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  • Micron (MU) -2.1% AH in spite of its FQ1 beat, as investors take profits following a 120% YTD run-up. DRAM sales +23% Q/Q in FQ1, thanks to a 16% ASP increase and 6% volume growth. NAND flash sales +7%, largely due to an 8% increase in trade NAND ASPs. The ASP gains led gross margin to jump 600 bps Q/Q and 1300 bps Y/Y to 24%. Capex was $235M (10% of revenue), and free cash flow was $389M, a big improvement from FQ4's $78M and a reversal from the cash burn reported in many recent quarters. RBC notes DRAM sales were better than expected, but adds NAND shipments were light. SanDisk (SNDK) +0.8%[View news story]
    Am I the only one that heard this, "So, adjusting for these items, non-GAAP EPS improved from $0.06 loss in our GAAP results in the second quarter due an income of $0.15 per share in the third quarter." - it's in the transcript. So let's get this straight, $MU is already doing $0.15 per quarter, and DRAM ASPs are rising, and Elpida hasn't closed yet. This stock is going much higher.
    Jun 19, 2013. 07:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ChipMOS: Stock Remains Dirt Cheap, 50%+ Upside By Year End [View article]
    Paulo, I assure you in the most emphatic terms possible that we have DEEPLY researched this stock and that yes, the EBITDA is absolutely recurring. Not sure what you are pointing out by sending a link to their 1Q press release. Their 1Q cash generation exceeded reported free cash flow due to changes in working capital - that is true (just as some quarters it is less) - but EBITDA is EBITDA in this case, no shenanigans, no one-timers. You are going to find a growth story this cheap and this good very, very rarely.
    If you have additional comments, questions, suggestions, please give this a deeper look first, we assure you, we've spent a ton of time on this name, including speaking to comps, customers, etc.
    Jun 18, 2013. 09:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ChipMOS: Stock Remains Dirt Cheap, 50%+ Upside By Year End [View article]
    Chipmos is not totally depending on Micron. Micron is a 14% customer, but will likely become larger. Novatek is currently the largest customer at about 21% of sales. Winbond is the 3rd largest at just under 10%. Other major customers include Spansion, Himax, Macronix, Ili Technology, Raydium, Renesas, and AKM. If one is bullish on memory and growth in panels (for mobile, TV, etc.) - IMOS is extraordinarily positioned and a bargain at 2.3x EV/EBITDA. Companies at this type of multiple are typically in businesses that are going away, not in growth markets.

    We also like Micron, and think the charts on our recent instablog are very instructive as to where MU can go http://bit.ly/17WvVHz or read our bullish piece from May 28 here http://bit.ly/130Q9el or our original buy recommendation from last November when MU was at $5.71 http://bit.ly/10e1DJe

    We think at 2.3x EV/EBITDA IMOS is cheaper and currently has far less of an institutional following (which to us, means more opportunity), but we like both.
    Jun 18, 2013. 06:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel's Mobile Strategy: 60% Gross Margins Are More Than Likely [View article]
    As usual, very nice article. But if you really believe "There is nothing more frustrating than seeing a patently false myth propagate over the web, particularly regarding an investment that you have studied inside and out..." - then you need to get out more...a lot more. ;-)
    Jun 14, 2013. 12:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron Earnings Preview: Could Be Worth A Trade, But Know What You Own [View article]
    For those who weren't around the DRAM industry in the 90s - you might enjoy this http://bit.ly/16ac5oK
    Jun 11, 2013. 04:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: The Prime Beneficiary Of The War Between Apple And Samsung [View article]
    Capacity is somewhat fungible, so demand from mobile helps, although MU would NOT be able to capitalise to the extent of peers better levered to mobile. HOWEVER, and this is a huge however, Elpida is massively levered to mobile (over half their output goes to Apple). So not only is the acquisition hugely accretive, buoyed by what was an originally low-ball bid that has only benefited from rising DRAM prices and a declining yen, but it also helps MU strategically from a product portfolio perspective.
    Interesting, that the demand from mobile has drawn demand (and capacity) to that segment, and as a result, ASP increases have actually been more pronounced in commodity DRAM.
    Incidentally, thanks for the compliment, and if you like this piece, take a look at IMOS which trades at about 2.5x EV/EBITDA and almost a 20% FCF yield - MU is their 2nd biggest customer and they are likely to get additional business when Elpida closes.
    Jun 7, 2013. 06:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Responsys: Last SaaS Standing [View article]
    Clearly a huge multiple disparity with comps - any reason for it, or just completely missed by the market? What's your view of fair value?
    Jun 6, 2013. 07:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Move(ing) On Up: A Smarter Way To Profit From A Real Estate Recovery [View article]
    Excellent article - meeting of NAR and MOVE is supposed to be July 23, 24, or 25 http://bit.ly/13Dxy7c - so potential meaningful catalyst is soon.
    Jun 4, 2013. 10:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Rubicon Ahead Of Cyclical And Secular Upturn [View article]
    GTAT is an absolutely legit call, however we haven't done adequate work on the solar side of their biz to write about it.
    Jun 4, 2013. 05:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Rubicon Ahead Of Cyclical And Secular Upturn [View article]
    Chris,

    Thank you for the very reasonable response (that is, after your first sentence - I have to remember how passionate UNXL longs are. My long puts is actually a very small position and doesn't mean a heck of a lot to my portfolio).

