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  • VirnetX Patents At High Risk Of Being Invalidated [View article]
    Good articles yesterday and today. I almost feel bad for the VHC bagholders, they are desperately trying to hold on to hope and tune out the dissenting voices that have been correctly warning them for a long time now.
    Sep 19, 2014. 09:29 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Signs Point To Affirmation Of VirnetX $368M Jury Award Against Apple At CAFC [View article]
    I tried to warn you guys. With a year of cash and a remand that makes a very large damages award unlikely to say the least, I am not sure what VHC is going to do or how it is going to fund itself.
    Sep 16, 2014. 12:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickLogic: An Overvalued Stock In Rapid Fundamental Decline [View article]
    Executing well? We've been hearing about them getting design wins in smartphones for 5+ years now. Yet still nothing significant. Their only meaningful design win with a Tier 1 OEM in the last few years- the Samsung tablets- never earned them any money because the gross margin was so low and it is going away anyway. That's the problem with these low cost FPGAs being used for glue logic, when they do get a design win its for some temporary feature that inevitably gets integrated into the main chips over time.
    Jul 31, 2014. 08:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickLogic: An Overvalued Stock In Rapid Fundamental Decline [View article]
    Ahahahaha $4M in revenue next quarter. This company's market cap should be $50M, not $200M. What a joke- their revenue is plunging, not growing.
    Jul 30, 2014. 05:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickLogic: An Overvalued Stock In Rapid Fundamental Decline [View article]
    Good article- the comments here are hilarious. Looking back at the chart you can see several cycles of hype and disappointment in QUIK stock, usually driven by overly bullish articles appearing on Seeking Alpha (including articles by Brian Coleman in 2008, 2010 and 2012). Does anyone else remember the excitement over VEE/DPO technology and the Qualcomm "reference design"? What happened to "bagging Nokia"?

    In reality QUIK is a complete failure of a company and has been for a long time now. Given their miniscule R&D the chances of them matching the capabilities of the big boys in the sensor hub market are small. You are way too generous to them in your comps analysis, they do not deserve to be compared to perennially profitable technology leaders like XLNX. In the best case scenario that they actually succeeded (which I highly doubt) they should be compared to low GM smartphone component vendors like LSCC and SIMG who trade at under 2x sales.

    This implies that QUIK needs over $100M of revenue just to justify its current market cap. I think they will have less than $30M in 2015 as this Samsung revenue rolls off. Troubled semi companies with low GMs frequently trade at less than 1x sales, which implies potential penny stock status for QUIK. If a company that is unprofitable with a declining sales trajectory after being public for 15 years doesn't qualify as "troubled", I don't know what does.

    With all the trouble in the Samsung supply chain, the weakness in the overall tablet market, the transition away from their display bridge solution, etc., I think their guidance may be just awful and the company will be showing Y/Y declines for the forseeable future.

    Disclosure: short
    Jul 28, 2014. 04:34 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Signs Point To Affirmation Of VirnetX $368M Jury Award Against Apple At CAFC [View article]
    Yes we all know that judge Davis was a big fan of VHC- too bad he is retiring and won't hear the next Apple case nor the new iteration of this case if it is remanded for a new trial or even new damages hearing.

    And of course that "smackdown" by some unhinged VHC bull really smarted while I watched the share price decline over the last two years at the same time the general market and especially the market for speculative stocks soared. Of course, over that time the risks I outlined played out and the legal winds have shifted against patent trolls like VHC significantly.

    Jeff, I am passing your message to the research service in question, I will leave it to their discretion as to whether to contact you or not. I am not allowed nor am I particularly inclined to pass along their research. FWIW their qualitative assessment of how the hearing went for VHC was also very negative, especially in regard to the apparent absurdity of calculating the royalty base off of a $29 software upgrade for a Mac computer vs. the entire price of an iOS device.
    Jul 8, 2014. 05:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Signs Point To Affirmation Of VirnetX $368M Jury Award Against Apple At CAFC [View article]
    Jeff, the stats I received are from a private research service so I am not at liberty to share them verbatim but they are directionally as I mentioned and not inconsistent with the stats you shared. One difference is the study you linked to refers only to precedential patent decisions when my second point refers to affirmations (including both precedential and non-precedential). I think if the verdict was going to be completely affirmed it would likely (but not definitely) be non-precedential but a precedential affirmation is a possibility. The good news is we will hopefully know who is right within a couple of months.
    Jul 8, 2014. 11:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Signs Point To Affirmation Of VirnetX $368M Jury Award Against Apple At CAFC [View article]
    From the stats I have seen the vast majority of complete affirmations are non-precedential and the majority of precedential decisions change at least some portion of the verdict but you are right that a precedential affirmation remains a possibility, I just think an unlikely one. VHC investors have consistently interpreted everything in the best possible light for VHC in a vacuum and been disappointed- for example, read the same author's article of two years ago claiming that an Apple settlement was likely and witness the horrible share price performance the last two years.
    Jul 8, 2014. 09:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Signs Point To Affirmation Of VirnetX $368M Jury Award Against Apple At CAFC [View article]
    I think you are making a huge unfounded leap and I expect the appeals court to make significant changes to the VHC decision. First, the damages issues discussed extensively at the appeals had nothing to do with "benchmark products" and everything to do with the "entire market value rule" and "Nash bargaining". These are the issues I expect the court to rule against VHC on.

