Comments on Utkarsh V. Koregaonkar's articles RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/author/utkarsh-v-koregaonkar/articles http://seekingalpha.com/article/85979-india-s-strong-growth-should-continue?source=feed#comment-217141 217141 Tue, 29 Jul 2008 06:23:33 -0400
There IS a scam in the market!

EXPERTS like this author and 2 Vikrams promoting their sites and questionable expertise.
Would do well to get a reality check here:

indiaplay.blogspot.com/


]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85979-india-s-strong-growth-should-continue?source=feed#comment-214673 214673 Fri, 25 Jul 2008 15:50:15 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/85979-india-s-strong-growth-should-continue?source=feed#comment-212579 212579 Wed, 23 Jul 2008 14:38:26 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/85979-india-s-strong-growth-should-continue?source=feed#comment-212085 212085 Wed, 23 Jul 2008 04:06:51 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/85979-india-s-strong-growth-should-continue?source=feed#comment-212004 212004 Tue, 22 Jul 2008 22:58:09 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/85979-india-s-strong-growth-should-continue?source=feed#comment-211955 211955 Tue, 22 Jul 2008 21:15:23 -0400 So commentors do not waste your time, do not critisize India & take advantage of India's opportunities & prosper. Good luck.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85979-india-s-strong-growth-should-continue?source=feed#comment-211943 211943 >The GDP growth estimate by the central bank has now been >>revised to 7.5% vs. an assumption of 8.5%. >>It is very attractive if you compare the following growth forecasts: >>US: 1.3%, Europe: 1.5%, Japan: 0.7%, This stupid statement I hear all the time - Has anyone actually compared the $$ amount tied to 7.5% vs $$$$$ amount to 1.3% in US!! My company grew 100% this year, my revenue went from 100K to 200K. While my friends company grew only 10% but his revenues grew 50 million to 55 million. Where did real money go ? in 100K or 5 million ? Further no point comparing to JAPAN, India has 1 billion people and the aspiring consumer list for cars, real estate, foreign goods etc is only growing everyday like China, and not compressing as in US / Europe and Japan. Std of living is already high in West! More people in India/China become richer every few years who can now afford luxury goods, while in the West it is saturated and cyclical, people start reducing consumption of big and small ticket items during downturns. That is why India/China are considered emerging growth markets.. ]]> Tue, 22 Jul 2008 21:04:22 -0400 >The GDP growth estimate by the central bank has now been >>revised to 7.5% vs. an assumption of 8.5%.
>>It is very attractive if you compare the following growth forecasts: >>US: 1.3%, Europe: 1.5%, Japan: 0.7%,
This stupid statement I hear all the time - Has anyone actually compared the $$ amount tied to 7.5% vs $$$$$ amount
to 1.3% in US!! My company grew 100% this year, my revenue went from 100K to 200K. While my friends company grew only 10% but his revenues grew 50 million to 55 million. Where did real money go ? in 100K or 5 million ?

Further no point comparing to JAPAN, India has 1 billion people and the aspiring consumer list for cars, real estate, foreign goods etc is only growing everyday like China, and not compressing as in US / Europe and Japan. Std of living is already high in West! More people in India/China become richer every few years who can now afford luxury goods, while in the West it is saturated and cyclical, people start reducing consumption of big and small ticket items during downturns. That is why India/China are considered emerging growth markets..



]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85979-india-s-strong-growth-should-continue?source=feed#comment-211927 211927 Tue, 22 Jul 2008 20:20:59 -0400
Can you comment more about the Ponzi scheme? There is little or no seller financing in India; even bank led financing was a mirage less than a decade ago. Most of the money came from the unaccounted economy (black money) and transactions were conducted in all cash deals with people literally exchanging bags of cash.

As the other Vikram(Vikram12) pointed out, you also have to look at real prices versus nominal prices. The Indian Rupee has been depressed for the past two decades that shows up in pricing.

You also have to account for population density in India versus the USA. Land is relatively scarce in India and that will show up as higher premiums for homes, especially when compared to non-Metro/non-Coastal America where homes sell more on replacement value and not speculative value.

Growth in real estate prices in rapidly growing emerging economies is a not exclusive to India. Rising incomes coupled with the availability of credit, and rapid urbanization increases the value of real-estate at a much larger rate than the GDP.

Vikram12: Your comments about Gold is not easy for a non-Indian to understand. There used to plans to get the gold into circulation as capital but now that availability of capital is no longer a challenge they have been shelved. India is benefiting from the wealth effect of Gold which not many people factor in to their models.

Today's vote of confidence will be good for the equity markets. Further the recovery in the US equity markets is going to be good for equities in the emerging markets as well. And BSE is trading in mid teens of trailing P/E. Much cheaper than the US market with much better growth prospects.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85979-india-s-strong-growth-should-continue?source=feed#comment-211897 211897 Tue, 22 Jul 2008 18:46:24 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/85979-india-s-strong-growth-should-continue?source=feed#comment-211890 211890 Tue, 22 Jul 2008 18:39:12 -0400 you said "Nothing could be said to justify that, when you compare incomes, infrastructure and quality." i kind of agree with the point you make on infrastructure but you must not forget tht India has the most competitive manpower in the world and comparable to America... Your second point on income is incorrect because India has more increase yoy in real income than America. Americans have large spending habits whereas Indians are more conservative. And you seem to ignore the point i make about unaccounted equity which drives Indian housing market... There might be a correction in asset prices in India but you will not see foreclousures and building up of inventory which has been the case in America.....]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85979-india-s-strong-growth-should-continue?source=feed#comment-211885 211885 Tue, 22 Jul 2008 18:33:30 -0400 The BIG news today is that the indian govt won the confidence motion and that means they will push all the pending deals.
BUY IBN, EPI, PIN, TTM and/or IFN. Exit end of the year....
should have a good percentage move b/w now and then.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85979-india-s-strong-growth-should-continue?source=feed#comment-211538 211538 Tue, 22 Jul 2008 11:39:37 -0400 Let me clarify that there was NEVER a bubble in the USA, and what the media in the USA terms a bubble is basically just a tripling of home prices in TWENTY years in coastal areas. In the rest of the USA, home prices have only DOUBLED in the last TWENTY years. And this very meager appreciation is what they call a bubble, which is utterly ridiculous. The leftist media in the USA wants home prices to stagnate forever. Media in India, on the other hand, is a non-stop hype machine, getting more investors into the ponzi game. Land prices have gone up anywhere from 100 times to a 1000 times in the past 20 years in India, and compare that to 2-3 times in the USA. Even low quality apartments in most Indian towns cost more than even a decent single family home in a corresponding place in the USA. Nothing could be said to justify that, when you compare incomes, infrastructure and quality.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85979-india-s-strong-growth-should-continue?source=feed#comment-211357 211357 Tue, 22 Jul 2008 08:36:43 -0400
"FIIs have invested over 150 billion US dollars in the Indian Equity Market in the last decade, of which they redeemed only 7 billion US dollars in the last 6 months. This is 4.6% of the total dollar amount still invested in the Indian Stocks."

"credit crisis back in the US and some of the FIIs started booking profits and sending money back to the home country. And this happened in a bit of a hurry leading to panic and finally a market crash."

I don't think $7B is enough money to send back to US or any other country to recover from sluggish economy and banking crisis.

I think Indian markets are too speculative and sentimental....I agree that the valuations were blown out and currently it is going through a correction phase and I wouldn't be surprised if BSE drops around 10K.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85979-india-s-strong-growth-should-continue?source=feed#comment-211280 211280 Tue, 22 Jul 2008 04:32:49 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/85979-india-s-strong-growth-should-continue?source=feed#comment-211228 211228 Tue, 22 Jul 2008 00:55:25 -0400 1. Real Estate went down in India is a very generic statement. It may have corrected in some areas where it went up very quickly but there was no nationwide bust like we are currently seeing here in the USA.

2. What we are seeing right now is a catch-up phase where the country is making up for almost 50 years of lost growth. Thanks to development in information availability, the process is getting accelerated quickly. To get a sense of the potential, India's per-capita income is about half of China's. So even if the per-capita GDP double's in ten years (about 7-8% CAGR), it will still be behind China's!

3. The current real-estate boom in India is a result of:
(i) Industrial/Urban Expansion: Agricultural land near urban centers which was once valued based on depressed agricultural prices, is now being valued in terms of the commercial value in a globally integrated economy.
(ii) Development and expansion of credit facilities: Till very recently, buying a home in India required decades of savings, since credit availability was poor. In the past decade, as the banking sector developed and made credit available which led to the growth of the sector. Of course massive white-collar job growth helped the process along.

But if you view real-estate prices on a national scale, outside the hot urban growth centers, they are nowhere near inflated. There is no nationwide bubble in real-estate or asset pricing.

4. There is going to be massive infrastructure development in India in the next decade which not only is necessary to sustain growth, but like in China will likely be a driver of economic growth. There is enough private sector capital available to drive that since the economics are so well stacked up in the favor of investors. Gradually the political posturing which constrained infrastructure growth is also taking a back seat, with investors figuring out how to manage the politicians.

I do agree with some posters that the author could have organized his thoughts better and made a more cogent case. however many of the comments here are completely off-base. There is uncertainty in India about the fate of the Central (Federal Government) but if the past offers any clue, there are going to be no negative policy changes; in fact the lull might allow some tougher measures to go the legislature.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85979-india-s-strong-growth-should-continue?source=feed#comment-211189 211189 Mon, 21 Jul 2008 23:02:38 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/85979-india-s-strong-growth-should-continue?source=feed#comment-211159 211159 Mon, 21 Jul 2008 21:45:07 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/85979-india-s-strong-growth-should-continue?source=feed#comment-211090 211090 Mon, 21 Jul 2008 19:04:31 -0400 Jul 21 06:59 PMClearly, the author has lost a lot of money in the crash from the absurd valuations of Indian (and Chinese) markets. He is trying to pump it up as much as he can in a desperate attempt. Percentages are very misleading, and it is easy for a 1 trillion dollar economy (which is what India's GDP is currently) to show a 8-10% return, especially when it is coming almost completely from foreign sources. The US economy is $15 trillion, and even if it grows just 1%, its GDP growth is more than that of India in dollar terms. The law of numbers makes it harder for bigger numbers to grow by bigger percentages. So beware all scamsters who rely on percentages alone. Also, just because FIIs invested so much recently into India does not mean they are right in their investment strategy. Many established institutions do things wrong. US banks were lending easy money to home buyers for the past 5+ years, and by the author's argument, they should have done that because they expected a strong housing market. That's not what happened in the US, and the banks are now in trouble. India is right behind, when the greatest real estate bubble in the Universe pops in its metros. Mark my words, the next decade is going to be very dark for India, when all the hype is removed, India will be exposed for it truely is, a corrupt, cheating nation.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85979-india-s-strong-growth-should-continue?source=feed#comment-211039 211039 Mon, 21 Jul 2008 18:17:08 -0400 FYI: 1 lakh = 100,000 and 1 crore = 100 lakhs = 10million.

Article is obviously a little biased as it ignores significant political inteference in essentials like infrastructure, health care and education that prevent India from achieving its true potential. This has created an unstable business enivornment, especially if the govt collapses in the near future. Plus, you can't compare India to US, EU or Japan to get a proper feel re growth rates.

And India is not a socialist country!! It has tremendous potential but , as everywhere else, there are potholes on its road - literally and figuratively. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85979-india-s-strong-growth-should-continue?source=feed#comment-210934 210934 Mon, 21 Jul 2008 16:26:18 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/85979-india-s-strong-growth-should-continue?source=feed#comment-210875 210875 Mon, 21 Jul 2008 15:12:13 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/85979-india-s-strong-growth-should-continue?source=feed#comment-210833 210833 Mon, 21 Jul 2008 14:25:09 -0400
WefWef: The Indian financial market use lacs (0.1M) and crores (10M) and the author chose to use them since he is based in India. SA is read outside the USA also, and investors in India are well aware of these terms. You could write to SA editors to convert these numbers to the US system.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85979-india-s-strong-growth-should-continue?source=feed#comment-210814 210814 Mon, 21 Jul 2008 14:05:48 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/85979-india-s-strong-growth-should-continue?source=feed#comment-210766 210766 Mon, 21 Jul 2008 13:19:31 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/85979-india-s-strong-growth-should-continue?source=feed#comment-210716 210716 Mon, 21 Jul 2008 12:33:54 -0400