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  • Why Is Uni-Pixel Falling? [View article]
    In our 20+ years in investments, we spend a decade at 3 investment banks ranging from several hundred to tens of thousands of employees.

    We find it shocking that any employees MDB would choose to post in this venue. In our experience, we would be sanctioned by management, if not fired for doing so. The comments from MDB are critical of this post, but MDB neglects to disclose information such as fees received for investment banking or ownership positions (ie information customarily provided by guests on CNBC).

    This speaks very poorly for MDB, as if Mr. Pearson's well researched background on MDB wasn't damning enough.

    Full disclosure: we have no position in Unipixel.

    For any Unipixel longs, we'd be curious to know of any examples of merged Nevada shells that have spent as little as UNXL (under $10 million combined for 2009-2011. It would be easier to believe this is a Cinderella story if there were examples of some from the past. Unfortunately this appears to walk and quack like a duck.
    Jan 27, 2013. 08:54 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Intel Is So Tough To Own [View article]
    Ashraf, I'd argue that most of the reason Intel has seen multiple compression is the slowing, if not upcoming "death" of the PC market, and not incipient competition in the server space. Intel's historical missteps in mobile (smartphone/tablet, not notebook) has put them in the penalty box. Frankly, in an organization 100,000 strong which you frequently toute, that nobody was ahead of the curve on mobile - someone should be flogged. Where was the market research?
    Potential server share losses only make for a tougher story.
    I also disagree with your comment on vendor relationships - it is a double edge sword. Yes, Intel has them, but they also make 70-80% GMs off them with their server chips (highest GM segment for Intel). ARM and its ecosystem partners also have extensive relationships (ARM is not a new start-up, right?) and their partners, Intel's partners, would like nothing more than a viable 2nd source. The success of ARM, or even the potential for their success in server, could eat into INTC's near monopoly partners.
    Intel night be one to own for a trade given the potential for near-term PC datapoints that are improving, or simply, less-bad, but I'd expect Intel to remain hard to own.
    Jan 27, 2013. 07:27 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nam Tai Shares Could Triple Despite Apple's Issues [View article]
    Follow us, don't miss upcoming articles.
    Jan 26, 2013. 06:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Blowing The Whistle On Cyberonics [View article]
    Full disclosure: bought puts following the publication of the article.

    I think the track record of the author speaks for itself. 10 shorts down an average of 70% and all down is incredible and frankly, I am disappointed that streetsweeper (an affiliated entity) covered its short.

    To us, the big question is why a sales force would get paid a commission on replacement batteries. Yes, reps should remind doctors, but if commissions are being paid - that's criminal.

    We do take exception with your math. If the addressable population is 250,000 and its effectiveness is 25% and it has 70,000 installations - it does NOT mean that is was installed in people for whom it works. The remainder of the population is addressible. That being said, the low hanging fruit seems to have been picked off and the FDA should review the device, it appears to be killing way too many people.

    Anyhow, great work.
    Jan 25, 2013. 05:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nam Tai Shares Could Triple Despite Apple's Issues [View article]
    Irving Kahn in the Wall Street Journal in December, right before turning 107 -

    Also, in Wikipedia

    He's 107 and still breathing, we'd say he's faring extremely well.
    Jan 25, 2013. 03:27 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nam Tai Shares Could Triple Despite Apple's Issues [View article]
    Thank you for your comment. We are curious as to the basis of your skepticism regarding Shenzhen land value? Have you done primary research on the Shenzhen market? We would encourage you not to use Las Vegas or any other location as your proxy.

    We fully stand by the statements in this article. The only caveat is that we don't know the specifics of the rezoning or the timing. As you know, in real estate, it's location, location, location. However, this is a very attractive location, near a major highway, near the airport, in Ba'oan, the most populous district in Shenzhen.

    Other factors that impact real estate prices are cap rates (ie the required yield on the property - which in Shenzhen is ~3%+, unbelievably low) - and ability to get financing, which is very easy/cheap in China as a general rule.

    But instead of supplying you with qualitative statements, below is a recent transaction of RAW LAND IN SHENZHEN.

    On January 22nd Shenzhen Investment Ltd, a publicly traded company in Hong Kong announced that it was acquiring 122,000 square meters of RAW LAND, approximately 1.3 million square feet, at this address in Shenzhen for $667 million according to Bloomberg - amazingly, shares closed up 17% on the news, suggesting this price is very attractive

    This land will have be used for both residential, and office and hotel.

    This is about 2.4-2.5 times the size of NamTai's parcel.

    Again, we don't know the precise zoning, nor what the quality of the surrounding environment will be like, but we don't think the suggestion that this property could be worth $200-$300 million is off by a magnitude. We would be hard pressed to find any evidence that your suggestion of $50 million bears any resemblance to reality in Shenzhen, unless high-end commercial is a euphemism for a ghetto (based on Shenzhen development over the last 20 years, quite improbable). Finally, we believe Mr. Koo and his Board including Peter Kellogg are excellent stewards of capital and will be value maximizing with this asset, whether in a sale, JV, spin-out into a public vehicle or any other approach.

    Our thesis on NTE is not predicated on the real estate being highly valuable, but with $3.50 of cash, and likely at least several dollars of value in the real estate, we think that increases the margin of safety to the investment.
    Jan 25, 2013. 03:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Mellanox: Growth Has Vanished, Trust Is Lost, And Premium Multiple Should Soon Evaporate [View article]
    As usual, excellent analysis. Yesterday's run-up was a gift and plenty of room still to short.
    Jan 25, 2013. 08:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shares of Mattel (MAT) are on watch after peer Hasbro set a negative tone on the toy sector by preannouncing Q4 earnings. Though Hasbro didn't offer a significant amount of color on holiday sales, consumer demand for physical toys appears to have weakened. MAT -0.3% premarket. [View news story]
    Both $MAT and $HAS are losing share hand-over-fist to $LF - take the $$$ missing at both and add to $LF and their upcoming big 4Q upside.
    Jan 25, 2013. 08:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nam Tai Shares Could Triple Despite Apple's Issues [View article]
    A couple additional comments from the author:

    Namtai reports 4Q results pre-open on Monday (Jan 28). The company issued a press release on December 2nd that revenue had surpassed $1bn for the year, meaning 4Q revenues at the time was at least $320 million. We are modeling $466 million, which is 261% y/y growth.

    While we admit in our mea culpa (above) that we got it wrong on NamTai prior to 3Q, we neglected to mention that when we wrote on NamTai in August we suggested shares would double by year-end. In fact, shares more than doubled during the period, prior to a ~25% pull-back.
    Jan 25, 2013. 07:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Should Approve A Huge Repurchase Plan [View article]
    Jason, I suggested they lever up for a massive repurchase last February - you were not exactly first with this call.

    Incidentally, a 10 for 1 stock split is the suggestion of a rank amateur.

    At the time of my post I received a number of comments suggesting debt would hurt Apple's culture - I continue to find that to be a ridiculous excuse to not engage in appropriate capital policy. Further, since the time of my post, a number of leading tech companies have engaged in massive, low interest, debt offerings.

    Steve Jobs was visionary, but hated debt. Perhaps if he were alive today he would be enough of a visionary to recognize the current unique low interest rate environment and the opportunity it affords.
    Jan 22, 2013. 02:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron Technology - And Then There Were 4 [View article]
    This was a great call about 2 1/2 months ago - see my very bullish article from early November pre 40% move. Other previous articles also address consolidation
    We concur with your analysis, think there is some additional upside, but also think risk/reward is becoming more balanced.
    Jan 21, 2013. 11:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Something's Gotta Give - Time To Buy Micron [View article]
    I think I pretty much nailed the call on Micron.
    Jan 20, 2013. 07:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Could This Be The Year Netlist Gains Traction? [View article]
    We got this one wrong and punted a while back. Could it come back from the dead, possible. But we have no conviction and have not spent time here in months.
    Jan 19, 2013. 07:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cramer's Mad Money - The Dollar Store Debacle (1/16/13) [View article]
    Wow, Cramer being Cramer on LF. Regardless of how 4Q turns out, for him to say they've disappointed too many times is absurd.

    Facts are:
    Beaten earnings 7 consecutive quarters
    Stock is significantly higher today than 12 months ago, which is higher than where it was 12 months prior.

    As usual, Mr. C not letting the facts get in the way of a stock pick.
    Jan 17, 2013. 06:40 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Applied Micro Circuits Is ARMed To Serve Up Further Gains [View article]
    Ashraf, if AMCC gets 1% market share that's real $$ to them and quite a long and certainly not the great short you suggested a month and couple dollars ago.
    And if AMCC gets 1% does it stop there? ARM has lots of friends and Intel has exceedingly high margins in servers. They stand to lose a lot if the crack in the damn widens.
    Jan 17, 2013. 12:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment