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  • Retrophin Needs Some Retro Pricing [View article]
    This is one of those instances where value in comments section is 1000 times that of the article.

    Let me add to what others have added:

    1) What Retrophin is trying to do is to create a M&A vehicle (platform) to acquire and market Orphan and/or Ultra orphan drugs. This platform is more valuable than sum total of individual products. Look at what VRX is doing.
    2) Combining revenue producing drugs with R&D pipeline reduces risk. Even if you fail on all your pipeline, the former will sustain the market cap. It also reduces need for capital raise and dilution.
    3) A big premium needs to be added for management's experience and methodical approach. They are trying to replicate BMRN success and will surely succeed. They are showing a lot of discipline by not overpaying.
    4) The most foolish analysis of all: NPV=price paid (as asset is marked to market)..

    A shrewd management creates value thereby producing IRR>0. RTRX mgmt creates value by raising prices, improving distribution to patients (earlier pt's had hard time getting the drug), working with pt's insurance co's, providing co-pay assistance, working on new indications... By author's logic, Buffett added no value by buying Geico, VRX added no value when they acquired Bausch and Lomb, ...
    Jun 22, 2015. 06:25 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Strange Situation At Retrophin Becomes Even More Bizarre [View article]
    Yes, he had tweeted that he used that $ to fund Turing pharma. He claims to have made 25 times on his investment. We can confirm it when we see Turing IPO.
    May 27, 2015. 10:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Strange Situation At Retrophin Becomes Even More Bizarre [View article]
    Not trolling. I was worried about your well being. Your articles have tremendous value to people who have already done their DD.

    I'm looking forward to reading your articles. Good luck and Godspeed.
    May 27, 2015. 10:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Strange Situation At Retrophin Becomes Even More Bizarre [View article]
    Are you still short? Hope you also exited your oil longs HK, BHI, RIG, UAN, SDRL, EXXI, TLM, MILL, BBEP, CHK, CLF, MSB, SWN, OGZPY?
    May 27, 2015. 01:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Perspective On The Disconnect Between Company And Stock Performance [View instapost]
    Georgie

    I'm glad SA didn't publish this article to maintain a higher standard. I hate to criticize a fellow long. I'm doing it for your own good.

    1) Your title is chosen poorly.
    2) For MNKD, Company performance now is all about sales. Sales have been lackluster and so is stock. This is the cause and effect. There is no disconnect here.
    3) Shorts have envisioned the scenario better, about impact of soft launch, dilution etc. So they have played their cards better.
    4) You talk about supply and demand , but forget to mention about convertibles. This is coming due and we may see dilution. So both key words "dilution/stock issuance" and "convertibles" are missing in your article.
    5) Do you have proof that MNKD short sellers have lost money in aggregate?
    Apr 29, 2015. 11:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind Corporation: A Good Risk/Reward Play For The Long Haul [View article]
    So many words, yet you add so little to the discussion.
    Apr 24, 2015. 09:54 PM | 28 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • That Was Quick! Our First Premium Author Hits $200,000 In Annual Revenue [View article]
    First Congratulations to Chris. Chris deserves the kudos for his dedication, drive and intellect. I see some posters getting jealous , they should rather be inspired.

    I like the SA idea and this is free market at its finest.
    Apr 21, 2015. 04:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Bull Market Isn't Over Yet! [View article]
    Thanks for the comments pointing to cases where bear market happened without Fed involvement. my refutation

    1) These happened 60 years ago when Fed wasn't proactive, in control of economy, or didn't have the policy tools
    2) Current economy (last 3 decades) is Fed driven, Fed controlled. Fed has a tight leash on economy.
    3) Financial sector acts in unison with Fed. Actions of market participants have been tuned to act in accordance with Fed. Low interest rates encourage PE firms to load up debt and acquire co's (kind of interest rate arb). This boosts market valuations. Risk taking is encouraged. If an asset produces 8%, it is profitable if you can borrow at 3%. Simple as that.
    Low interest rate boosts economy (consumers - less interest expense, home owners - refinancing, corp - less debt expense, refinance debt, easy junk bond issuance, ..). Everyone benefits. Even the bond holders, lower rates boosts bond prices. the folks having savings/checking are screwed, but who cares.

    In short, Fed got a stranglehold of US economy's balls. 50-60 years ago, Fed didn't know where the balls were, or didn't know how to squeeze it.

    This is my theory.
    Apr 21, 2015. 12:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Bull Market Isn't Over Yet! [View article]
    The P/E analysis is somewhat dubious. There is Shiller CAPE that shows some usefulness. What is defined as E has changed a lot over years.

    Jesse Livermore has done wonderful work fixing this
    http://bit.ly/1wgGQZh
    Apr 21, 2015. 11:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Bull Market Isn't Over Yet! [View article]
    Great comment and I concur to an extent. I cannot predict what is going to happen short term, but I think we'll see highs before tightening occurs
    Apr 21, 2015. 09:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Bull Market Isn't Over Yet! [View article]
    Great, do you have any proof of your assertion? Why don't you write an article that shows market participants voluntarily exit out when valuations are too high? I would love to read that
    Apr 20, 2015. 10:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Bull Market Isn't Over Yet! [View article]
    you are not living up to your moniker. Take a look at last several cycles. For first several rate hikes market continues to ramp higher. Only in later hikes, it goes into braking mode.
    Apr 20, 2015. 03:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Recent IPO With A Medical Breakthrough For Blindness Worth Billions [View article]
    I'm long with a small position. So many things have to work right for investors to make money. You need to apply a higher discounting rate to compensate for risk.

    I'm getting 26% interest rate through Fidelity's stock yield program. This is one reason why I'm long. I like Al Mann's vision.
    Apr 14, 2015. 12:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind Valuation Scenarios [View article]
    You are misreading the table. $15 (discounted at 20%) for 60%/5 years is in today's dollars. In future value, it is $37. All numbers in 2nd table are today's dollars. I compare today's NPV with current stock price.

    I'm giving a model to all bulls and bears to use this table to suit their greed and fear. Achieving 60% market share in 5 years is a momentous task. I'm not taking a stance on what Afrezza is worth!!!!!

    If I gave round price target of $40 in 5 years, everyone would have gone home happy.
    Apr 2, 2015. 10:22 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind Valuation Scenarios [View article]
    You are preaching to the choir. Read my old articles that look so prescient now.

    1) http://bit.ly/1C9RbTE

    2) http://bit.ly/1C9RbTH

    3) http://bit.ly/1C9RbTE

    4) http://bit.ly/1C9RaPw
    Apr 1, 2015. 03:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
128 Comments
195 Likes