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  • Tesla's Battery Storage Seems Economically Feasible [View article]
    snow sounds like an issue. cloudy days are not as efficient as sunny, but not that far off from sunny days.
    Apr 29, 2015. 02:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Battery Storage Seems Economically Feasible [View article]
    I think the $1 B illion or $2 T rillion dollar question is how big will the demand be (not who has the technology to supply it).

    IIRC Adam Jonas estimated this as a $2 trillion potential market. He may turn out to be wrong (or right)... just like those estimating low single digit billions. We're just going to have to watch the emerging demand picture among the three target markets for stationary storage.
    Apr 29, 2015. 01:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Battery Storage Seems Economically Feasible [View article]
    EST,

    nice idea looking at the lifecycle total utility of the battery pack. I think the question of the point it makes economic sense also needs to look at the case of using the pack to buy from the grid overnight at cheap prices and avoid paying peak use rates. Further, there's the value of the pack to the owner as a source of power during blackouts. One also needs to consider incentive programs from states and the federal government that make the economics more compelling... I'm not sure if these are direct to the consumer or the manufacturer.

    fwiw, I've seen a number of about $850 kWh as the point at which grid storage makes sense for the utilities. Nothing I've cracked open myself, but I think we'll be hearing some detail about these kinds of analyses after Thursday's announcement.
    Apr 29, 2015. 01:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Battery Storage Seems Economically Feasible [View article]
    LT, supply and demand. A product being a commodity does not mean it has low profit margins. If demand outstrips supply, margins can be very profitable... just look at oil.

    While there are other battery cell makers creating 18650s at costs similar to Tesla/Panasonic (and in some cases cheaper today, but those have questions about quality),

    1. No one else is putting them together into massive battery packs as Tesla is.

    2. The scale & improved logistics of the GF are expected to drop the price over 30% by 2017. New chemistry, design is expected to drop the cost over 50% by 2020, to under $100/kWh.

    3. No one else is making such massive moves into large battery packs for business, residential, and utilities. Remember, the 1 GF Tesla is starting with will produce as many lithium ion batteries as all the worlds total supply of these batteries last year (and the majority of that supply is still already being used in consumer electronic devices).

    So, Tesla is first to offer a supply of lithium ion battery packs to make this a substantial business. If Tesla is correct and demand massively outstrips there initial plans for supply, it wont matter if others jump in (unless they jump in at a scale of building dozens of GigaFactories in the next couple of years... hundreds of billions pouring in overnight? not going to happen).
    Apr 29, 2015. 12:33 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • About That BMW i5 And Its Impact On Tesla [View article]
    Anton,

    No offense, but the guy with a short position in Tesla who called the Dodge Challenger, BMW i3, Audi Diesel SUV, among another 3 or 4 cars EACH "THE Tesla Killer," simply is not the person I'm going to look to for analysis of BMW's future plans or any impact they may have on Tesla.
    Apr 27, 2015. 11:17 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Short Interest Hits 13-Month High [View article]
    thanks for including the chart showing the amount of Tesla shares sold short back to May of 2012. as is readily seen in the chart, shares sold short are less than their levels in 2012 when the stock was trading in the $20s.
    Apr 27, 2015. 02:02 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can You Really Trust Tesla? [View article]
    @Galt,

    in other words, you know of no evidence to back up Vance's claim. There have been other times senior executives have left Tesla in the past few years, and they received extensive media coverage. Why is there nothing on the alleged multiple dismissals in the months Vance wrote about?

    it's not the only suspect piece in Vance's house of cards, but it's an easy one to point out.
    Apr 22, 2015. 05:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can You Really Trust Tesla? [View article]
    Galt, let's stick with facts rather than change the subject to your presumptions.

    Can Vance (the author), or any of you name two senior executives Tesla let go from December 2012 to March 2013?
    Apr 21, 2015. 07:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can You Really Trust Tesla? [View article]
    Doesn't mean he reported what Elon said accurately or in context. The same for the rest of Vance's work.

