Value Geek

ViroPharma: Lev Acquisition Appraisal

Genedr : FDA will almost certainly approve Cinryze, given its wide use and excellent safety record in Europe. From the press releases I've read, it would appear that the acquisition is not contingent on FDA approval, since there is an additional payout on final approval, and Viropharma has already spent $20M buying up some Lev shares. I think there is an extremely high probability that this acquisition will be consummated. Certainly, Lev's current stock price suggests that arbitrageurs have a similar view.

The very bullish case for Lev rests on the outside chance that C1 INH will be helpful in myocardial infarction, which is of course a huge market. I believe that to date, only animal studies have taken place, and the results are conflicting, so this application is very very speculative and undeveloped.