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  • LeapFrog Shares Could Double In 2013 [View article]
    We acknowledge that Vtech is a well-capitalized competitor, that can also do well in the market. That being said, to be blunt, based on the entirety of VTech's product offering, with which we are very familiar, they have something of a second tier reputation, with products seen as somewhat junky.
    Dec 31, 2012. 01:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LeapFrog Shares Could Double In 2013 [View article]
    Calouche & southgent - I don't doubt that the market will change although in the near-term the market is accelerating towards tablets.

    What I think almost everyone is missing is that wherever the market goes, LeapFrog is exceptionally positioned. They are the market leader in educational learning toys. Why were they able immediately gain market share in 2011? Yes, a very clever, well designed product at the right price point - but look in the 10-k, they had only 25 apps. Yet, completely sold out.

    They did this with minimal advertising spend (referring to 4Q 2011) because the product was well-reviewed and, we'd argue, more importantly, because they have well established brand equity with parents, and a reputation for high-quality educational products. We believe the time and cost of others to replicate this is substantial, and uncertain.
    Dec 31, 2012. 12:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LeapFrog Shares Could Double In 2013 [View article]
    You are correct, closer to $1.50 if you include various r&d tax credits. Still with $3+ of cash and likely $1+ eps, unbelievably cheap in our view.
    Dec 31, 2012. 12:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SunOpta: Cheap Organic Food Company With 2 Secret Ingredients [View article]
    Yaron, appreciate the lengthy, thorough response to my questions.
    Dec 30, 2012. 08:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons Smart Money Is Short Microsoft In 2013 [View article]
    "A professional DCF" wow, unreal. Now there's DCF i can rely on.
    I guess the 50%+ of fund managers that fail to beat the market are the amateurs.
    Dec 29, 2012. 11:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LeapFrog Shares Could Double In 2013 [View article]
    Mollusk has been selling in an ongoing, orderly fashion for the last several years. It was a concentrated position and they've done extremely well on it. I'm not familiar with 12 West's perspective on LF, would be curious to know.
    Dec 29, 2012. 09:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LeapFrog Shares Could Double In 2013 [View article]
    Micah, a buyout is compelling. If I'm Mattel or Hasbro I have to think that every dollar of sales to LeapPad or V-tech is a dollar of sales that I've lost. Vtech, as part of a large conglomerate is unlikely to be sold - LF is a sensible bite-size acquisition. In addition MAT and HAS have such a broader reach/wider relationships than LF they could meaningfully grow top-line beyond LF's ability as a standalone.
    Dec 29, 2012. 09:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LeapFrog Shares Could Double In 2013 [View article]
    We've looked at Tabeo and essentially see it as a non-starter. In our view, Amazon poses the greatest risk, although we see enough product differentiation and overall headroom for significant growth. In addition, we believe they can be multiple winners - just look at the broader tablet or handset markets.
    Dec 29, 2012. 09:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • LeapFrog Shares Could Double In 2013 [View article]
    Short thesis is below - I will address it. I think worst case, the short thesis is being laid out way, way too early.
    Feel extremely high conviction in this call - will see new highs early next year.
    Dec 29, 2012. 09:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Millennial Media: Shares Could Fall 50% On Lock-Up Expiration And Competition [View article]
    Feeling very comfortable that MM goes to single digits in 2013 - stock now down over 15% since I wrote this piece. As I suggested, management hyped and sold stock.
    Dec 29, 2012. 09:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons Smart Money Is Short Microsoft In 2013 [View article]
    Wow, wish I'd written that. Only differences are my numbers would likely be even more draconian as I expect shift to mobile/tablet to accelerate MSFT declines, and also think Google Tools and other solutions create more uncertainty arounds Office cash cow than street is modeling.

    MSFT may get more aggressive with buybacks to prop the stock/EPS, but this will get uglier and uglier.

    Akram, great analysis as usual.
    Dec 29, 2012. 09:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LeapFrog Shares Could Double In 2013 [View article]
    We think it's a great story - growth stock trading at value stock price. That said, please do your own research, and if you have additional thoughts, positive or negative, please let us know.
    Dec 29, 2012. 07:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LeapFrog Shares Could Double In 2013 [View article]
    The company has done an incredible job of building a very loyal customer base and brand reputation with limited advertising/marketing spend. Companies with an organic, grassroots growth (Panera, Chipotle, Urban Outfitters, Lululemon, Whole Foods) stories are really exciting when you get in in the early innings.
    Dec 29, 2012. 07:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LeapFrog Shares Could Double In 2013 [View article]
    Appreciate the positive feedback. Hectic day today - will respond to all comments over the weekend. Thanks for being patient.
    Dec 28, 2012. 04:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft: Surface Sales Don't Matter [View article]
    Sal, great quote which is true until it is untrue. What appears undeniable is that it is evolving in ways that are very bad for MSFTs future. Office functionality can be delivered more cheaply, and by others over the Web. And tablets are in year 2. In year 2 PCs sucked. Year 4 or 5 tablets will completely annihilate PCs - and MSFT benefits how?
    Dec 28, 2012. 12:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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