    One simple example of suspect claims... Vance wrote that multiple senior executives were fired in this short-time frame late 2012/early 2013. Clearly that means at least two... can he name them?
    Apr 21, 2015. 03:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can You Really Trust Tesla? [View article]
    Paulo the problem with your thesis, is that you assume that the author of that book is writing what actually happened. He does have some factual information, but he pushes and pulls them to fit a narrative that never really happened and he includes gross distortions, and reshuffling of the timeline (Tesla was never on the verge of bankruptcy. Their orders and cancellations undoubtably were briefly affected by the bogus journalism of a NYTimes writer (something Vance omits), but the company was not on the verge of bankruptcy).

    Paulo, you can understand how someone can fictionalize in this manner based on motives other than describing events as they happened, right?
    Apr 21, 2015. 12:19 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Genius Of The Tesla 70D: Sell More Cars, Use Fewer Batteries [View article]
    LT, sorry bro. I came across some SEC filings, and, indeed, it appears you've taken in another ~$8 million in funds from investors on top of the original $2 million.

    I wish you all the best. I wont be convinced by claims I find to be intellectually false, but I do really wish you all the best!
    Apr 12, 2015. 02:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Genius Of The Tesla 70D: Sell More Cars, Use Fewer Batteries [View article]
    LT, I have a friend who works for Bloomberg, I'll have him look you up with one of their terminals.
    Apr 12, 2015. 12:09 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Genius Of The Tesla 70D: Sell More Cars, Use Fewer Batteries [View article]
    LT, as anyone who uses the link can see, this website says you had $2 million in funds to work with. It shows the last update to the page was 2/17/15. Of course, that doesn't explicitly indicate the AUM was updated that day, but there's no reason to take your assertion that the AUM is "significantly larger" now. I give people the benefit of the doubt on these things until they show me I'd be wiser not to.

    http://bit.ly/1ymxWeU

    fwiw, I wish you well on a personal level, and I don't intend to cause you discomfort. that said, if in the context of discussions of Tesla here you are going to suggest that you run a hedge fund, the facts about that are relevant.
    Apr 11, 2015. 10:04 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Genius Of The Tesla 70D: Sell More Cars, Use Fewer Batteries [View article]
    LT, personal attack? I don't think so. Here is a link showing your so-called hedge fund has $2 million in assets under management.

    http://bit.ly/1ymxWeU

    Here's a link to an article trying to give hope to would be hedge fund managers that Citi may have been wrong when they said a hedge fund must have $300 million in assets under management to survive. The gentleman with 30 years experience advising start up hedge funds they interviewed said as little as $25-50 million may be enough.

    http://read.bi/1ymvPrp

    as to my track record and age? In 1999 at 31 I had ~$140K, mostly in a 401K. In the following 16 years I've invested in exactly two individual stocks: Celgene in 1999 and Tesla in 2012. How'd that work for me? Well, let's just say my net worth today (after removing what I will owe in taxes on my gains) is a touch above two LT "hedge funds."

    funny, in the same post you accuse me of a personal attack, you call Andrea James a "moron." Have you confused your bear calls with Andrea's bull calls on Tesla?
    Apr 11, 2015. 08:42 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Tesla Valuation Using DCF Under 3 Scenarios - Part 2: Detailed Assumptions [View article]
    petteri, you wrote: "What is your point"

    My point is in the first response I wrote to Cyberbn in this little thread. The other automakers may well soon have the technology to make BEVs similar to Tesla, but for reasons I outlined in that earlier comment, they are far better off financially not doing this in all but token volumes any time soon. What's more they don't even have close to a trillion dollars to rapidly transition to BEVs. They will make plug-in hybrids, Tesla will make 200+ mile BEVs. Both will do well with these different strategies.
    Apr 11, 2015. 08:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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