    Second and most obviously, if they court had already decided as of April 25th that they were going to fully affirm the VHC decision, what is taking so long? I can think of no plausible reason why a simple affirmation would have stretched out this long especially with Rader's retirement if a decision had already been made. I have reviewed stats and simple affirmations come quickly while modifications and remands for new trials take longer. This case has gone on far longer than would be expected for a simple affirmation, especially if the evidence you cite was really evidence the court has already reached a decision.

    Disclosure: Still short VHC, which has played out more or less as expected since I wrote my two articles outlining the risks two years ago, and I expect the final nail in their coffin to come soon.
    Jul 8, 2014. 08:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • TechTarget: Google's Panda Crushes Visibility [View article]
    Well, the company has put out a press release that almost completely refutes this article and affirms quarterly and yearly guidance. I have enjoyed and agreed with many of your past articles but I think you were off base on this one.
    Jun 19, 2014. 03:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Veeva Systems: A Top 20 Competitive Displacement, Customer Dissatisfaction, DB Markets Research, And Strange Coincidences [View article]
    I should also disclose that I am short.
    Apr 10, 2014. 11:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Veeva Systems: A Top 20 Competitive Displacement, Customer Dissatisfaction, DB Markets Research, And Strange Coincidences [View article]
    Far be it from me to defend jackass sell-side analysts who promote crap like VEEV, but I should point out that I think DB is talking about CALENDAR 2015 (or Fiscal 2016) when they give the 8.5x EV/revenue number. The analyst is probably doing this so investors can make an easy comp to other SW companies with normal fiscal year ends. I see this mistake confusing people from time to time on VEEV. At any rate, only by recent bubble logic is even 8.5x next year's sales a "reasonable" multiple.

    Other than that great work on VEEV in general and figuring out that Interactive Medica had bagged a top 20 displacement. I had heard from some industry contacts that VEEV was actually weak in multichannel CRM and some smaller vendors were doing a better job there. I have also heard that VEEV is not as good of a solution in international (especially emerging) markets because it is really designed for an iPad and in many other countries they would rather their reps work from Android smartphones. Thus I doubt they will get the same level of success even in the international divisions of their existing top customers as they have in the U.S.
    Apr 10, 2014. 10:25 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Veeva Systems Is A Valuation Outlier, Even Within The SaaS Bubble [View article]
    Alphabetter, I think there is one subtlety you are missing that makes the comparison for Veeva look even worse. Veeva has a fiscal year ending January, so their fiscal 2014 is more accurately thought of as calendar 2013. They are supposed to do $205M for FY2014/CY 2013. So it isn't their calendar 2015 growth that is "only" 27%, it is their calendar 2014. So, the company is slowing down even faster than you think, it looks like their calendar 2014 growth rate will be right at the average for a SAAS company, with double the revenue multiple when it should arguably be a revenue multiple discount given their limited market.
    Jan 10, 2014. 11:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AVG: Feb 1st Google Policy Updates Threaten AVG's Growth Engine, Signals Steep Downside [View article]
    Interesting article. I don't understand your table though. If hypothetically Yahoo monetized at 100% of Google (no ill effect there) and 95% of users opted in (vs. the assumption that 95% don't opt out today, once again no ill effect there) shouldn't the platform revenue be $195M, or unchanged from the current estimate? The top left corner of your table starts at -31%.

    Also, it seems like the company will have to choose between lowering monetization with Yahoo, or adopting Google's new policies, but not both.
    Feb 5, 2013. 07:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Applied Micro: Starting To Look Like A Good Short [View article]
    Interesting idea, thanks. One problem with a short like this is that the "put up or shut up time" isn't until probably the 2H of CY 2013 when investors will expect to start seeing actual server revenue. Believe me, AMCC will be talking about design wins, plenty of semi companies do this but it is always hard to tell if they will go into significant production or not.

    Do you have any view on when they are likely to disappoint investors with the lack of server revenue?
    Dec 19, 2012. 07:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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