Seeking Alpha
  • Valuable Insights
    $MSFT a secular short. Which of its segments is a) growing, b) suppliers gaining pricing power) or c) an area where MSFT is gaining share?
    12/27/12
    Reply (13)
    • Modernist: hard to pick my favorite value trapped commenter but here's one: http://seekingalpha.com/c/7rbnd
      12/27/12
    • Valuable Insights: Good article. Office gets much tougher. Surface a bomb. I have article tomorrow about co with 1/20 MSFT's ad spend with higher tablet sales.
      12/27/12
    • Modernist: reminds me of http://bit.ly/U6pKpV
      12/27/12
    • ConservativeOutperformer: Short a name that's already priced for extinction? Are you thinking earnings will contract by 30%? The dividend will go away? Ans: S&T
      12/28/12
    • Valuable Insights: It is conceivable that earnings contract 30%. As a hedge, how does my portfolio get hurt? If tech takes off next year, what is MSFT levered
      12/29/12
    • Valuable Insights: to that it should outperform? Not levered to tablets. Google, apple, et al, all become more of a threat. What gets better for MSFT?
      12/29/12
    • ConservativeOutperformer: The key to money management is risk vs reward. Nothing has to get better for MSFT with the valuation in the gutter. All they need to do..
      12/30/12
    • ConservativeOutperformer: is have 2 qtrs showing they aren't going bankrupt and the price goes up. It's a terrible decision from a risk/reward standpoint to short it
      12/30/12
    • ConservativeOutperformer: You are knowledgeable about equity selection (the GRPN put was easy $), but there are far better risk-adjusted shorts out there... GoodLuck
      12/30/12
    • Valuable Insights: What are some of your favorite short ideas? Read Akram Razor's recent posts on $MSFT - I agree. MSFT remains over owned by long only's.
      12/30/12
    • Valuable Insights: Cheap can get cheaper. I wrote negatively on $INTC last feb at $25, but was not short thinking yield plus cheapness would save the day.
      12/30/12
    • Valuable Insights: I sure blew 20% on that. Simple negative earnings revisions can help $MSFT on the slow melt lower.
      12/30/12
    • Modernist: what are we comparing $MSFT to to say the valuation is in the gutter? $SAP ?
      1/1/13