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  • MannKind Corporation: A Good Risk/Reward Play For The Long Haul [View article]
    So many words, yet you add so little to the discussion.
    Apr 24, 2015. 09:54 PM | 27 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • That Was Quick! Our First Premium Author Hits $200,000 In Annual Revenue [View article]
    First Congratulations to Chris. Chris deserves the kudos for his dedication, drive and intellect. I see some posters getting jealous , they should rather be inspired.

    I like the SA idea and this is free market at its finest.
    Apr 21, 2015. 04:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Bull Market Isn't Over Yet! [View article]
    Thanks for the comments pointing to cases where bear market happened without Fed involvement. my refutation

    1) These happened 60 years ago when Fed wasn't proactive, in control of economy, or didn't have the policy tools
    2) Current economy (last 3 decades) is Fed driven, Fed controlled. Fed has a tight leash on economy.
    3) Financial sector acts in unison with Fed. Actions of market participants have been tuned to act in accordance with Fed. Low interest rates encourage PE firms to load up debt and acquire co's (kind of interest rate arb). This boosts market valuations. Risk taking is encouraged. If an asset produces 8%, it is profitable if you can borrow at 3%. Simple as that.
    Low interest rate boosts economy (consumers - less interest expense, home owners - refinancing, corp - less debt expense, refinance debt, easy junk bond issuance, ..). Everyone benefits. Even the bond holders, lower rates boosts bond prices. the folks having savings/checking are screwed, but who cares.

    In short, Fed got a stranglehold of US economy's balls. 50-60 years ago, Fed didn't know where the balls were, or didn't know how to squeeze it.

    This is my theory.
    Apr 21, 2015. 12:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Bull Market Isn't Over Yet! [View article]
    The P/E analysis is somewhat dubious. There is Shiller CAPE that shows some usefulness. What is defined as E has changed a lot over years.

    Jesse Livermore has done wonderful work fixing this
    Apr 21, 2015. 11:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Bull Market Isn't Over Yet! [View article]
    Great comment and I concur to an extent. I cannot predict what is going to happen short term, but I think we'll see highs before tightening occurs
    Apr 21, 2015. 09:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Bull Market Isn't Over Yet! [View article]
    Great, do you have any proof of your assertion? Why don't you write an article that shows market participants voluntarily exit out when valuations are too high? I would love to read that
    Apr 20, 2015. 10:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Bull Market Isn't Over Yet! [View article]
    you are not living up to your moniker. Take a look at last several cycles. For first several rate hikes market continues to ramp higher. Only in later hikes, it goes into braking mode.
    Apr 20, 2015. 03:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Recent IPO With A Medical Breakthrough For Blindness Worth Billions [View article]
    I'm long with a small position. So many things have to work right for investors to make money. You need to apply a higher discounting rate to compensate for risk.

    I'm getting 26% interest rate through Fidelity's stock yield program. This is one reason why I'm long. I like Al Mann's vision.
    Apr 14, 2015. 12:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind Valuation Scenarios [View article]
    You are misreading the table. $15 (discounted at 20%) for 60%/5 years is in today's dollars. In future value, it is $37. All numbers in 2nd table are today's dollars. I compare today's NPV with current stock price.

    I'm giving a model to all bulls and bears to use this table to suit their greed and fear. Achieving 60% market share in 5 years is a momentous task. I'm not taking a stance on what Afrezza is worth!!!!!

    If I gave round price target of $40 in 5 years, everyone would have gone home happy.
    Apr 2, 2015. 10:22 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind Valuation Scenarios [View article]
    You are preaching to the choir. Read my old articles that look so prescient now.




    Apr 1, 2015. 03:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind Valuation Scenarios [View article]
    If you are a T2 and are already on RAA, your numbers are already included in current $6BB market. If you are on T2/basal and not on RAA, then you'll fall under the potential growth rate that is assumed.

    If you are T2 with OAD only, then starting on Afrezza is a paradigm shift ( I know spiro had done it. He is an outlier to me). If I see lots of T2 starting with OAD/AFrezza before basal, then I'll change some of my assumptions and arrive at higher NPV.

    What I've dismissed is this T2's starting with Afrezza first or with OAD/Afrezza before basal. We've interviewed nurses/docs and at the moment they are not too receptive. Show some trials, hard facts, then they'll change.
    Apr 1, 2015. 01:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind Valuation Scenarios [View article]
    If you have read some articles on my blog, you would know that I've read every single pubmed and other publication articles on Afrezza. I view Afrezza as a game changer and Technosphere as a potential platform. For biotechs I use 20%, for co's like Berkshire I'll use a reduced %.

    The Op losses are sunk cost. Given Sanofi's involvement, I think further massive dilutions are unlikely.
    Apr 1, 2015. 01:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind Valuation Scenarios [View article]

    I have not analyzed PBYI. They don't have any approved drugs. I don't know when they start producing revenue. I would not even attempt to analyze this firm. I've followed MNKD for several years, interviewed CEO, endos, pcp's, trial patients, current patients etc. I've some idea what MNKD is worth.

    Thanks for all your enthusiastic feedback.
    Apr 1, 2015. 01:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind Valuation Scenarios [View article]
    Please read my comment at the end.
    Apr 1, 2015. 10:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind Valuation Scenarios [View article]
    First let me give some pointers to hoi polloi on NPV and discount rate.

    When I invest, I expect to make 20% return, this is arbitrary. I like to do better than the market and have done it for the most part. I don't aim for 10% and get 8%.

    Now if I have a project that gives me a payoff of $6000 in 8 years, and I've to pay $1000 now, is it a good deal? If you dont apply time value of money, risk etc, you take the deal as it is a 6 bagger.

    I like to make 20% return at the least and would discount the $6000 to current price. That gives me $1395. To the financial naive person, it'll appear as if I'm saying that my $1000 becomes $1395 in 8 years. They get agitated and mad. The way I use $1395 is, that the NPV is more than $1000. So it is a good deal. It is a good deal until NPV = $1000, in this case I end up getting 20%. Anything above $1000 NPV, I make more than 20%. In this example above, I make 25% return.

    Many have asked why I didn't give the Future value. What is the point in that? I can't compare if I'm making 20% or more return by comparing a FV to current price. If I got a FV of $3059, then it doesn't tell me that my return is only 15% (which is below my expected 20%). The discount rate is my expected return.

    Those who seek alpha and have some knowledge of finance will intuitively understand what I'm trying to do. I've six figures investment in MNKD, which is more than what most posters have invested.

    In the green cell given, the $6.x NPV is more than current price. So in my world, I'll try to get 20%+ and some upside options for free. Kapish?
    Apr 1, 2015. 10:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment