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Vahan Janjigian, CFA

 
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  • Stocks Rise As Economy Falls [View article]
    Of course GDP does not capture all economic activity. No one said it does. All economic metrics are flawed in one way or another. That's why they are called estimates. However, as long as the flaws remain consistent, the changes in the metrics are informative. In other words, it matters whether GDP goes up or down even if GDP is incorrectly measured, as long as it is consistently incorrectly measured.
    Jul 11 10:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks Rise As Economy Falls [View article]
    Good point. Clearly, there is a correlation between the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) and the rise in part time jobs. However, as any good statistician would remind you, correlation does not necessarily imply causation. Still, anecdotal evidence suggests that many small businesses avoided hiring full-time workers precisely for this reason--to keep from becoming subject to Obamacare.
    Jul 10 11:35 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks Rise As Economy Falls [View article]
    Thank you Mr. Bear.
    Jul 10 09:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ANSYS Simulates Reality In A Virtual World [View article]
    Good question. ANSS includes revenues from China in its "Other" category, which was 18% of revenues in 2013 and 16% in Q1 2014. They don't break down what revenues are in any of the countries included in that category, but they specifically mentioned recently that results were weak in both China and India.
    May 12 12:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Comments On Today's Employment Situation Report [View article]
    Thank you.
    Jan 13 09:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed Says Rates Will Remain Low Despite The Taper [View article]
    I can't argue with that. What you say makes sense.
    Dec 23 10:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed Says Rates Will Remain Low Despite The Taper [View article]
    You're absolutely right. The Fed had hoped that the banks would use the money to lend to businesses. The problem is that banks can't lend if businesses don't want to borrow. Of course, some businesses do want to borrow; but banks have had to tighten their standards. As a result, businesses that want to borrow can't get the funds and the businesses the banks would like to lend to don't want the funds.
    Dec 23 10:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AVX preliminary results miss on revenue, EPS in-line [View news story]
    This is wrong. Revenues INCREASED 4.1% to $375.8 million, ahead of the consensus estimate. Net income INCREASED 2.8% to $28.8 million.
    Oct 29 09:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • RF Micro Devices Up On iPhone Sales [View article]
    All in all, I thought the financial results were good and the call went well. Given the big run up in the stock recently, the profit taking does not surprise me. I would consider any further weakness a buying opportunity.
    Oct 23 10:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Market May Be Set For A Sell-Off [View article]
    Thanks Mr. Bear. BTW, that well-known analyst is a friend of mine. She's right about what she said in the short run. Markets and the economy often diverge in the short run, but in the long run, they are correlated.
    Oct 23 12:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 Hits All-Time High As Political Crisis Ends [View article]
    It makes sense to talk about reducing all kinds of spending, including military spending; however, military spending is not elephant-sized, let alone "Hindenburg" sized. Just take a look at the CBO's own budget and projections. Defense spending is currently 3.8% of GDP. Medicare and Medicaid spending (including CHIP) is 4.7% of GDP. Spending on Social Security is 4.9% of GDP. The difference, however, is that defense spending as a percentage of GDP is projected to decline while Medicare and Medicaid spending is expected to rise. So is spending on Social Security. The CBO projects defense spending to fall to just 2.6% of GDP in 10 years. At the same time, Medicare and Medicaid spending are projected to rise to 5.9% of GDP, while Social Security spending is expected to reach 5.3% of GDP. According to the CBO, if you go out another 15 years, things get much worse. This is why spending on Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security are not sustainable.
    Oct 20 07:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • RF Micro Devices Up On iPhone Sales [View article]
    Sorry for the confusion. Although iFixit conducted the actual teardown, the increased RFMD content, including an antenna switch, was determined by Canaccord Genuity: http://on.wsj.com/15qnxL9
    Sep 24 03:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • RF Micro Devices Up On iPhone Sales [View article]
    Sorry for the oversight. As per the June 10-Q, the number of shares that would be issued upon conversion is 8.4 million. Relative to the 281 million outstanding, that doesn't sound like much. Yet if the stock price exceeds the conversion price, in effect, the company would be transferring wealth from existing shareholders to the converting shareholders. But that's the nature of convertible debt. It's basically the same thing as issuing straight debt with a call option attached.
    Sep 24 03:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Decline In Unemployment Rate Is Not Good News [View article]
    Are you talking about the U-6?
    Apr 6 09:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Get Fooled By The Unemployment Rate [View article]
    Yes, it is true that the aging population explains some of the decline in the participation rate; however, the last time the participation rate was this low was when Ronald Reagan was entering the White House. Back then it was still uncommon for so many women to be in the workforce. With both sexes participating equally in the workforce today, I would expect the participation rate to be higher than it was in 1981.
    Apr 4 07:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
16 Comments
6 Likes