    I agree, manufacturing processes are not homogeneous, so we can't generalize regarding ability to scale, cost reductions, etc. My bet is we'll get there, and we'll get there sooner than one would think, or that the market is giving credit for. Importantly, I don't think any of this is built into the stock - and certainly RBCN CEO Raja Parvez and crew are NOT hyping the opportunity - in fact, they're hardly even mentioning the opportunity.

    I think the more substantial play is general LED lighting (I recommend Parvez' commentary from the JPM conference a couple of weeks ago http://bit.ly/14eP4B9) which I'd expect to gain a lot of traction in 2H and into '14 and beyond - certainly enough to move the industry supply/demand needle.

    Lastly we have a new stock-specific article in the works for later this week that 1) will have no mention of UNXL, 2) is not a tech company, 3) has a management and board that we believe has performed poorly, and 4) despite point 3, we believe will return 40%-100%, with an identifiable near-term catalyst. We think you'll like it.
    Jun 4, 2013. 04:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Rubicon Ahead Of Cyclical And Secular Upturn [View article]
    Guys, get your panties out of a bunch (although its amusing). Our point is something much broader. UNXL has built a $200 million market cap company on its unproven UniBoss technology (a $5 million dollar advance does not count as proven, especially with no demonstrated to mass produce, etc.). The touch screen market IS immense. The SCREEN MARKET is immense. So yes, it is a bit of apples and oranges, but we'd argue that none of the screen opportunity is factored into RBCN's price. And while someone like GTAT (GTAT is interesting too) is a much greater direct beneficiary of sapphire screen adoption, the amount of sapphire capacity that would be absorbed via adoption of sapphire screen technology is enormous.
    We like to invest based on fundamentals, not hype, but we can imagine the "hype cycle" for sapphire screens really picking up steam over the next 6-12 months and we intend to be on the right side of that trade. And in the case of sapphire, we know it works, the price isn't right...yet - but it will get there. And with multiple vendors killing each other for market share, someone will step up.
    Jun 4, 2013. 01:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Uni-Pixel: A Picture Is Worth A Thousand Words [View article]
    This is a horrible article, clearly doctored pictures, made up quotes from fake companies. UNXL is the bomb, stop all the hating you terrible short-seller you.

    But seriously, terrific article. Great work. Can't get a borrow, but my puts are doing well.

    Unfortunately I'm sure there is little recourse for investors who have gotten trashed in this stock, and Killian and team will sit pretty with the millions they "earned" in their secondary via this brilliant, classic, and obvious pump-and-dump.
    May 31, 2013. 10:58 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • UniPixel (UNXL -7.9%) fell hard again today in the absence of major news. Though shares are still up 42% YTD and over 3x from a year ago, they're now down 53% from their April 17 high. Yesterday, Feltl's Jeffrey Schreiner reported rival metal mesh touch sensor developer Atmel (ATML) sees Fujifilm as a "much more significant competitor" than UniPixel. Atmel management told Schreiner the company expects to qualify its Colorado facility for XSense production by the end of May, but that delays have led it to put orders from tier 2/3 clients on hold. Cowen argued last week UniPixel's UniBoss sensors have variable cost and throughput advantages over rivals. [View news story]
    Where have all the very vocal longs gone? Bueller? Bueller?
    May 29, 2013. 06:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Himax (HIMX) +1.1% AH after Oppenheimer starts coverage with an Outperform and $9 PT. Shares closed down 19% today from their May 16 high of $8.19, but remain up 178% YTD. [View news story]
    Check out pages 51-55 of Mary Meeker's 2013 Internet Trends presentation from today http://tcrn.ch/18zwogg - Himax is working with Google, but they are working with others as well. This is a big, incremental, multi-year opportunity.
    May 29, 2013. 05:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron And SanDisk: A Tale Of 2 Memory Companies [View article]
    Fair enough. That said, it appears that there is a slowing of density improvements. And while claims of hitting the shrink wall have existed for years, clearly we are getting closer and are seeing higher costs/lower benefits with each generation. 3D could change things, but even there I would expect performance disadvantages, at least at the outset.
    May 29, 2013. 07:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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