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Analyst and Fund Manager with almost 20 years investment experience. Coverage includes a variety of industries, with a focus on technology. Particularly focused on value stocks, poorly understood or under-followed situations, and contrarian perspectives. Primarily invest in special situations... More
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  • Top Idea Performance Update

    Below is a chart showing the performance of all of our Seeking Alpha Top Ideas.

    (click to enlarge)For current thoughts on several of our Top Ideas, please see our recent interview with Chris DeMuth Jr.

    We currently hold long positions in: CRDS, DRAD, IMOS, LOJN, OTIV, PDEX, and RDCM. We will not sell any of these holdings for at least 72 hours following the publication of this Instablog.

    We conduct thorough research on our ideas, but our views are our own. Please do your own research.

    Disclosure: I am long CRDS, DRAD, IMOS, LOJN, OTIV, PDEX, RDCM.

    Additional disclosure: We conduct thorough research on our ideas, but our views are our own. Please do your own research.

    Apr 06 9:28 PM | Link | 9 Comments
  • OTIV: 11 Questions That Will Set The Direction For Our Top Pick Of 2014

    When On Track Innovations (NASDAQ:OTIV) reports 3Q results tomorrow pre-open, we'd expect the audience to be much larger than for prior calls due to the plethora of recent news, as well as our recent Alpha-Rich article. OTI remains our top-pick for 2014 despite it's 30%+ move since our write-up.

    On the last call, there were no analyst questions. However, OTI CEO Ofer Tziperman used the call as an opportunity to address a variety of questions he had received from investor (2Q transcript here).

    We're not sure if OTI management will take live questions tomorrow, so we have prepared 11 questions we feel are key to understanding the direction and potential of OTI in 2014 and beyond.

    1. Can you size the NFC payments market opportunity, and your expectations of how the growth curve will look (i.e. acceleration/deceleration in 2014/15, etc.)?

    2. If you win your fair share of the NFC payments segment, what would that imply in terms of growth rate?

    3. How meaningful is the recent certification of OTI's Wave device by Mastercard (NYSE:MA), and what has been the market response to this development?

    4. In the press release announcing Mastercard certification, there is a quote "We expect other major payment companies to follow suit and provide certification in the near future." Can you provide a sense of timing and explain the impact on your market opportunity if others follow suit?

    5. Could you discuss how we should think of the Wave? While Square has obviously achieved massive success/adoption with its device (and a $4+ billion private valuation), do you believe OTI, with ~$100 million market cap, 100+ patents, extensive bank/payments relationships, and 20 years of development has a similar opportunity?

    6. It appears that your parking segment is seeing acceleration, how should we size that opportunity and think of its growth rate?

    7. It appears that your petroleum segment is seeing acceleration, how should we size that opportunity and think of its growth rate?

    8. How should we size the potential damages you will be looking for in the upcoming trial with T-Mobile, especially in light of the positive Markman ruling?

    9. What is your strategy if the current SmartID sale is not consummated?

    10. Based on you model, do you anticipate EBITDA profitability sometime in the next few quarters, and for 2014 as a whole?

    11. Given what appears to be a very exciting story in its very early stages, have you been in touch with any sell-side analysts, and would you anticipate research coverage in 2014?

    We think these questions are just the tip of the iceberg, but will provide an important sense of how 2014 and beyond will look.

    If you have questions, we encourage you to reach out to OTI's IR team. The can be reached at

    Disclosure: I am long OTIV.

    Additional disclosure: We conduct thorough research on our ideas, but our views are our own. Please do your own research.

    Nov 25 8:38 AM | Link | 1 Comment
  • DRAD Shares Should Go Higher With Red Oak Sales Near Completion

    Anytime we buy a stock we ask ourselves, "what do we know that the market isn't factoring in?" After all, a stock trade is a two way transaction. Just as the buyer believes the stock will rise, the seller, in theory, believes the security being sold has attained full value.

    While we discuss our investing philosophy comprehensively in future articles, the thought process of, "why are we getting such a good deal on this stock?" sets a great backdrop for a quick update to our Alpha-Rich article on Digirad (NASDAQ:DRAD).

    Specifically, post blow-out earnings, reported on November 1st, we were surprised shares didn't go dramatically higher. On November 5th, an explanation became clear. According to a 13-D filed by Red Oak Fund, in the 3 days post earnings, they sold an astounding 535,160 shares, or 24.53% of the volume.

    Red Oak had been involved in a proxy contest with Digirad earlier in the year, and with a healthy profit, it was time to move on. Fortunately, for those interested in establishing a position in Digirad, Red Oak's sales have created what we believe is a very short-term ceiling on shares, and a wonderful entry point.

    Below is our calculation for how many shares Red Oak still owns, assuming they comprised 20-30% of trading volume from November 6-8.

    (click to enlarge)

    By our calculations, Red Oak still holds between 113,000 and 246,000 shares. Assuming trading volume remains strong, Red Oak should be fully out of the position, as soon as today. We anticipate a steady move higher for shares of Digirad once they are done.

    Disclosure: I am long DRAD.

    Nov 11 8:27 AM | Link | 2 Comments
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