    Great article! When talking about NSN and a possible spinn-off, it is worth to mention that NSN will issue a bond (800 mio Euros or $? don't have a link at hand) for about 7% to institutional investors. Since the yield of existing bonds is only 5,55% http://bit.ly/YIvbN5, the placement will 99% be successful. This will be a major step towards spinn-off. And look at the Nokia-bonds themselves- while the stock corrected a lot, bonds are near their highs- a really good sign!
    Mar 27 10:25 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forum On Nokia's Mobile Devices [View instapost]
    Sorry, I posted it first in the wrong place (at NSN, Here etc.)
    How many Lumia WP8 devices sold in Q1 2013? In Q4 2012 it were 4,4 Mio Lumias + 2,2 Mio Symbians and Nokia was profitable in this section. So lets check what to estimate this quarter.
    Therefore I made a rough estimation based on AdDuplex Statistics: http://bit.ly/10L8LyD

    Lets start with a summary of all WP7-devices:

    Q4 2011 = 1 Mio WP 7 Devices
    http://bit.ly/10bk0fS
    Q1 2012 = 3,3 Mio
    http://bit.ly/10L8nA6
    Q2 2012 = 4 Mio
    http://tnw.co/10bk0fU
    Q3 2012 = 2,9 Mio
    http://bit.ly/10L8nAa

    Q4 2012 = 2,5 mio WP7? (Total: 4,4 mio Lumias, but how many WP7 and how many WP8???)

    Q1 2013, so far, until March 4th 2013 (that is the date of the latest AdDuplex Statistics) 1 Mio WP7?

    Total:
    =14,7 Millionen WP 7 Smartphones = 51% of total Windows Phones
    This means that 22% Lumia WP8 phones are 6,34 Mio

    If we assume that from this number 1,9 Mio were sold in Q4-12- this leaves 4,4 Mio for this quarter until March 4th.

    Until end of March this would be easily more than 5 Mio Lumia WP8. Together with the WP7 phones (+ some Symbians, unimportant) Nokia would top the last quarter while Elop has warned about "a seasonally weak quarter". So there could be a positive surprise ahead!
    Some questions remain: 1) How many Lumia WP8 phones in Q4 2012?
    2) What do analysts expect from this quarter about Lumia Sales?
    (I read 5 Mio above: Is this optimistic?)
    3) How accurate are AdDuplex numbers?
    Mar 26 03:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forum On Nokia, Covering NSN, HERE, IP, And General Discussion. [View instapost]
    How many Lumia WP8 devices sold in Q1 2013? In Q4 2012 it were 4,4 Mio Lumias + 2,2 Mio Symbians and Nokia was profitable in this section. So lets check what to estimate this quarter.
    Therefore I made a rough estimation based on AdDuplex Statistics: http://bit.ly/10L8LyD

    Lets start with a summary of all WP7-devices:

    Q4 2011 = 1 Mio WP 7 Devices
    http://bit.ly/10bk0fS
    Q1 2012 = 3,3 Mio
    http://bit.ly/10L8nA6
    Q2 2012 = 4 Mio
    http://tnw.co/10bk0fU
    Q3 2012 = 2,9 Mio
    http://bit.ly/10L8nAa

    Q4 2012 = 2,5 mio WP7? (Total: 4,4 mio Lumias, but how many WP7 and how many WP8???)

    Q1 2013, so far, until March 4th 2013 (that is the date of the latest AdDuplex Statistics) 1 Mio WP7?

    Total:
    =14,7 Millionen WP 7 Smartphones = 51% of total Windows Phones
    This means that 22% Lumia WP8 phones are 6,34 Mio

    If we assume that from this number 1,9 Mio were sold in Q4-12- this leaves 4,4 Mio for this quarter until March 4th.

    Until end of March this would be easily more than 5 Mio Lumia WP8. Together with the WP7 phones (+ some Symbians, unimportant) Nokia would top the last quarter while Elop has warned about "a seasonally weak quarter". So there could be a positive surprise ahead!
    Some questions remain: 1) How many Lumia WP8 phones in Q4 2012?
    2) What do analysts expect from this quarter about Lumia Sales?
    3) How accurate are AdDuplex numbers?
    Mar 26 01:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Has Taken A Licking, But Will Keep On Ticking [View article]
    George, it is a great article- thanks.
    I disagree however with one point "but shouldn't investors focus more on what firms like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley say, that have a much bigger market footprint?". From my experience with Nokia I know that these firms- maybe all bigger players (Credit suisse, Dt. Bank as well?) give recommendations often opposite to their positions. So while giving "sell" recommendations to Nokia, they own the stock. My conclusion: Ignore their recommendations completely- look what they do instead (e.g. here in case of Nokia: http://bit.ly/YMvju3 for BBRY I don't know why it's not here- probably you guys have a link?!)
    Mar 23 03:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia To Produce Solar Powered Lumia? [View article]
    We had this discussion today in our german forum http://bit.ly/Y1ViC7. Our conclusion was: Nice marketing idea but not very realistic to give Nokia an edge. It will maybe save some power but not much. Usually the smartphone is in your pocket =no sun. And solar panels (in this case a small solar layer behind the screen) are not very effective in producing a high energy/time. Biggest effect: Marketing as an innovative company (like Graphene etc.)
    Mar 21 02:20 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Interest For Nokia Is At An All-Time High [View article]
    "Established: 2012"
    http://bit.ly/Xnx3hY
    Later it was written "beginning of 2013", then I thought, ok, May, June 2013, and now... "second half". You are right, maybe it was never explicitly mentioned by Nokia.
    Mar 19 02:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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